PPeter's PreSeason Picks Week 1

ppeter · Aug 10, 2005

OK, some guys have been asking if I am going to post my plays, so here is what I have been playing:

Thurs, 8/11

SD pk, 9 units. I know the game is up to -3 now, but I would still lay it, but at 5 units. I will use -3, 5 units as my official play.
GB is going to play not to get injured, as Favre rarely needs PS work, and their defense is perilously thin, esp in the backfield. Expect a very conservative effort from the Pack here. Pack backup qbs very questionable in terms of talent. As for SD, Phillip Rivers will get to play 2 qtrs to show why he was worth the overall #1 pick in the draft. I expect Drew Brees to play well, as he has to hold off Rivers. 3rd stringer Cleo Lemon is no slouch either, as he has played very well is past PS games. I look for overall better "pitching" from SD.

Fri, 8/12

Cincy +3 5 units, Cincy pk 5 unit. I know, I know, the line is Cincy -3 now. For official purposes, I will use Cincy -3, 5 units. Cincy is hyped for this game, a buddy there tells me the game is a sellout. Cincy is much deeper than in years past, and backup Kitna could start on many teams. Meanwhile, NE is supposedly having backup qb problems with Rohan Davey and Doug Flutie not playing well. Flutie really should be retired.

So, to recap:

SD -3 5 units
Cincy -3 5 units

I typically play 3-15 unit range. My goal for this PS is 100 units.

ppeter · Aug 10, 2005

adding:

Fri 8/12

Chi +3 5 units. I missed the line move, but it appears well deserved. The Bears offense showed signs of life, as all 3 qbs moved the ball well. There appears to be decent competition between Grossman and Huchinson for the starting job, so that should fuel A+ efforts from the qb position. Rams and Martz have generally been known to take it easy in the PS, and his offense doesnt show much. Chi is playing game 2, and it is well known teams playing game 2 vs those playing game 1 has been a solid system over the years.

Sat 8/13

Mia +3.5 5 units. Same system as above. Plus Dolphins looked surprisingly competitive in PS. Saban should be going for his first win in this regional rivalry.

Houst pk 15 UNIT PLAY OF THE WEEK. I missed the line move when Houst was +2, but this was likely a "reverse" by a syndicate to pick up points on a solid play. Dom Capers has stated he "wants lots of sacks" in the PS, which generally violates a gentlemans agreement in the NFL not to go all out on D in the PS. Dom obviously wants to "set a tone" for the regular season. Denver plays right into this gameplan, as Jake Plummer is injured and will see little, if any action (publically Shannahan is saying just 10 plays). They are grooming inexperienced former CSU star Bradlee Van Pelt to get most of the snaps in this game. While I love Brad for his winning ways in college, I honestly do not think he has an NFL arm. He should be a TE in the NFL.

Houst will be psyched for this game as expectations are high for this season. I expect a sellout. Dom has traditionally "cared" about winning the PS. I really doubt Houst will lose this game. Plus, Houst has the vastly superior qb rotation IMO as Tony Banks has won for Houst in the PS and Ragone is no slouch. Danny Kannell (Denver #3) never had the skill to play in the NFL, Imo.

Houst/Denv under 37 3 units. Houst has stated they will run the ball a lot and employ ball control. They will also be blitzing on D. I would rate this a higher play, but the PS games have generally been going over lately given the shoddy D in the 4th qtrs.

ppeter · Aug 10, 2005

Recapping

SD -3 5 units
Cincy -2 5 units (typo earlier, said -3 but line was never that high, lots of 2's out there)
Chi +3 5 units
Mia +3.5 5 units
Houst pk 15 units
Houst under 37 3 units

More to follow

Dante · Aug 10, 2005

Best of Luck Ppeter...will be following you in vegas ...thanks

ppeter · Aug 11, 2005

An absolutely BRUTAL loss, as SD was robbed of easy FG attempt before the half because of ref time clock mistake, Nate Keading missed TWO fgs for SD, SD had a TD taken away by replay, Brees turned it over deep in GB territory in first drive of series, GB makes a 53 YARD FG to win the game, Favre played 1/3 game longer than expected, I could go on and on about how wrong this game result was.

running result

0-1 -5.5 units

ppeter · Aug 12, 2005

Adding

Det + 3 -120 8 units
Det +1 (1st half) 3 units

Pennington is going to sit. Fielder/Bollinger should get trumped by Harrington/Garcia/Orlovsky. Mooch on much hotter seat than Edwards. Mooch has cared more about winning PS.

NO -2 5 units

Word out of camp is all of NO's qbs have been playing very well. Haslett on hot seat, and so far, coaches on hot seats have been pulling out all the stops this PS.

recapping

SD -3 5 units (lost)
Cincy -2 5 units
Chi +3 5 units
Mia +3.5 5 units
Houst pk 15 units
Houst under 37 3 units
Det +3 -120 8 units
Det +1 (half) 3 units
NO -2 5 units

AFLGuru · Aug 12, 2005

Houston is sold out for tomorrow's game against Denver from what I've heard. The comment that Capers made when picking up Buchanon from the Raiders was that it was time to "unleash hell" with two young shutdown corners. This means lots and lots of chances for Babin, Peek, Greenwood, and Wong to pick up lots of sacks this season, something the Texans' D-Line has never produced in their short history. Don't be surprised to see Houston call blitzes on over half of the plays on defense this week, and even more as the season goes on ("Blitzburgh" Steelers-esque)

gobucks · Aug 12, 2005

OK Boys- I am on board as well. I think if Carr continues to develop this Texan team could make some noise in an up and coming division.

