One thing that continuously makes me laugh...

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are these constant comments about people being on the "right side" of a game when they lose. I'm sorry but I think that comment is absolutely ridiculous. But let's look at this from a logical point of view.

First off, I'm making the assumption that the gamblers on this board place money on a game for one reason, and one reason only.....to make money (if that's not the case with you, ignore this thread because you'll only cloud the issue and it doesn't apply to you).

With that in mind, prior to the start of a game we can assume that no one knows the outcome (barring a "fixed" event). So, cappers use all sorts of stats to get an edge and increase their probability of winning (i.e. last 3 starts, umpires strike/balls ratio, injuries to key players, team batting average on the road, how the team hits against left handed pitchers, etc.). Hopefully, the more stats in a team's favor, the higher probability for a win. Again, this is prior to the start of the game.

When the game is over, you can predict with 100% accuracy who the winner is, right? And again, the winning side is the side we all want to be on, right? Therefore, why in the world would someone saying at the conclusion of the game that even though we lost, we were on the right side? And it doesn't matter if you got a bad beat (i.e bad calls, bad bounce on a ball, fan interference, etc.). The comment is just stupid, because the game is over and the winner is determined with 100% accuracy. You don't cash tickets on bad beats. Admitedly, I could understand if someone said they would bet the same way again next time because overall the one team played better so they think the outcome would be different the next time around. But to say you are on the right side when the outcome is already determined just makes no sense to me.
 

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If there were 10 poker chips in hat and I told you that 8 of them were red...and 2 were black.What color would you guess youd pull out if I gave you one shot? If you pulled a black and restarted the challenge would you pick black the second time? To pick the red is the "right" move IMO though youre not guaranteed of winning.

Its all about the percieved CHANCES..anything can happen in baseball (any sport for that matter) but its not a coin toss.
 

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Not following your response....

in relation to what my original post was about....saying it was "the right side" AFTER knowing the result. In your example, the right side was the black side AFTER you made the pull, but anyone would pick the red before because their probability prior to the pull would be 80%. But if you allowed me to make my decision after the pull, I would chose the color that came out everytime (wouldn't you?). Therefore, the comment being on "the right side" after you know the result is stupid.

BASEHEAD said:
If there were 10 poker chips in hat and I told you that 8 of them were red...and 2 were black.What color would you guess youd pull out if I gave you one shot? If you pulled a black and restarted the challenge would you pick black the second time? To pick the red is the "right" move IMO though youre not guaranteed of winning.

Its all about the percieved CHANCES..anything can happen in baseball (any sport for that matter) but its not a coin toss.
 

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Lets just agree to disagree shall we.
 

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Body...It's just perception! Earlier this season there was a KC game that somebody had the Under 9.5 and it was 1-1 going into extra innings. They lost the bet......but you don't think that the under was the right call? 99 out of a 100 times that game stays under but not that day. If he said he was on the right side of that bet I would have to agree. He may have lost on a bad beat that day but the right call was UNDER! I know you disagree but just my .02 cents.
 

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Claiming one was "on the right side" after losing is just a convenient way to complain about the loss.....as if they played another 8 times we'd now be 8-1..

In the poker chip analogy one would be insane to pick black and two chips unless one was getting good odds to make up for the deficit of blacks....

Shit happens, sometimes all the handicapping doesn't matter because of turnovers, errors.....small things that can't accurately be factored in determine the outcome of the event.....it's the nature of the beast, this gambling...

There are no locks and "the right side" is determined after the game.
 

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"He may have lost on a bad beat that day but the right call was UNDER!"

Under didn't get paid.

The right side gets the money.
 

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Exactly!!!

You got it Marco! That's all I was saying. "There are no locks and "the right side" is determined after the game"...couldn't have said it better myself.

Marco said:
Claiming one was "on the right side" after losing is just a convenient way to complain about the loss.....as if they played another 8 times we'd now be 8-1..

In the poker chip analogy one would be insane to pick black and two chips unless one was getting good odds to make up for the deficit of blacks....

Shit happens, sometimes all the handicapping doesn't matter because of turnovers, errors.....small things that can't accurately be factored in determine the outcome of the event.....it's the nature of the beast, this gambling...

There are no locks and "the right side" is determined after the game.
 

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And BillyJo....

You know I'm just having fun with too, right? No hard feelings (wasn't looking for a heated debate, but have always found that comment funny to me)

BillyJo36 said:
Body...It's just perception! Earlier this season there was a KC game that somebody had the Under 9.5 and it was 1-1 going into extra innings. They lost the bet......but you don't think that the under was the right call? 99 out of a 100 times that game stays under but not that day. If he said he was on the right side of that bet I would have to agree. He may have lost on a bad beat that day but the right call was UNDER! I know you disagree but just my .02 cents.
 

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Yes I understand and I like debates like this....you have a very good point but I can see why someone would say " I was on the right side " when they lost. I have felt like that way a few times. Very good discussion subject and I wish more people would chime in on this because to me this is very interesting. As long as people are respectful of someone elses opinion it's all for the fun of it. Good Topic!!!
 

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Its all relative to how that particular capper feels about that particular game.If I give myself an 80% chance of winning a game based on all the criteria I can find then even on a beat (bad or other wise) given the circumstances over again Id make the same bet most likely.That to me is what represents being on the right side.Wagering is a winding road not made up of one game.I base alot of plays on the same type of info to come to conclusions of what I deem to be the right plays.B/C I lose the game doesnt mean I have come up with the wrong bet.I just lost THAT TIME.If you know what I mean?
 

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BASEHEAD said:
If there were 10 poker chips in hat and I told you that 8 of them were red...and 2 were black.What color would you guess youd pull out if I gave you one shot? If you pulled a black and restarted the challenge would you pick black the second time? To pick the red is the "right" move IMO though youre not guaranteed of winning.

Its all about the percieved CHANCES..anything can happen in baseball (any sport for that matter) but its not a coin toss.

the guy lays it out for a child to understand, & you still cannot understand it?

:icon_conf :monsters-
 

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what "irks" me is people who don't realize that just because you won a play doesn't mean you made a good play on the game

with CFB season starting soon there will be A TON of people who will post their "CFB Teaser" plays - and expect us all to stand aside and applaud them for their "great" pick - when in reality - we should blast them for making a DUMB pick - for teasing CFB games is probably the SINGLE DUMBEST thing ANY player can do - yet allegedly smart people come in here all the time and tell us about their CFB tease play. they fail to reazlize that over the long run - if they played their plays "normally" instead of teasing they'd be a lot better off for most CFB teasers would win as regular parlays

or how about someone who is happy they took an NHL dog @ -.5/-140, which is probably the single WORST single game play one can make. the game will end tied and they will win their bet and rejoice - while the player who took the dog on the ML +100 gets a push and doesn't win their bet. in this case - the ML player made the RIGHT play and the Puckline player made the wrong play - even though he is cashing a ticket

or how about someone who comes in here during NFL season and tells us how he teased the Steelers from -4 to -2 and now has the Steelers -2 -160! ARE YOUKIDDING ME! you want me to tell you that is a great play? i don't care if the steelers win by 3 and you win your play - that is a DUMB BET! if you don't like the steelers -4 simply walk away from the side and don't play it - don't buy down that much.

in the long run - if you bet bad lines and make stupid plays - you will not be gambling very long because eventually those bad plays will lose and you will be broke.
 

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Now thats a whole other debate.....that Ill admit bothers me too.

Teasers/Parlays (2 teams Ill buy it....3+ teams, get your rabbits foot out) all sucker bets and have large luck factor involved.
 

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WinkyDuck is, in essence, disagreeing with the original post of this thread.

bodyforlife said:
>>>Admitedly, I could understand if someone said they would bet the same way again next time because overall the one team played better so they think the outcome would be different the next time around.<<<

Then you understand what they mean when they say that they were on the 'right' side but the right side lost. You are correct with all you say except that the random stuff you mentioned from flu to fan interference to a ball off the elbow of your starting pitcher to your pitcher (idiot) getting ejected for arguing with an umpire. You can't foresee or cap that. So, the team you should have been on can lose. All people are saying when they say "Well, you lost but you were on the right side today" is what you mentioned in your quote above.

