Sharp ‘baffled’ why Nats are favored Tuesday --WAS @ HOU 8-9-05

MLB Mon, Aug 8, 2005
Sharp ‘baffled’ why Nats are favored Tuesday
Josh Hansen

They’re not playing the Atlanta Braves. Nor are the Yankees in town. But somehow, some way, the Houston Astros, one of the league’s top home teams, opened as a +105 underdog for today’s game against the dried up Washington Nationals.

“Basically, it`s all about the pitching in this case,” Bodog.com linesmaker Todd Allen said. “[John] Patterson is 5-3 with an ERA of 2.42 and can be dominant while [Ezequiel] Astacio is 2-4 with a 6.33 ERA. This is Astacio`s first year and taking it on the chin.”

Still, backing the Astros at home has been a gold mine for bettors and an easy target for sharps this season. Houston has suffered just 15 losses at Minute Maid Park, tying them with the Atlanta Braves as baseball’s top home team.

That is, until you look at the 17.04 units Houston has stuffed into the mouths of their home supporters. The majority of the credit goes to an impressive July tear Houston went on in July, which included a 12-2 home record.

Sure they’ve settled down since the calendar rolled to August, posting a 3-3 record. But all six of those games were on the road where the Astros own one of baseball’s worst records.

“Sometimes a line just jumps out at you and completely baffles you,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who admits he was caught off guard by the price.

“But the books know more than we do, so that’s why we don’t win all the time.”

The Washington Nationals know all about that. Once the league’s hottest teams, Washington has cooled off like an Antarctic breeze. With just six wins since the All-Star break and the league`s worst offense, Washington has spiraled into third place in the National League East – a division they owned for the majority of the season.

“Houston is on a bit of a winning streak so I can see the line moving a little in their favor,” added Allen. “And Washington is on a losing streak at the moment. However I do not expect any big line moves.”

Fargo doesn`t mind.

“Absolutely, these are two teams heading in opposite directions."

The total opened at eight runs.

Astros now find Minute Maid to order
By JOSE DE JESUS ORTIZ
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle

The Astros are so much more successful at Minute Maid Park than on the road this year that some folks might wonder if they're stealing the opposing pitchers' signs at home.

If you didn't know any better, conspiracy theorists might think the Astros had figured out a way to steal the pitchers' signs and deliver them to the hitters.

How exactly do you explain the National League wild-card leaders having a 36-15 record at home and a 24-36 record on the road?

How can you explain a team batting .277 with 61 homers, 219 RBIs and 230 runs over 51 games at home and batting .240 with 46 homers, 232 RBIs, and 246 runs over 60 road games?

At least one National League rival already floated the theory to its pitchers this season, so it makes sense to ask. Third-base coach Doug Mansolino has heard the rumblings.

"No comment," he said, offering a wry smirk.

Nonetheless, Morgan Ensberg appreciated the theory.

"I think it's awesome that they think that," said Ensberg, who is hitting .306 with 14 home runs and 35 RBIs at home and .276 with 15 home runs and 47 RBIs on the road. "I'd rather have a pitcher paranoid. But I think it's a combination of things.

"We're familiar with Minute Maid Park. We bat second at home and we know our routines. I mean, I'm reaching here."

After a trip in which they went 3-3 through Arizona and San Francisco, dropping two of three against the NL West's fourth-place Giants, the Astros begin their longest homestand of the season tonight.


Crucial stretch

Over 13 games, the Astros will play three wild-card contenders — the Nationals, Cubs and Brewers. They'll start the stand with consecutive three-game series against the Nationals, Pirates and Cubs before concluding with a four-game series against the surging Brewers.

There are many theories as to why teams play better at home. The simplest and most accurate is that a team at home always has the final at-bat. The Astros, who have 30 games remaining at Minute Maid Park and 21 on the road, also cite fan support.

"I wish I knew why we were so much better at home," closer Brad Lidge said. "I know at least for me the fans play a big part in it."

For the record, Lidge is 0-1 with a 2.41 ERA and has converted nine of 10 save opportunities on the road. He is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA and has converted 18 of 20 save opportunities at home. Opposing hitters are batting .220 against him at Minute Maid Park and .232 on the road.

Meanwhile, with Ensberg and Lance Berkman fortifying the middle of the order, the Astros' offense depends heavily on Willy Taveras and Craig Biggio. At home, Taveras and Biggio are doing an amazing job of setting the table.


Sizzling in Houston
Biggio, a professional hitter with a tremendous ability to pull the ball toward Minute Maid Park's short left-field porcha at the Crawford Boxes, is hitting .307 with 16 home runs, 40 RBIs and 44 runs over 51 games at home. Taveras is hitting .352 with a .391 on-base percentage, 36 runs, two home runs and 10 RBIs over 50 games at home.

The numbers are dra- matically lower on the road. Taveras is hitting .239 with a .265 on-base percentage and 19 runs over 57 games on the road. Biggio is hitting .233 with one home run, seven RBIs and 22 runs over 57 road games.

But if Minute Maid Park is such a hitter's paradise, why has All-Star righthander Roy Oswalt, one of the premier pitchers in baseball, had so much more success at home than on the road? Oswalt (14-9, 2.47 ERA) is 10-1 with a 2.03 ERA at Minute Maid Park, yet 4-8 with an impressive 2.93 ERA on the road. Considering his ERA on the road, Oswalt's huge split in winning percentages on the road and home are perfect examples of the benefits of decent offensive support at home and lousy offensive support on the road.

Oswalt has a theory as to why he can maintain such an impressive ERA at a hitter-friendly ballpark.

"If you get some early runs to work with and if you get a two- or three-run lead, you feel more comfortable," Oswalt said. "For sure, oh yeah, the mental load is less."

<TABLE cellPadding=5 width=150 align=left bgColor=#cccccc border=0 hspace="5" vspace="5"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#666699></TD></TR><TR><TD>[size=-2]The Astros aren't alone in playing much better at home than on the road. Seven NL teams have sizable differences in their home/road performances (games above and below .500):
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>Team </TD><TD>Home </TD><TD>Road </TD><TD>Diff. </TD></TR><TR><TD>Astros </TD><TD>+21 </TD><TD>-12 </TD><TD>33 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Rockies </TD><TD>+2 </TD><TD>-28 </TD><TD>30 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Braves </TD><TD>+20 </TD><TD>-4 </TD><TD>24 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Mets </TD><TD>+13 </TD><TD>-10 </TD><TD>23 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Reds </TD><TD>+4 </TD><TD>-16 </TD><TD>20 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Nationals </TD><TD>+12 </TD><TD>-7 </TD><TD>19 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Phillies </TD><TD>+11 </TD><TD>-7 </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[/size]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>