Choptalks Sunday Baseball +122 UNITS YTD (Monster Card)

CHOPTALK · Aug 13, 2005

236-193 +$12201.00 +122 UNITS YTD

Went 1-0 +3.0 units on Saturday. Good enough to reach a new season high. This may be the biggest card of the YTD today. Yesterday I had only 1 play. Today I have 6 plays. Its funny how these things work. I cant wait till these games start. This is one of my top 5 cards of the year overall IMO. But that dont mean a damm thing till the games are played. Lets see how this all turns out.

(3)Mets -149 $447 for $300 LISTED PINNACLE ALL GAMES PM/BP
(3)Texas +195 $300 for $585 JB/SC
(3)White SOX +140 $300 for $420 OH/MC
(2)Padres +108 $200 for $216 CHP/RT
(2)Brewers -120 $240 for $200 DD/BC
(2)Mariners +128 $200 for $256 GM/JL

Please be carefull with this big card. Proper MM!!!! Good luck!!!! This is going to be fun.

CHOPTALK · Aug 13, 2005

237-193 +$12201.00 +122 UNITS YTD

This is the correct win loss record. I shorted myself a win.
Had the units right. But its 237 not 236. Not that it matters. The units are the important part.

If people follow my plays. Let me make a suggestion. If you have a small bankroll, dont lay more than you should. This is my biggest card of the season. Dont go over 5% of your bankroll for the entire card. If your bankroll is $2000. Spread all 6 plays to equal no more than $100 bucks. This is JMO. This is my suggestion everyday. It will save your ass over the long run.Good luck.

ClubmanCoop · Aug 13, 2005

5% of bankroll....done lol

Good advice though SMM is a must

GL & THX Chop

tmoneya6 · Aug 13, 2005

Do you ever chase or go big on plays?

Honestly?

Tmon

JimL04 · Aug 13, 2005

thanks for the card chop.

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Aug 13, 2005

hey chop, i think this would be a great time for your money management speach, this is a lot of money and ppl could be totally wiped out if they dont play these to their limits, should this day not turn out as you plan....i have noticed there are alot of new ppl on therx lately and you havent given the whole speach in a while....gl tomorrow chop.

pizzap · Aug 14, 2005

GL tomorrow! :103631605

ZZZSpeedster · Aug 14, 2005

Red Sox at home
Day game
Matt Clement

yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes taking the white sox
good luck! but I hope you're wrong! <G>

jdub6810 · Aug 14, 2005

Uh Oh, Chop is FADING the Yanks, & he always picks the side right on the Yankee games.

Big brass cohones you have, 'cause i can't see a reason Texas will win on the fundamentals. But i'm pulling for you Chop. I'd rather the Yanks lose & quit teasing the yankee faithful that they have a shot to make the playoffs. The sooner Steinbrenner drops dead, the better for the Spanks.

Good luck! :suomi:

ComptrBob · Aug 14, 2005

choptalk said:
If people follow my plays. Let me make a suggestion. If you have a small bankroll, dont lay more than you should. This is my biggest card of the season. Dont go over 5% of your bankroll for the entire card. If your bankroll is $2000. Spread all 6 plays to equal no more than $100 bucks. This is JMO. This is my suggestion everyday. It will save your ass over the long run.Good luck.

Generally, limiting your bets to a small % of bankroll is a essential thing to do, but your suggestion here is certainly not near-optimal mathematically and when applied to your own dollar amounts would lead to rather poor results.

Example: Lets say Sunday's bets (that follow your own rule) are right at your max of 5% of bankroll. Your bets total $1687, your "bankroll" is then $33740. If not at the max 5%, then your bankroll is even bigger than that. So on Saturday, your 3 unit bet of $315 corresponds to less than 1% of bankroll and your 1 unit, $100 play on St Louis several days ago was for 0.3% of bankroll.