Now, I will also say that everyone on here and their dog would say "I wish I had been on the wrong side and won." But, that goes without saying. Would it make you understand all of us better if we said that? I will tell you that not one guy on here will disagree with me on the following so I will speak for all of us:

"When the wrong side wins we all wish we had been on the wrong side!"

Someday, I may take a page out of here to share my theory on how the 'random' events in games/surrounding games never help the 'correct' side. In short, the theory is based on the simple statement that "the correct side should win the game and there are no degrees of winning a game." tulsa
 

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Winky

We`re a tad off the thread subj. here, but you opened up one of my pet peaves also. Teasing CFB I can`t count the times when I first started and would win a 3 tm 6 pt tease for x amount when if I had just parlayed it would have won anyway and paid many times over. Now one of my fav. bets NFL 2 tm, 6 Pt. We know that no betting entity i.. Casino or SB is going to give us the best of it odds wise. Only an odds bet on craps excepted. Now this particular tease if used correctly can be a $$ maker. Never "cross the line" i.e. if tm A is -2 don`t go to + 4, instead take the dog +8 thereby crossing all the "keys" 3,4,6,&7. This bet can only be found @ even money at very few books, maybe 1 in 10, most are 11/10 or even 6/5. I`ve been doing it for yrs and made $$ at it. Sorry if I digressed.
 

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winkyduck said:
what "irks" me is people who don't realize that just because you won a play doesn't mean you made a good play on the game

with CFB season starting soon there will be A TON of people who will post their "CFB Teaser" plays - and expect us all to stand aside and applaud them for their "great" pick - when in reality - we should blast them for making a DUMB pick - for teasing CFB games is probably the SINGLE DUMBEST thing ANY player can do - yet allegedly smart people come in here all the time and tell us about their CFB tease play. they fail to reazlize that over the long run - if they played their plays "normally" instead of teasing they'd be a lot better off for most CFB teasers would win as regular parlays

or how about someone who is happy they took an NHL dog @ -.5/-140, which is probably the single WORST single game play one can make. the game will end tied and they will win their bet and rejoice - while the player who took the dog on the ML +100 gets a push and doesn't win their bet. in this case - the ML player made the RIGHT play and the Puckline player made the wrong play - even though he is cashing a ticket

or how about someone who comes in here during NFL season and tells us how he teased the Steelers from -4 to -2 and now has the Steelers -2 -160! ARE YOUKIDDING ME! you want me to tell you that is a great play? i don't care if the steelers win by 3 and you win your play - that is a DUMB BET! if you don't like the steelers -4 simply walk away from the side and don't play it - don't buy down that much.

in the long run - if you bet bad lines and make stupid plays - you will not be gambling very long because eventually those bad plays will lose and you will be broke.




I like how you conveniently leave out all the chalk you lay in college baseball including that ridiculous homer pick laying 500 on CSF claiming there was still "value". Give me a break.
 

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BASEHEAD said:
If there were 10 poker chips in hat and I told you that 8 of them were red...and 2 were black.What color would you guess youd pull out if I gave you one shot? If you pulled a black and restarted the challenge would you pick black the second time? To pick the red is the "right" move IMO though youre not guaranteed of winning.

Its all about the percieved CHANCES..anything can happen in baseball (any sport for that matter) but its not a coin toss.


This is a very good analogy Basehead. You have it figured out. Lets look at it like this.

Lets say the Yankees are -1000 just to be hypothetical. If you are dumb enough to bet any baseball team at -1000 and you win the bet trust me you are on the wrong side even if the Yankees win the game 100-0. I know this is a very extreme example but I hope you understand the principle. You can get all exited about winning your Yankees -1000 bet but I promise you if you make this type of play all season you will get crushed over the longhaul.
I make many bets over the corse of the baseball season where I consider myself having less than a 50% chance of winning just because I know im on the value side.

Since my low point of the season unit wise I was up only 9 units in baseball in late MAY. I was 17 games over .500 in late MAY. now im only 23 games over .500 but im up almost 70 units on the season!!!!

Like I always say, baseball is not about picking winners, its about being on the side of value.
 

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