Honestly Newport to say that there are some big dogs is an understatement. I love big dogs, but today's card does not fit like a time to be able to pick and choose one of them. The biggest dog I see that is a good value is Colorado at +130/+135.
Here is my reasoning against the big dogs today
NYM at Houston:
Number 1 fact that Oswalt is team record at home is 10-1
Best home record in Baseball
9-3 at home vs. lhp
NOTHING TO LEAN TOWARDS NEW YORK
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Second or Third best home record in Atlanta
Smoltz is 7-3 at home and is life time 5-2 against Pittsburgh
Home plate umpires seems to favor home teams
NOTHING TO LEAN TOWARDS PITT
Anaheim at New York
Bootcheck inexperienced pitcher at Yankee Stadium
Johnson is 7-1 during day games team record is 11-2 at home and team record is 5-2 since '97 vs Anahiem
Something to possibly look at as my opinion:
Florida: I know Hernandez pitches very well on the road and Moehler is not the greatest home pitcher either, but on of the best homer umps in Tschida is behind the plate. Home team record is 17-4 +13.4 units. The umps that stand out for home teams has been cashing the last 4/5 days at over an 80% clip. (homer ump to me is an ump that has a +5.0 units or more in favor of the home team).
Over 9.5 Arizona at Cubs
Webb's over is 7-3 on the road and Maddux is over 8-4 during the day, with the wind blowing out. Worth a very serious look.
Over 10 Texas at Toronto
With a lhp rookie Wilson going for Texas, I see a pitch count that enables Toronto to get to the Texas bullpen by the 6th. To top it off that Chacin seems to get good run support at home with the team going 7-3 and the over 6-3. But, one of the better over umps is going in Hickox with the over going 10-3. Seems to be good value at 10.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
Garcia seems to pitch very well on the road with a 9-2 mark this year. But, not very well since '97 against Baltimore with a team record only of 3-6. Seeing the line at a -110 or -120 and the way Chicago has been winning with the fact that the Orioles have choked it bad....worth a good look.
GOOD LUCK. WITH YOUR METS PICK...definately worth a shot with the dog of +220 or so than laying it with the fav at -250
Here is my reasoning against the big dogs today
NYM at Houston:
Number 1 fact that Oswalt is team record at home is 10-1
Best home record in Baseball
9-3 at home vs. lhp
NOTHING TO LEAN TOWARDS NEW YORK
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Second or Third best home record in Atlanta
Smoltz is 7-3 at home and is life time 5-2 against Pittsburgh
Home plate umpires seems to favor home teams
NOTHING TO LEAN TOWARDS PITT
Anaheim at New York
Bootcheck inexperienced pitcher at Yankee Stadium
Johnson is 7-1 during day games team record is 11-2 at home and team record is 5-2 since '97 vs Anahiem
Something to possibly look at as my opinion:
Florida: I know Hernandez pitches very well on the road and Moehler is not the greatest home pitcher either, but on of the best homer umps in Tschida is behind the plate. Home team record is 17-4 +13.4 units. The umps that stand out for home teams has been cashing the last 4/5 days at over an 80% clip. (homer ump to me is an ump that has a +5.0 units or more in favor of the home team).
Over 9.5 Arizona at Cubs
Webb's over is 7-3 on the road and Maddux is over 8-4 during the day, with the wind blowing out. Worth a very serious look.
Over 10 Texas at Toronto
With a lhp rookie Wilson going for Texas, I see a pitch count that enables Toronto to get to the Texas bullpen by the 6th. To top it off that Chacin seems to get good run support at home with the team going 7-3 and the over 6-3. But, one of the better over umps is going in Hickox with the over going 10-3. Seems to be good value at 10.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
Garcia seems to pitch very well on the road with a 9-2 mark this year. But, not very well since '97 against Baltimore with a team record only of 3-6. Seeing the line at a -110 or -120 and the way Chicago has been winning with the fact that the Orioles have choked it bad....worth a good look.
GOOD LUCK. WITH YOUR METS PICK...definately worth a shot with the dog of +220 or so than laying it with the fav at -250
arty:
