trap brewing in Yankee game?

WOW
i was suprised to see consensus at wagerline showing 2-1 in favor of the White Sox +8. Looks like everone loves the value on the Sox. This was my first impulse also when i saw that line. Sox been playing better on road, El Duque has played Yankee stadium a zillion times, Yanks been losing their Unit/Mussina starts & winning their Small/Leiter/Chacon starts. Go figure that one.
Then the consensus made me re-think. Yanks know El Duque. They coached him, they've watched him, they know him. Just like John Gruden knew the Raiders in the 03 Superbowl, Yanks know El Duque's weaknesses & tendancies. Then i think of the big line. What a huge line to hoist in favor of the Yanks. This should be closer to even money right? The Man thinks the Yanks got 66% of winning on a -9 line.
If you posit that the experts give the Yanks a 2/3 shot of winning, & the squares think the Sox will win by a 2-1 margin, it's clear the Yanks will win the game Monday night.
That's my play for Monday...Yanks -9.
Good luck!
JDub

Pondering further on this play,
It's hard to pull the trigger on the Yanks -9 when they're facing the team with the best record in baseball. Mussina has not been playing his A-game. Those are good reasons to take the Sox, especially with that value.
Maybe the play instead is over 10. Think of these 2 starters a few years back. This line would be 7, 8 at most. Today it's ten. Man sees upside in the score today. 11 would have no confidence on the pitchers, but 10 isn't far from saying the same thing.
It's hard to pick a side with the Yanks lately. Their bats & arms have been hard to predict day to day. Forget taking a side.
I'm taking over 10 to win today.
Good luck!
-JDub :finger: