Assuming that you're a good sports bettor, it's always better to take the $2,500. Even if you had an edge playing BJ, it's only one hand and you're relying on the long-term laws of statistical probability to play out in the short term; that's a mistake. Turning the $2,500 into more money is a game of skill, one hand of BJ a game of luck. Better to rely on long-term skill than short-term luck.
The odds that are in your favor are based on long-term results, not short-term results: and this is the ultimate in the short-term. And if I'm not mistaken, the odds that you will win a given hand of BJ are always against you if you're playing the first hand of a deck; i'm assuming that they're not going to allow a mid-deck entry for this kind of money.
Oh my goodness.
A poker analogy would be to say you have committed 2500 to a pot. You have 2500 left. A guy guys all-in on you with JJ and shows you his cards.
You hold AQ.
Saying "I will lose this one over 1/2 the time, I'm foldin.........I'll just use my remaining chips to wait for better situations". That obviously isn't gonna get it done.
If you prefer the 2500 Bonus Play over the 5,000 in expectation, then I'm afraid you and I are going to have to agree to disagree, as I seriously doubt we will ever agree on things, if we cannot see eye to eye on what I believe is a total "solve by inspection" problem.
A better question is make the stakes your ENTIRE bankroll. You are broke. You can take 250,000 or have a free 500,000 bet. I'd STILL TAKE THE chance, fyi.
I find guys with small bankrolls who are unwilling to take chances like this blame the small bankrolls for having to turn it down. The opposite is often true. THEY HAVE SMALL BANKROLLS BECAUSE they ignore great opportunities like this.
A poker analogy would be to say you have committed 2500 to a pot. You have 2500 left. A guy guys all-in on you with JJ and shows you his cards.
You hold AQ.
Saying "I will lose this one over 1/2 the time, I'm foldin.........I'll just use my remaining chips to wait for better situations". That obviously isn't gonna get it done.
If you prefer the 2500 Bonus Play over the 5,000 in expectation, then I'm afraid you and I are going to have to agree to disagree, as I seriously doubt we will ever agree on things, if we cannot see eye to eye on what I believe is a total "solve by inspection" problem.
A better question is make the stakes your ENTIRE bankroll. You are broke. You can take 250,000 or have a free 500,000 bet. I'd STILL TAKE THE chance, fyi.
I find guys with small bankrolls who are unwilling to take chances like this blame the small bankrolls for having to turn it down. The opposite is often true. THEY HAVE SMALL BANKROLLS BECAUSE they ignore great opportunities like this.
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 2119710" vAlign=top><TD class=alt2>The opposite is often true. THEY HAVE SMALL BANKROLLS BECAUSE they ignore great opportunities like this.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>08-18-2005 08:44 PM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
100% agree. The two most common fake excuses are "if I only had a bigger bankroll" and "bad money management". Very easy scapegoats but 99% of the time the dude is operating with negative EV and usually doesn't even know (or care) what EV is.
ID,
Blackjack is WAY too complicated to solve analytically, ie. to mathematically prove that the house edge is what it is. The method used to arrive at the figure is computer simulation -- something that doesn't produce exact answers but can get within any desired degree of accuracy subject to time and computing power constraints. With modern computing speeds, the accuracy obtained in a short time will be well above what is needed by anyone for practical purposes.
100% agree. The two most common fake excuses are "if I only had a bigger bankroll" and "bad money management". Very easy scapegoats but 99% of the time the dude is operating with negative EV and usually doesn't even know (or care) what EV is.
ID,
Blackjack is WAY too complicated to solve analytically, ie. to mathematically prove that the house edge is what it is. The method used to arrive at the figure is computer simulation -- something that doesn't produce exact answers but can get within any desired degree of accuracy subject to time and computing power constraints. With modern computing speeds, the accuracy obtained in a short time will be well above what is needed by anyone for practical purposes.
One thing to remember is that in order for the player to have an even chance to win with the Casino, the player needs to play perfect basic strategy. Of course that very strategy requires the player to use all the advantages He has over the dealer like splitting pairs, doubling down, hitting a soft 17 at the right time. Some of these require the player to have a person backing him if He doesn't have the Cash to do so. For instance dealer has a 6 up and player is dealt a pair of 8's. Correct play says always split the 8's. What if He gets another 8 ? He should also split that 8. We are now asking someone to put up another $ 10,000. Let's say player doesn't have a backer..... then player is stuck playing a lousy 16 hand. Of course with dealer holding a 6, He should hold and hope dealer busts. The point I'm trying to make is that basic strategy doesn't work 100 correct unless one has the $$ to play correctly. However, I would always say give me the $ 5000. hand if lieu of $ 2500. Doesn't seem all that difficult decision !
Its a free contest
No way would I put in my own money for a double down. I dont care If I have a decent chance of hitting. I have a chance of losing also.
It's only 1 hand, its not like I will see some more DD with those steaks to eventually pull ahead should I lose.
Why dont you walk around the high roller area and ask everyone with 11 vs. 4,5,6 not hitting can you put up the money for a double down.
Dont take this the wrong way boys, just kinda fun'n ya here
No way would I put in my own money for a double down. I dont care If I have a decent chance of hitting. I have a chance of losing also.
It's only 1 hand, its not like I will see some more DD with those steaks to eventually pull ahead should I lose.
Why dont you walk around the high roller area and ask everyone with 11 vs. 4,5,6 not hitting can you put up the money for a double down.
Dont take this the wrong way boys, just kinda fun'n ya here
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