Observations from the breakdown of Bucs record

Jack of Hearts was kind enough to provide a breakdown of Bucs baseball record in great detail in Buc's Tuesday thread. I noticed a couple things looking at it that I wanted to share. This is not a shot a Bucs, so please no one take it as such. Having a detailed breakdown of a winning player is a valuable resource, and one should look to learn from it.

Here's the first point of interest.

48% Plays -150/-159 13 14 -900
63% Plays -160/-169 5 3 182
100% Plays -170/-179 3 0 500
50% Plays -180/-189 1 1 11
0% Plays -190/-199 0 2 -782

Here lies the problem area for many baseball bettors. Much has been written and read about high favs. Even with as awsome a season as Bucs is having, which is as good as any I've ever seen, when you get to those -150 or higher favs you get a negative. (I know that my own plays and winning % did a lot better once I cut those out.)

Again, not a shot or even a suggestion to Bucs as to how to play, please just keep doing just exactly what you are doing. Just wanted to make the observations since having access to this type of record breakdown of a winning player in baseball can add a great deal of knowledge if you look at it closely.

Also notice that the bulk of the profits so far come from this area...

49% Plays +130/+139 25 26 1193
55% Plays +120/+129 23 19 1173
41% Plays +110/+119 26 37 -927
58% Plays +100/+109 52 38 3296
60% Plays -101/-109 34 23 2466
54% Plays -110/-119 36 31 -72
58% Plays -120/-129 36 26 979
67% Plays -130/-139 39 19 2206

IMHO, This really helps to drive home 2 rules of betting baseball. First, that high favorites are generally a bad idea (unless you're REALLY sure about the play), and second that small dogs, small favs, and close to even money plays really should make up the bulk of one's baseball action (again, in my own opinion).

Comments welcome.

Value is value. You can have value in a -170 and a +300 dog can be the most over priced game on the board. It all comes down to capping the game. Baseball is not about picking winners, its about finding value.

That's right Choptalk. But there are places where you are more/less likely to find that value than others.

chop,u r 100% correct.

I dont know because when I pick winners and win money, it's pretty valuable.

I have yet to understand some opinions around here.

GameBreaker said:

I dont know because when I pick winners and win money, it's pretty valuable.

I have yet to understand some opinions around here.

Click to expand...

Its very hard to explain the value principle GameBreaker. I will try my best to explain it in another way.

If you buy a powerball ticket for 1 dollar where the odds of winning the 20 million jackpot are 80 million to 1 even if you win the jackpot there was no technical value in your ticket. You just got damm lucky thats all. If you go to the casino and win a big jackpot at the slot machines you just got lucky plain and simple. No value whatsoever.
If someone came up to you and said I have a $100 dollar bill in one hand for $50 bucks the guy will give you 1 chance to guess which hand the $100 dollar bill is in. Even if you guess wrong there is value in that gamble.

You will certainly pick some easy winners on the -200 games but unless you are on the value side more times than not at the end of the year you are going to be in the negitive.

Intersting observations though, Omni. Are you the same person who posts at Fezzik's Place? All the best--- :drink:

Same guy. The only reason for the Xx's is that Fezzik's place won't allow a 4 letter only user name.