Given your overall winning %, you've bet 430 games at maybe 2.3 units per bet or roughly 1000 units, up 122 units. I won't get into the mathematically optimal bet strategy called the Kelly criteria, but it indicates that you should be betting more than 1% of bankroll on your best 3 unit bet. Your best bet probably should be more like 2% or 2.5% of bankroll.

Finally, unless you claim that the games on any one day are correlated (results related to each other), limiting your bets on a daily basis makes no mathematical sense. Each individual bet should be sized according to your advantage.

JMHO, but maybe its something to consider.

SqueezePlay · Aug 14, 2005

Sound Money Management. This is something that routinely kills me. My opinion is that one should establish a betting range like $100-$300, or $25-$75 and stay in that range religiously. Where I get beat down is when I get this incredibly dumb belief that I have a killshot on an easy winner. I go crazy and almost always lose anything I play out of my range. I can get a -270 team beat, no problem at all. So as someone that knows better and still is dealing with it, SMM is indeed the key to success.

As for the Yanks, Chacon continues to be this season's hard luck story. He pitches great in Colorado and gets one stinking win and the world's worst run support. He goes out there for the Yankees and leaves even or with the lead or down 1-0 after a stellar effort and gets no decision or a loss when the NYY bullpen stinks up the place or the Yankee bats look like toothpicks. My heart is with Chacon, but I wouldn't touch this game. NYY -220 on a guy that has one win all season? I can see NYY finding a way to lose AGAIN. It's about VALUE, after all. Good Luck, Chop!!!

CHOPTALK · Aug 14, 2005

tmoneya6 said:
Do you ever chase or go big on plays?

Honestly?

Tmon

No matter who you are, we all have chased in the past. I have done it in this thread before. The key is to keep those things to a min. We are all human.

CHOPTALK · Aug 14, 2005

ComptrBob said:
Generally, limiting your bets to a small % of bankroll is a essential thing to do, but your suggestion here is certainly not near-optimal mathematically and when applied to your own dollar amounts would lead to rather poor results.

Example: Lets say Sunday's bets (that follow your own rule) are right at your max of 5% of bankroll. Your bets total $1687, your "bankroll" is then $33740. If not at the max 5%, then your bankroll is even bigger than that. So on Saturday, your 3 unit bet of $315 corresponds to less than 1% of bankroll and your 1 unit, $100 play on St Louis several days ago was for 0.3% of bankroll.

Given your overall winning %, you've bet 430 games at maybe 2.3 units per bet or roughly 1000 units, up 122 units. I won't get into the mathematically optimal bet strategy called the Kelly criteria, but it indicates that you should be betting more than 1% of bankroll on your best 3 unit bet. Your best bet probably should be more like 2% or 2.5% of bankroll.

Finally, unless you claim that the games on any one day are correlated (results related to each other), limiting your bets on a daily basis makes no mathematical sense. Each individual bet should be sized according to your advantage.

JMHO, but maybe its something to consider.

I understand what you are saying to a point ComputerBob, and you make some good points. But if I risked 2.5% of my bankroll on every 3unit play it would drive me nuts. I have 3 3 unit plays today. That would be 7.5% of my bankroll just on those 3 plays. This is not even counting my 3 2 unit plays. Lets just say I put 1% each on those. Now you are talking about 10% of my entire bankroll on 1 day. That is too rich for my blood. I would not even be able to watch the games in peace. I would be a nervous is hell doing it that way.

I guess the bottem line of what im trying to say is to use your good judgement with these plays. If you manage your money wrong you could ruin weeks of great capping with 1 bad day. Good luck everyone.

AFLGuru · Aug 14, 2005

Chop-

In truth, Bob is right... In theory, when a bettor suggests to be a "unit" on a game, a "unit" is equal to a percentage of his betting bankroll. Whether you have chosen to recalcuate that unit thanks to success during the season is up to you. But in theory as you present it, you started off with $10K in your bankroll, betting a $100 unit (in that $100 was 1% of your total account). If this were to hold true and you and all followers were to stay religious to this throughout the course of the season (assuming everyone gets the same numbers, which is impossible in baseball, but you see my point), they would actually have increased their bankroll by 122 units, or $12,200ish dollars. That's the general concept behind a unit. Now if your unit is, for example, 0.5% of your bankroll, that's quite alright as well. It doesn't need to be stated by you and that's your own business (what your "starting bankroll" is).

