MLB Wed, Jul 27, 2005
Heat stroke: Weather burning unders?
Josh Hansen
Tearing the stitching off baseball’s like there’s a golden ticket hidden inside, the Florida Marlins are one of baseball’s hottest teams since the All-Star break.
The news couldn`t be better for over backers.
Still thirsty from their first half drought, those taking the over are beginning to see a ray of light in the spark Florida has shown since the Midsummer Classic. The Marlins have scored a total of 75 runs in just 11 games, playing over the total 10 times along the way.
“Now, we`re hitting,” said Marlins manager Jack McKeon after his teams 16-1 trouncing of the San Francisco Giants. “The pitching hasn`t been as sharp. Pretty soon, they will fall into place.``
Later than sooner hope over backers. Combined with their 10th-ranked offense, Florida is the league’s second best over bet in baseball’s offensively-starved league. With such notables as Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett throwing the fire for the fish, oddsmakers have shown double-digit totals only three times in Florida’s 97 games this season.
Over backers should consider themselves lucky. The Marlins are just one of six MLB teams to have a better record against the over than the under this season.
According to ESPN.com, the number of runs scored through July 27 is down five percent from this time last year, while the number of balls leaving the park has dropped for the third consecutive year.
It`s meant lower totals than usual for bettors this season, with some dipping below the seven-run mark. Although that may sound like an easy play, the cold air and lack of humidity the early months in baseball brought, helped the under clean up in May and June.
July could be a different story.
"I would say the best value with the unders is gone," says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky.
“I’m not willing to play under 7 ½ runs when my starter is going to be fatigued because of the weather conditions,” he says. “When the temperature rises, the runs scored rises, it’s just that simple.”
Sounds simple enough. Baseballs travel further in the hot, humid air summer brings to ballparks around the league. So while bettors may be busy pointing fingers at the crackdown on steroids, better pitching or RFK Stadium, they shouldn’t leave out Mother Nature.
“The ball carries better in warmer weather, while pitchers tend to last longer in ballgames when it’s cooler versus when it’s hot,” says Sevransky.
“You put those factors together and you see, in general, the unders have a little bit more success early in the season and overs have more success here in the hot summer months.”
Seems to be the case for the Marlins. Since the calendar turned to July, the Marlins have played over the total 17 times in 20 games, including 15 straight.
Take one look at the opposition in that run and you’ll see why. Florida played six games at Dolphin Stadium in Miami before embarking on a 10-game road swing with stops at Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, Arizona, and San Francisco.
Except for their stop in hitter-friendly Philadelphia, the Marlins played all their games in hot, humid weather.
Those who missed the boat on the Marlins` run may still have time to hop aboard. One Betcom.com oddsmaker says humidity and the barometric pressure play a bigger role in games than the wind - which most oddsmakers typically use most.
"I don’t know if linesmakers are up on this or not because they all think the main part is the wind blowing in and out,” says Rick, who preferred to not use his surname.
"I would say the total should get higher with the temperatures, but I dunno whether they’ll make them higher or not."
Heat stroke: Weather burning unders?
Josh Hansen
Tearing the stitching off baseball’s like there’s a golden ticket hidden inside, the Florida Marlins are one of baseball’s hottest teams since the All-Star break.
The news couldn`t be better for over backers.
Still thirsty from their first half drought, those taking the over are beginning to see a ray of light in the spark Florida has shown since the Midsummer Classic. The Marlins have scored a total of 75 runs in just 11 games, playing over the total 10 times along the way.
“Now, we`re hitting,” said Marlins manager Jack McKeon after his teams 16-1 trouncing of the San Francisco Giants. “The pitching hasn`t been as sharp. Pretty soon, they will fall into place.``
Later than sooner hope over backers. Combined with their 10th-ranked offense, Florida is the league’s second best over bet in baseball’s offensively-starved league. With such notables as Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett throwing the fire for the fish, oddsmakers have shown double-digit totals only three times in Florida’s 97 games this season.
Over backers should consider themselves lucky. The Marlins are just one of six MLB teams to have a better record against the over than the under this season.
According to ESPN.com, the number of runs scored through July 27 is down five percent from this time last year, while the number of balls leaving the park has dropped for the third consecutive year.
It`s meant lower totals than usual for bettors this season, with some dipping below the seven-run mark. Although that may sound like an easy play, the cold air and lack of humidity the early months in baseball brought, helped the under clean up in May and June.
July could be a different story.
"I would say the best value with the unders is gone," says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky.
“I’m not willing to play under 7 ½ runs when my starter is going to be fatigued because of the weather conditions,” he says. “When the temperature rises, the runs scored rises, it’s just that simple.”
Sounds simple enough. Baseballs travel further in the hot, humid air summer brings to ballparks around the league. So while bettors may be busy pointing fingers at the crackdown on steroids, better pitching or RFK Stadium, they shouldn’t leave out Mother Nature.
“The ball carries better in warmer weather, while pitchers tend to last longer in ballgames when it’s cooler versus when it’s hot,” says Sevransky.
“You put those factors together and you see, in general, the unders have a little bit more success early in the season and overs have more success here in the hot summer months.”
Seems to be the case for the Marlins. Since the calendar turned to July, the Marlins have played over the total 17 times in 20 games, including 15 straight.
Take one look at the opposition in that run and you’ll see why. Florida played six games at Dolphin Stadium in Miami before embarking on a 10-game road swing with stops at Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, Arizona, and San Francisco.
Except for their stop in hitter-friendly Philadelphia, the Marlins played all their games in hot, humid weather.
Those who missed the boat on the Marlins` run may still have time to hop aboard. One Betcom.com oddsmaker says humidity and the barometric pressure play a bigger role in games than the wind - which most oddsmakers typically use most.
"I don’t know if linesmakers are up on this or not because they all think the main part is the wind blowing in and out,” says Rick, who preferred to not use his surname.
"I would say the total should get higher with the temperatures, but I dunno whether they’ll make them higher or not."
