WOW
i was suprised to see consensus at wagerline showing 2-1 in favor of the White Sox +8. Looks like everone loves the value on the Sox. This was my first impulse also when i saw that line. Sox been playing better on road, El Duque has played Yankee stadium a zillion times, Yanks been losing their Unit/Mussina starts & winning their Small/Leiter/Chacon starts. Go figure that one.
Then the consensus made me re-think. Yanks know El Duque. They coached him, they've watched him, they know him. Just like John Gruden knew the Raiders in the 03 Superbowl, Yanks know El Duque's weaknesses & tendancies. Then i think of the big line. What a huge line to hoist in favor of the Yanks. This should be closer to even money right? The Man thinks the Yanks got 66% of winning on a -9 line.
If you posit that the experts give the Yanks a 2/3 shot of winning, & the squares think the Sox will win by a 2-1 margin, it's clear the Yanks will win the game Monday night.
That's my play for Monday...Yanks -9.
Good luck!
JDub
i was suprised to see consensus at wagerline showing 2-1 in favor of the White Sox +8. Looks like everone loves the value on the Sox. This was my first impulse also when i saw that line. Sox been playing better on road, El Duque has played Yankee stadium a zillion times, Yanks been losing their Unit/Mussina starts & winning their Small/Leiter/Chacon starts. Go figure that one.
Then the consensus made me re-think. Yanks know El Duque. They coached him, they've watched him, they know him. Just like John Gruden knew the Raiders in the 03 Superbowl, Yanks know El Duque's weaknesses & tendancies. Then i think of the big line. What a huge line to hoist in favor of the Yanks. This should be closer to even money right? The Man thinks the Yanks got 66% of winning on a -9 line.
If you posit that the experts give the Yanks a 2/3 shot of winning, & the squares think the Sox will win by a 2-1 margin, it's clear the Yanks will win the game Monday night.
That's my play for Monday...Yanks -9.
Good luck!
JDub