SU win percentage and ATS win percentage

When dealing with lower point spreads where there is real upset potential, under 14 in football, is it possible to beat the spread over a large number of bets without the SU results being altered?

In other words, a favorite of 10 points should win the game about 77% of the time. If you look at all those games, the dog will cover 50% of the time, the favorite will cover the spread 50% of the time.

If you handicap successfully, such that you can bet the favorite to cover the spread 60% of the time, would you always see a corresponding decrease in upsets? For example, normal results are 77% SU and 50% ATS. But after handicapping and deciding on the favorite, results are higher for both (ie 85% SU and 60% ATS). And likewise, when you handicap and decide to take the points, over a large number of bets, would you see something like dogs (60% ATS) and 35% SU?

Or is it possible that the spread can be beaten successfully (60% ATS with favorites) yet the upset rate remains the same (77%)?

What I'm trying to figure out is, if you can beat the spread by handicapping the game, does that automatically mean that you can also beat the money lines?

Reason I ask is, Phil Steele is advertising 20 upset winners in five years with his Underdog Play Of The Week in PowerSweep. He releases 13 plays per year and that puts his upset rate at about 30%. Based on the average point spread of these plays, he is not getting an increased rate of upsets, but he is beating the spread.

Does this signal a fluke with Phil's Underdog Play Of the Week or is it possible to beat the spread and not see a corresponding alteration of upsets?

Any thoughts?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

Not that this will address your question, but I blindly play every moneyline underdog in the NFL in the pre season.

Your post should begin an interesting thread.

Clipjoint,

I have often thought that dogs in the NFL preseason on the money line would be a huge money maker. As I understand it, they have recently (over the last few years) started posting lower and lower point spreads on preseason games. Whereas, 7 point favorites used to be common in the preseason, now they are very rare. I suggest this is because of the recent advent of money lines in football.

I think a lot of books do not even offer money lines in the preseason.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

It has been a cash cow for the last few years...a nice way to build your bankroll right before the regular season without even having to handicap games.

All of the major books that I know of have moneylines on the pre season. Pinnacle being the best obviously because of the reduced vig. I got on the Eagles early as they are starting to be bet down as well.

It is actually a fun way to get into the football season without capping the games yet still having an interest on the outcome. I don't watch much pre season football but it is always fun the next morning to check the scores and be on the + side even with a 50% day on 10 games or so. That would normally leave you down -0.5 units or so if betting -110 ATS lines and instead you end up +1.5 to +2.0 units.

:toast:

I might play that next year, but this year I am a sucker (again). I am playing Phil Steele's Preseason Late Phones. He's off to a typical Phil Steele start of 1-3.

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

NFLX moneyline dogs are 8-8 +2.5 units just based on the closing moneyline for CRIS on Don Best. I am up slightly more just because I don't use them unless they are the highest dog line which hasn't been the case.