Nfl Bad Weather Alert Myth

Well, we've all had it, the dreaded Weather change after putting down your hard earned. Even if its assumed to be in your favour the aches in the shoulders start, the bigger the bet the more the worry. After further review from upstairs, it appears its us Punters that are most put out from bad Weather.

I wont go into the stats that I wasted a couple of Hours of my highly sociable out-going life to (the Sheep seem to need more attention this time of the year) but the bottom line is, with the exception of a bit of rain, everyone acts accordingly and percentages stay the same. This reminded me of my own bets, especially the play-off game New England- Tennessee, everyone was saying, even ex-players, how the ball is like a rock and you cant kick or throw it. Right from the start, long kicks, excessive throws, drove everyone mad.

So what can be gleaned by all this rambling. Of course firstly people have to appreciate, the Books dont know anything about the Weather, thats why we waste our time on it, and even press up our perceived advantage.
The top priority should be that Weather shouldnt effect your overall reasoning on a game, similar to the French saying, "the more things change, the more they stay the same". It could in fact, be a prime time for the "Public are always wrong " gang to cash in, betting overs. The other myth is the running game is better in Rain, if so why is the average run down half a yard

There is no doubting that the Weather can play a big part in Scalping, Arbing and getting the right price, but outside of that, sleep easy, what will happen will happen, come rain or come shine.

PS: All responses are appreciated except the, "But the balls more slippery in rain, so there's more fumbles" Post.

As soon as I turned on the pregame of the Indy-Pats playoff game last year and saw that were was a covering of snow on the field and more light snow was expected, I plunked down a few pennies on the Pats. In some instances, weather can play factor. At other times, it is overrated.

Poker King Jim said:

As soon as I turned on the pregame of the Indy-Pats playoff game last year and saw that were was a covering of snow on the field and more light snow was expected, I plunked down a few pennies on the Pats. In some instances, weather can play factor. At other times, it is overrated.

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My argument precisely, but your play was at a line that had taken consideration of the weather. The Books had adjusted for dopes like you (no offence) and on here , all the sharps were telling their fruits of wisdom, when its raining, when its snowing, when its lightening, when I have two shits the same day, all the while, the books were happily sleeping and dreaming where to go for their Holidays.

I've often been amused at the warm weather team / cold weather team scenario. So much is made about, say, a Miami playing at New England in January. However, you never hear about the difficulties of a cold weather team suddenly having to play in hot, humid conditions.

I've had numerous college and pro coaches over the years tell me that it is MUCH MORE difficult for a cold-weather team to adapt to hot, humid weather than vise-versa.

While I may be comparing apples to oranges in a way, I believe this to be true. I'm an avid runner (6ish miles per day), and I have never had issues with adapting to a sudden cold spell - a common experience in Ohio. On the other hand, going out on a muggy, 90 degree day after adapting to cool conditions can be a very brutal experience.

In any regard, I have to agree with the original post. I rarely let weather conditions factor into my wagering. Perhaps over/unders moreso than the game itself.

BernieKozar said:

I've often been amused at the warm weather team / cold weather team scenario. So much is made about, say, a Miami playing at New England in January. However, you never hear about the difficulties of a cold weather team suddenly having to play in hot, humid conditions.

I've had numerous college and pro coaches over the years tell me that it is MUCH MORE difficult for a cold-weather team to adapt to hot, humid weather than vise-versa.

While I may be comparing apples to oranges in a way, I believe this to be true. I'm an avid runner (6ish miles per day), and I have never had issues with adapting to a sudden cold spell - a common experience in Ohio. On the other hand, going out on a muggy, 90 degree day after adapting to cool conditions can be a very brutal experience.

In any regard, I have to agree with the original post. I rarely let weather conditions factor into my wagering. Perhaps over/unders moreso than the game itself.

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What you say is true. However, what people seem to be missing is, the books ALSO KNOW THE WEATHER. Yet so-called sharps will talk about The Bucs zero this, zero that, as if the books are striaght- jacket cases. Just trying to make people aware of the non-sense.

heavy winds make a huge difference when it comes to totals...but by gametime it has been factored in so you have to move fast

Only thing that makes a difference is HEAVY WIND and SUB-ZERO temps. Both affect the passing game in a major way.

Moderate rain does lead to more turnovers, but that can help the over as much as the under, depending on what part of field the fumble occurs on. No way to predict that. Also, it is true footing is worse for the cutting runner, but that also effects the cutting defender, scrambling to get into position. Again, neutral, works bad and good both ways. Moderate rain is a non-factor for the total, IMO.

Heavy wind (20+ MPH) is a no-brainer under play. It WILL move the ball off target on long passing plays, and WILL negatively affect FG kicking accuracy.

Sub-zero temps make the ball as hard as a rock, making it harder to throw and catch the ball. Also, runners/receivers get banged up pretty fast, as everytime they are tackled, they are literally falling on a frozen rock (the pigskin).

I think the biggest myth is HEAVY SNOW helps the under. From personal observation, the opposite is true. I have seem most of the heavy snow games go OVER as long as no heavy wind around. Why? It seems the WR's have a huge advantage because they know what routes they are going to run, while the dbs have to cut on the snow to catch up. The WR's are open all day long, with the CB's constantly falling down.

PPeter,

Thanks for your contribution, it all adds to the reason the thread was done. My findings, which quiet frankly, I was going in expecting to find an edge on the books, appear to say, regardless of the elements, both coaches and players are more than aware of the situations and act accordingly. I cant think of one advantage one team would have over another team, they didnt have previously.

As PPeter pointed out, whats good for the goose is good for the gander, a pass happy team might not have the weather but then they are not going to take the chances, a running team wont have the threat of the pass, etc,etc. As my research has found, nothing changes game wise, only book wise, so maybe ATS weather is not a factor.

ppeter said:

I think the biggest myth is HEAVY SNOW helps the under. From personal observation, the opposite is true. I have seem most of the heavy snow games go OVER as long as no heavy wind around. Why? It seems the WR's have a huge advantage because they know what routes they are going to run, while the dbs have to cut on the snow to catch up. The WR's are open all day long, with the CB's constantly falling down.

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The Bengals Browns game last year is a prime example of snow helping the over. There was a windy snowstorm most of the game and both teams couldn't stop scoring. The final score was 48-41.

IS

All you need to know about the over value of Cold weather was last years game when Jacksonville won AT Green Bay in like 10 degree weather in December...no way in hell i saw that coming. Same day Houston won at Chicago in similar freezing weather.

winbet said:

My argument precisely, but your play was at a line that had taken consideration of the weather. The Books had adjusted for dopes like you (no offence) and on here , all the sharps were telling their fruits of wisdom, when its raining, when its snowing, when its lightening, when I have two shits the same day, all the while, the books were happily sleeping and dreaming where to go for their Holidays.

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They did not factor the weather into the line enough, IMO. A wet sloppy grass field meant the difference of the ball game. I'd say it was worth at least 4 points compared to a warm dry september field. And again, the line ends up at where the public bets it to. So the public underestimated the weather in this instance rather than the bookmaker. The weather was forecasted to be decent (no precip) until the day before the game. There was no big line move in the direction of the Pats when the weather turned out to be bad. That game played on a dry field right around a pick. On a wet field, Pats -4.

As far as snow on the field helping the passing game, I agree. The biggest advantage goes to offensive lineman as poor traction for pass rush allows o-line to easily direct defender wherever they want. Just look and see how much time the QB has to throw in these conditions--the extra 2, 3, 4 seconds makes it impossible for a db to hang.