But in this instance today, you're theoretically betting 7.6% of your approximate bankroll, IF you haven't changed your unit size throughout the season, started with the theoretical 10K bankroll for 1 unit = $100, and have followed your plays religiously...

I, personally don't believe in changing one's unit size once you establish it throughout the course of the season unless things are going incredibly bad (in which case you should probably just stop completely). But there are others who are probably better learned that I am in this area that suggest to recalculate your unit after you increase your bankroll "x"%. But to suggest to bet no more than 5% of your bankroll when you've got one of your "top 5" cards of the year is a wee conservative, especially when theory suggests that you're actually betting 15 units worth of plays and 7.6% of your own theoretical bankroll.

Yes, as proven by Bucs on Saturday, things can go horrifically wrong in a day. I'm not saying that you should drop 100% of your account on these games, but by the way that you are presenting it, a 3 unit play is a 3 unit play is a 3 unit play if that makes sense, and these 6 games should take up nearly 17% of your account if you're starting off today. I know that 17% of the account seems risky, but even 1-5 gets back at worst 2 and change of those % points.

And yes, Jeff Francoeur is a god amongst men and the absolute savior for the Braves outfield this year. Now if the dude can only learn to take a walk every now and again it'd be great. Best of luck today.

--AFLGuru:toast:

CHOPTALK · Aug 14, 2005

AFL Guru and ComputerBob both make good points. I guess the bottem line is for you the individual to figure out whats smart for you. I know what my comfort zone is when it comes to baseball. Its on the very conservative side. If some of you are more inclined to take risk, that is totally up to you. My personal rule is to never risk over 5% in one day. I think everyone who has ever bet knows when you are betting too much money. All im saying is dont cross that line.
Good luck.

mrpotter1 · Aug 14, 2005

Good luck with the uuuuge card today!! :dancefool

wilber · Aug 14, 2005

Nyy

I hate the Yanks and you are the guru but I just couldnt take the Rangers over the Yankees today. Texas has lost 6 in a row - they have no bull pen.
Yankees have won 3 in a row, 7-3 over last 10 games. Chacon has pitched well lately, Benoit has not.
There must be something you like.

acosta · Aug 14, 2005

It's easy to decide how much to bet if you flat bet each game. You decide what % of your bankroll to bet based on the risk of ruin you are willing to accept. (Well maybe not so easy in sports as it's hard to quantify your edge.) What you can do when you follow someone like Choptalk who advises to bet a different amount is adjust his recommndations to a more conservative approach. Let's say a capper posts his picks a 1-3 units. You can bet your 1 unit on his 2 unit plays, 1/2 unit on his 1 units and 1.5 unit on his 3's. If the capper posts in the 1-5 range, you can bet 1/3 of your unit starting at his 1's topping off at 1.67 units, or bet .4/unit for each of his steps. For me, betting 2x my basic unit is a very rare event.

stef · Aug 14, 2005

The only thing I could see likeable about TX. today is the price. Otherwise the wheels are coming off the Rangers. But Chop does know Yank baseball so its eye opening. The only one I might touch is Mets, just cannot touch the others. Some struggling teams there. Probally will be kicking myself in the ass later but thats gambling. Best of luck

winkyduck · Aug 14, 2005

hope you are right on CWS, Brewskies and Padres for i am on them, too and like them a lot - especially the last 2

Choptalks Sunday Baseball +122 UNITS YTD (Monster Card)

Member

Member

Member

New member

New member

New member

Member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Member

Member

You play... to win... the game

Member

Da Bears!!!!!!!

Pub

New member

New member

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL

Forum statistics

Share this page