How to Figure Out the EV of a Bonus

Hey Sharps

Well with football around the corner, and likely lots of juicy bonuses too, I'm tring to figure out what the value of a bonus is. Is there an easier way than what I've done here?

Lets take WWTS which has a 20% 1K max bonus that must be rolled over 5 times. So we deposit $5k and get $1K added so we owe them $30k in action. I'm going to assume standard -110 lines.

1) Assuming a 50% capper (or we just randomly guess):

Losing picks (50%): 15k to win 13,636: LOSE 15k
Winning picks (50%): 15K to win 13,636: WIN 13,636

Net Wagering Result: -1,364
Net Result: -364 (with Bonus of $1k added)

EV: -364/5000 = x/100; X=-7.28%. (?)

2) Assume a 51% capper

Losing picks (49%): LOSE 14,700
Winning picks (51%): 15,300 to win 13,909: WIN 13,909

Net Wagering Result: -791
Net Result: +209 (bonus of 1k added)

EV: 209/5000=x/100; X=+4.48%

Do I just have to go through every % like this or is there something easier, and even more importantly, is this correct? I feel like I'm missing something (like if you're winning the bonus will get compounded)

Thanks.

Joeflex

yea it can be somewhat complicated...what exactly are you trying to figure out?

seems kinda "academic" to want to know what the EV of a bonus is...are you trying to compare offers or something?

Response

Just trying to see how much extra EV I'd get with these bonuses, so basically learn how to see if there is any edge at all with just picking blindly.

Joeflex said:

Do I just have to go through every % like this or is there something easier, and even more importantly, is this correct? I feel like I'm missing something (like if you're winning the bonus will get compounded)

Click to expand...

Joe looks like your calculations are spot on.

You can use x as the winning fraction then (1-x) is the losing fraction. Then use b for the bonus fraction (0.20) in your case and R for the rollover (5X in your case).

Total action is then R(1+b). Wins are R(1+b)(1.909)x for -110 action and losses R(1+b)(1-x). You can plug this into a spreadsheet and put in the values for R, b, and x to compare offers.

Hope this helps.

Clarification

Thanks for responding.

Why is B a fraction though? And why 1+B? Shouldn't B be the total bonus and then I multiply that by the wagering requirement? Still trying to figure this thing out.

Joeflex