ideas for Monday 7/25

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This is not so much a pick, but an observation.
3 games tonight got super heavy juice. DBacks at Brewers, Indians at A's, BoSox at Ass Rays. My crappy book has the Brewers with Sheets at -11, Sox with Wells at -11, & A's with Zito -11. Yes i need a better book.
Point is, although you're taking the same money risk, you are getting backed by totally different teams & situations. Would you rather have Zito at home laying 2-1 against a playoff contender? Sheets & Brewers, a bad team playing a god awful team? or the World Series champs led by David wells, playing against another god awful team?
IMO the Sox game could just as easily be priced -20 instead of -10. But if I find any value in these 3 plays, the best value has to be with Wells & the world series champion Red Sox. Wells has the most run support in the majors, 8.7 runs per game. The TB starting pitcher is coming off injury to his pitching index finger. It's a stretch, but i think the Sox have a better chance winning the game than the expected risk on a -11 play (69% expected win factor) I would put the Sox at 80%, giving this huge line the value i look for.
The 20% chance of loss is due to TB being hot right now, sweeping the Orioles. That's hard to analyze because so much of that is based on Orioles playing like putrid high school team. But Rays are not beating Davis Wells. WIll Waechter hold those Red Sox bats at bay? I'll lay 2-1 & take my chances.
Take Sox to win -11 over Ass Rays to make money tonight.
Good luck! -JDub :103631605
 

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Figures.
Brewers win 4-2. Oakland up 10-2 in the fifth, & the Red Sox lose 3-4. I picked the lone LOSER.
:hump:
How can a triple A pitcher off an injury facing the Red Sox outpitch David Wells facing the Devil Rays?
You hope for a nice blow-out, a tidy predictable outcome. Instead you have your bankroll riding the game like a plinko chip, hoping it doesn't fall against you. Somehow, that plinko chip knows your plight & kicks you right in the jimmy.
:lolBIG:
 

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