Math experts please respond

Search

FreeRyanFerguson.com
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,308
Tokens
Tonight, I was playing poker with this business statistics professor at Tennessee Tech. He was talking about how he had just left the blackjack table, because on his first hand, the guy next to him stood at 14, when the dealer was showing 10. He said "that kind of shit pisses him off." I asked him why it pisses him off, and he said that if all players aren't playing the right way, then it gives the house a lot bigger of an advantage. I said that I disagreed, and that what the other players do has nothing to do with his hand. I said that all that a bad move does is put that particular player at an even larger disadvantage, and that his bad moves help other players sometimes, and hurt other players sometimes. He basically told me that I was an idiot, and that I should try reading a book and learning something about the game. He said that he has a Phd with a 4.0 GPA, and that it's very simple math. That if a player is giving the house a larger edge, then it affects everyone at the table. I told him that I have read books, and that they back me up on my position. I also said that basic strategy assumes a random and neutral deck, and that in actuality, the deck is almost never neutral. I explained that if you're counting cards, the optimum play sometimes varies greatly from the basic strategy play. He said, "oh, well you never mentioned counting cards. They'll kick you out for doing that."

I think that this guy is the biggest moron I've ever come into contact with. Am I right? He says he has a Phd with a 4.0, so I just want to throw this out there and see what you guys think. I was polite, but the guy pissed me off, and of course all the idiots at the table agreed with him, because 99% of people in casinos are idiots. I then proceeded to take all their money and leave. Thanks for coming!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
24
Tokens
#1 rule of thumb is that people who brag the most are usually the most full of shit. The guy probably took a few algebra courses at community college with a c avergae.

You were absolutely correct there. Everything evens out in the long run.
 

New member
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Messages
2,574
Tokens
You're right guys an idiot.

But I bet a lot of Blackjack players believe this myth.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 12, 2004
Messages
253
Tokens
Players' decisions CAN affect the rest of the table:

Take a situation where a player has 12 vs the dealer 10. If the player stands then the composition of the deck remains the same. But if the player hits, if the card is a high card he doesn't take another, but if it is a low card he could hit again. Over a long run if the player decided to hit out then the composition of the remaining deck is skewed towards less low cards, because of those situations where the player could get hit with two (or more) low cards, which could never happen if he got hit with a high card because in that case the hand would be over immediately and he wouldn't be taking a second card.
 

Respect My Steez
Joined
Feb 15, 2005
Messages
6,453
Tokens
You hear this from Blackjack players a lot where "a guy took a hit that he shouldn't have and got my face card I needed". But next time the guy may take a hit he shouldn't have and he gets the crappy 4 that you would have gotten. It's random and gives no advantage/disadvantage to the othe rplayers in the long run.

Having a PHD and a 4.0 doesn't make you a genius. Just means you worked hard. Intelligence and the grades you get in school are not intertwined.
 

Smells like victory!
Joined
Sep 20, 2002
Messages
1,429
Tokens
Tell him that if he were so smart (phd and 4.0) he could get a better job than Tennessee Tech. Small school in a small town - Cookeville I think.

Ask him if he wants to play some heads up BJ with you dealing.

He is a know it all , who is wrong
 

Having the time of my life!!
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
2,012
Tokens
Prof is an idiot but however MANY BJ players would agree and would not want to play at same table w/the guy who does not play the game "the correct way". While that bad player is not playing basic strategy, it mathmatically does not effect your basic strategy (drawing when dlr has 7 up or more and you are at 16 or less and not drawing when dlr has a 6 up and you have less than 16).....Just the rub of the game.....BUT I ALSO WOULD LEAVE ANY TABLE THAT HAD AN IDIOT like the guy the prof was talkin bout....just pisses you off to see someone like that take the dlrs card when a 10 would have busted the dlr...but you never get mad when that guy takes a 4 or 5 when it would have helped the dlr!!!
 

J-Man Rx NFL Pick 4 Champion for 2005
Joined
Apr 20, 2001
Messages
9,231
Tokens
CedarCreaker said:
Prof is an idiot but however MANY BJ players would agree and would not want to play at same table w/the guy who does not play the game "the correct way". While that bad player is not playing basic strategy, it mathmatically does not effect your basic strategy (drawing when dlr has 7 up or more and you are at 16 or less and not drawing when dlr has a 6 up and you have less than 16).....Just the rub of the game.....BUT I ALSO WOULD LEAVE ANY TABLE THAT HAD AN IDIOT like the guy the prof was talkin bout....just pisses you off to see someone like that take the dlrs card when a 10 would have busted the dlr...but you never get mad when that guy takes a 4 or 5 when it would have helped the dlr!!!
Trust me, the so called Prof is wrong but I also just can't stand playing BJ with idiots. It just seems to ruin my fun !
 

Triple digit silver kook
Joined
Mar 1, 2005
Messages
13,697
Tokens
The professor is equally ignorant if he believes if a football player dropping a pass in Chicago means it is more likely another football player in Phoenix will drop the next pass thrown.

