For what it's worth, I initially liked the Mets and now I am going to 'no play' that one. But, my only reasoning is that already mentioned by Clip Joint in this thread and the line is low enough to (I know they don't exist) make me think trap line. Now whatever causes me to say 'trap' line, even though I have from a good source there is no such thing, seems to work for me and the dynamics always look like this one whatever you call it. Call it a tulsa line if you don't believe in trap lines. This line has the taint of something too good to be true and I am worried that it is a tulsa line. tulsa
Tulsa said:
The "trap" or "good line" is in the eye of the handicapper...when you handicap the game using strictly stats, Colorado is a slight favorite. Public opinion on Colorado just being a bad team coupled with the Mets as a playoff contender makes the public believe the Mets should be a huge favorite.
Why would the Mets be a big favorite when they win 42% of their road games?
There is more to the line then the starters, the Mets just played an "easy series" at home and travelled further after yesterdays game from New York versus the Rockies who are comming home after play what most would consider a " tuff series" from Pittsburg.
I think on a nuetral field, both teams rested, the line would most likely be -155
I think on a nuetral field, both teams rested, the line would most likely be -155
Mets are 14-16 (-5.1 units) against teams with a losing record
Mets are 19-26 (-5.2 units) on the road
Mets are 2-6 (-3.4 units) in Glavine's road starts and 7-4 (+1.9 units) in his home starts
There are plenty of stats you could use to make a case for the Mets in this matchup too, but these are just a few that jump out as far as being careful when playing the Mets as a road favorite.
Mets are 19-26 (-5.2 units) on the road
Mets are 2-6 (-3.4 units) in Glavine's road starts and 7-4 (+1.9 units) in his home starts
There are plenty of stats you could use to make a case for the Mets in this matchup too, but these are just a few that jump out as far as being careful when playing the Mets as a road favorite.
Clip Joint said:
>>>Public opinion on Colorado just being a bad team coupled with the Mets as a playoff contender makes the public believe the Mets should be a huge favorite.<<<
Maybe that is what makes the dynamics of the lines in question....what can be called a 'too good to be true' line (from the surface examination, not with in-depth analysis at all.) I agree wholeheartedly with you, and when I see this situation, I avoid it. I still believe you that there are no 'trap' plays set by linesmakers but for want of a better name....? A fool's line? Not that you guy's on the Mets are fool's I just wonder what we should call these situations when a line looks like a gift from above (I KNOW none of those exist.) tulsa
>>>Public opinion on Colorado just being a bad team coupled with the Mets as a playoff contender makes the public believe the Mets should be a huge favorite.<<<
Maybe that is what makes the dynamics of the lines in question....what can be called a 'too good to be true' line (from the surface examination, not with in-depth analysis at all.) I agree wholeheartedly with you, and when I see this situation, I avoid it. I still believe you that there are no 'trap' plays set by linesmakers but for want of a better name....? A fool's line? Not that you guy's on the Mets are fool's I just wonder what we should call these situations when a line looks like a gift from above (I KNOW none of those exist.) tulsa
Tulsa said:
I hear what you are saying...but I think you are missing my point. Not many sharp bettors see this as a gift line on the Mets...it is a gift line on Colorado. So my point is the "gift" is in the eye of the beholder. I can't see how it would be called a "gift" or a "trap" when not everyone thinks the Mets are the one getting the good line.
I have the Mets tonight. The Rox are .500 at home, but I don't think their starter gets past the 5th no matter what. If NY doesn't hammer him early, they still are likely to get some real shots at the Rox middle relief, which probably should be called middle disaster.
Having said all that, with Glavine, you always have to sweat inning number one. The guy is frequently slammed in the first and your whole perspective on the game can be changed in 15 minutes.
Having said all that, with Glavine, you always have to sweat inning number one. The guy is frequently slammed in the first and your whole perspective on the game can be changed in 15 minutes.
