YTD: 32-15 +21.44
MLB Thu, Aug 4, 2005
MLB Hot Lines: Thursday`s best odds
Julian Dickinson
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians – Cleveland (pick)
The Tribe are hitting well. They got the best of Mike Mussina last night as +130 dogs to make it two in a row against the Yankees. But who in their right mind would take the Tribe at even money against baseball’s biggest superpower?
Well, I would.
Try to look past the pinstripes for a second. At 56-49, New York’s record is only one game better than Cleveland’s 57-51. But the Tribe is getting better pitching, especially from today’s starter Kevin Millwood, who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last four starts. They are also swinging bigger bats than the Bombers, with a .306 batting average over their last 10 games including an intimidating .328 against righties like New York’s Shawn Chacon. Chacon makes just his second start for New York tonight.
Most bettors get excited when they see the Yanks at anything less than –150, but don’t get sucked into this one. Cleveland could sweep this series.
Oakland A’s at Minnesota Twins – under eight runs
Barry Zito morphed into a whole new pitcher in July. Or more accurately, he became an old pitcher – himself.
After a shaky start to the season, Zito went 6-0 last month, with a 2.51 ERA and Player of the Month honors. Despite those numbers, only one of his starts played under the total because he was getting some outstanding run support. However, only two those games were played on the road where Oakland is hitting .249 compared with a .264 season average.
All three games in the current series in Minnesota have played under the total and Oakland has averaged less than 3 ½ runs per game. And they aren’t likely to get more than that against Kyle Lohse and his over/under ratio of 4-13 on the season.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies – under 8 ½ runs
With two pitchers who carry the the stature of Mark Prior and Brett Myers, there won`t be any easy pitches in this game. But even against average hurlers, both teams have had trouble rounding the bases recently. The Phillies, in particular, have been struggling offensively and if it weren’t for a recent series in Colorado, their average of 3.76 runs per game over their last 10 contests might be even uglier.
The Cubs have actually been worse with a 3.34 runs per game average. But the most intriguing trend? The combined over/under mark for the Phillies and Cubs over their last 10 games is 4-14-2.
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates – over 8 ½ runs
These guys are a couple of losers. It’s nothing personal – it’s just that Brian Lawrence and Mark Redman, today’s starting pitchers, both come into this matchup with 2-8 team win/loss records in their last 10 starts. Both have ERAs over 6.00 in their most recent outings and they’re both coming off horrible starts in which they gave up seven earned runs apiece.
The over hasn’t been a winning play in their starts because their run support has been microscopic, but that could change tonight. In the first two games of this series, the Padres and Pirates combined for 31 runs (both playing over, obviously). It also helped that both bullpens fell apart like a house of cards with relief pitchers giving up 11 runs.
MLB Thu, Aug 4, 2005
MLB Hot Lines: Thursday`s best odds
Julian Dickinson
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians – Cleveland (pick)
The Tribe are hitting well. They got the best of Mike Mussina last night as +130 dogs to make it two in a row against the Yankees. But who in their right mind would take the Tribe at even money against baseball’s biggest superpower?
Well, I would.
Try to look past the pinstripes for a second. At 56-49, New York’s record is only one game better than Cleveland’s 57-51. But the Tribe is getting better pitching, especially from today’s starter Kevin Millwood, who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last four starts. They are also swinging bigger bats than the Bombers, with a .306 batting average over their last 10 games including an intimidating .328 against righties like New York’s Shawn Chacon. Chacon makes just his second start for New York tonight.
Most bettors get excited when they see the Yanks at anything less than –150, but don’t get sucked into this one. Cleveland could sweep this series.
Oakland A’s at Minnesota Twins – under eight runs
Barry Zito morphed into a whole new pitcher in July. Or more accurately, he became an old pitcher – himself.
After a shaky start to the season, Zito went 6-0 last month, with a 2.51 ERA and Player of the Month honors. Despite those numbers, only one of his starts played under the total because he was getting some outstanding run support. However, only two those games were played on the road where Oakland is hitting .249 compared with a .264 season average.
All three games in the current series in Minnesota have played under the total and Oakland has averaged less than 3 ½ runs per game. And they aren’t likely to get more than that against Kyle Lohse and his over/under ratio of 4-13 on the season.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies – under 8 ½ runs
With two pitchers who carry the the stature of Mark Prior and Brett Myers, there won`t be any easy pitches in this game. But even against average hurlers, both teams have had trouble rounding the bases recently. The Phillies, in particular, have been struggling offensively and if it weren’t for a recent series in Colorado, their average of 3.76 runs per game over their last 10 contests might be even uglier.
The Cubs have actually been worse with a 3.34 runs per game average. But the most intriguing trend? The combined over/under mark for the Phillies and Cubs over their last 10 games is 4-14-2.
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates – over 8 ½ runs
These guys are a couple of losers. It’s nothing personal – it’s just that Brian Lawrence and Mark Redman, today’s starting pitchers, both come into this matchup with 2-8 team win/loss records in their last 10 starts. Both have ERAs over 6.00 in their most recent outings and they’re both coming off horrible starts in which they gave up seven earned runs apiece.
The over hasn’t been a winning play in their starts because their run support has been microscopic, but that could change tonight. In the first two games of this series, the Padres and Pirates combined for 31 runs (both playing over, obviously). It also helped that both bullpens fell apart like a house of cards with relief pitchers giving up 11 runs.