AFLGuru · Aug 12, 2005

Houston's still a year, a left tackle, and a d-tackle away, but as a Texans fan, I'm very excited to see the strides this team has made this season, especially with the ridiculous speed in the secondary with Dunta and Buchanon.

TescoVee · Aug 12, 2005

Buchanon as a shut down corner could be the funniest statement I have ever heard. Hopefully he can return some punts and make himself useful.

ppeter · Aug 12, 2005

Adding:

Minn under 42 3 units

Tenn over 36 3 units

recapping

SD -3 5 units (lost)
Cincy -2 5 units
Chi +3 5 units
Mia +3.5 5 units
Houst pk 15 units
Houst under 37 3 units
Det +3 -120 8 units
Det +1 (half) 3 units
NO -2 5 units
Minn under 42 3 units
Tenn ov 36 3 units

olddog · Aug 12, 2005

Tuff Beat

You (and I and others) shouldn't have lost w/ SD. SD had 3 missed fgs! And Favre was ony supposed to play one or two series.

Good luck on th rest of your picks.

ppeter · Aug 12, 2005

Thanks OD, GL to you too :103631605

bblight · Aug 12, 2005

Hey ppete - how's it going?

I agree with the Cincy pick - last year they played the Pats like a regular season game - and, if memory serves, shut out the Pats.

I'm going small on this for two points:

The Pats are so deep and there are a lot of excellent players on the cusp. Expect many of them to play like it's the end of the world (and it could be).

I think the new USC QB and Rohan Davey will get the lions share of qb playing time - Rohan is this side of being unempoyed.

The Cincy Coach wants a win and Bellicek doesn't care about the W and just wants to evaluate a host of good players - it'll be interesting, but the home team should carry this game.

winkyduck · Aug 12, 2005

ppeter said:
adding:

Houst pk 15 UNIT PLAY OF THE WEEK

we are on opposite sides here. i'll take shanahan in G1 of the pre-season all the time and cash most of the time. capers can say all he wants - but he is n't playing!

i'll hope this goes to Denver +2 and take more on the M/L

ppeter · Aug 12, 2005

I got slaughtered.

I had a chance to get a push with the Bungholes (I had +3) but they stalled on the NE goal line to finish the game.

I had a chance to win the Det game, but they stalled on the NYJ goal line to finish the game.

I had a chance to win the Minny under 42, but KC converts a miracle 4th down late in the game, and goes on to score a "meanighless" TD with seconds remaining in the 4th qtr to put it over by a point.

See a trend? If I need a break, I am not getting it.

ppeter · Aug 12, 2005

SD -3 5 units (lost)
Cincy -2 5 units (lost)
Chi +3 5 units (lost)
Mia +3.5 5 units
Houst pk 15 units
Houst under 37 3 units
Det +3 -120 8 units (lost)
Det +1 (half) 3 units (lost)
NO -2 5 units (lost)
Minn under 42 3 units (lost)
Tenn ov 36 3 units (won)

running total:
1-7 -35.2 units

My goal is now to finish ahead in PS. My apologies to all who followed.

I now need Houst BAD. Very, very bad.

ppeter · Aug 13, 2005

winkyduck said:
we are on opposite sides here. i'll take shanahan in G1 of the pre-season all the time and cash most of the time. capers can say all he wants - but he is n't playing!

i'll hope this goes to Denver +2 and take more on the M/L

Well, at the rate I am going, you might get it. I don't think Shanny will get this one, though. He will get the next game.

ppeter · Aug 13, 2005

Adding:

Oak -2.5 -130 5 units

SF might not be ready for this game. New coordinators on both sides of the ball. Talented but inexperienced Alex Smith gets the start. Oak is a veteran ballclub who will want to win this regional rivalry.

SD -3 5 units (lost)
Cincy -2 5 units (lost)
Chi +3 5 units (lost)
Det +3 -120 8 units (lost)
Det +1 (half) 3 units (lost)
NO -2 5 units (lost)
Minn under 42 3 units (lost)
Tenn ov 36 3 units (won)
Mia +3.5 5 units
Houst pk 15 units
Houst under 37 3 units
Oak -2.5 -130 5 units

running total:
1-7 -35.2 units

ppeter · Aug 13, 2005

Adding:

Carol -3.5 and over 35.5 2-team parlay. 3 units to win 8 units.
These two plays are inter-related as I think Carol is primed to move the ball on Wash all night long. Weinke is a very experinenced backup and Carol has a stable of breakaway backs who should wear Wash's D out. Gibbs wants to work on the offense. I see a final around 27-13, Carol.