It is aggravating when other players play poorly, but it doesnt change the results. For everytime they help the table by taking a bad card and helping the count, there will be a time when they will hurt the table by taking a card and hurting the count.

I am a stock trader by profession. From experiences, most college professors are next to clueless how the stock market operates. They dont realize that the stock market is moved by emotions and not only financial statements. They are some of the best fades in the stock market.

This guy better be only an online poker player, for he would get cranked in a live cash game.

He can keep his 4.0 and use it to teach other future squares. Thus, us rx faithful will always have money in the bank and we shall never be hungry.

May we all enjoy this fine day!

:muscles: THERX RULES! :baba:
 

New member
Joined
Dec 29, 2004
Messages
192
Tokens
You are correct Ilini.


Other's players decisions IN THE LONG RUN will not affect your results.

Obviously in the short term, if the player stands and then you get a card that busts you, and wouldn't of if the other player hit, this affects you for this one hand.

However, the other players bad play may also help you in a particular hand, by leaving a good card for you.

This will balance out in the long run, mathematically speaking tending towards your long run average or expected result.

I in college studied math, and particular did a lot of research in game theory similar to this, and similar thoeries to this have been proven in a lot of research papers, although, I don't know if any are on the net now as it would be fun to see it in print.
 

FreeRyanFerguson.com
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
13,308
Tokens
The Nuts said:
You are correct Ilini.


Other's players decisions IN THE LONG RUN will not affect your results.

Obviously in the short term, if the player stands and then you get a card that busts you, and wouldn't of if the other player hit, this affects you for this one hand.

However, the other players bad play may also help you in a particular hand, by leaving a good card for you.

This will balance out in the long run, mathematically speaking tending towards your long run average or expected result.

I in college studied math, and particular did a lot of research in game theory similar to this, and similar thoeries to this have been proven in a lot of research papers, although, I don't know if any are on the net now as it would be fun to see it in print.

Thanks, man. If there is any way you could get those research papers to me, that would be awesome. I'd love to go back tonight with fellow Rxers and gang up on that 450 pound loud mouth POS. I'd also like to bet the guy 10 grand that he's wrong.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 12, 2004
Messages
253
Tokens
From the above example I gave before, a player 12 vs dealer 10:
If the player decides to hit until >16, there are three possible outcomes...
He can hit one high card, he can hit one low card followed by a high card, or he can hit with two (or more) low cards.
He cannot hit with more than one high card because the first high card would end all his hitting.
However he could possibly hit with more than one low card.
If the player decides to not hit the composition of the deck remains unchanged. But should he decide to hit then over the long run the deck's composition will be skewed slightly towards less low cards remaining in the deck.
The player's decision to hit or stand affects the composition of the remainder of the deck/shoe, so therefore the professor was right and you are all wrong.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,799
Tokens
I learned this lesson in life a little earlier than most...just because someone is smart or even a genious does not preclude them from being wrong, especially about things that are not directly in their expertise.

My friend's Psycology professor opened up his class by saying that we only use 10% of our brains (to prove some point). That's a myth. Smart guy, but also wrong...usually because people believe what they are told.

Another example...PBS, which is public brodcasting and always has lost of informative prorams on full of facts an learning (they even have PBS in some schools)...saw a special they did on the moon, and they too repeated the myth that the great wall of China was the only man made object that could be seen from the moon. Great program, but again in error on that fact.

This math prof is probably pretty smart, but is just repeating the myth. He may have even heard it from another math prof that didn't really know jack, so in his mind he's got himself and this other "genius" backing him up. The more you see things like this happening in life, the more you realize how much even smart people are sometimes full of it!
 

International Playa
Joined
Dec 15, 2003
Messages
10,183
Tokens
I have been saying this for years and this seems liek the FIRST time where the majority of the people agree! Finally!
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
It shouldn't make much difference long-term.

What a bad player does is ruin the table in another way. The table becomes tense and not fun to play at. I'd rather have a table where people are enjoying themselves, it's a better overall experience.
 

Siempre vive RX
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
2,765
Tokens
Number 13 said:
From the above example I gave before, a player 12 vs dealer 10:
If the player decides to hit until >16, there are three possible outcomes...
He can hit one high card, he can hit one low card followed by a high card, or he can hit with two (or more) low cards.
He cannot hit with more than one high card because the first high card would end all his hitting.
However he could possibly hit with more than one low card.
If the player decides to not hit the composition of the deck remains unchanged. But should he decide to hit then over the long run the deck's composition will be skewed slightly towards less low cards remaining in the deck.
The player's decision to hit or stand affects the composition of the remainder of the deck/shoe, so therefore the professor was right and you are all wrong.

#13, you did a great job explaining this and proving that hitting on a low total over time will decrease the number of small cards in the shoe. But it all depends on what your hand is whether the dearth of small cards helps or hurts you, so one cannot say that this will necessarily "hurt" the table in the long run. Each card and hand is random, and it will help some hands and hurt others.
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
Funny that these bad card players are disliked at the BJ table, but welcome ( usually) at the poker table.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,780
Messages
13,438,957
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com