Whats the deal with winning and losing streaks?

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Sometimes you can do no wrong. And sometimes you cant pick a winner if the game is on ESPN Classic. Whats the deal? Does anyone believe in luck? Good and bad?:monsters-
 

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yes, i believe in luck. every bet you win is lucky. i think you can increase your luck by looking into games but figure this: if you bet a game to win on the run line, and that team is a .500 team and they win half their games by 1 run, then you basicly have a 25% chance of getting paid for that win. in my book you have to be lucky to win that bet. i think you can increase your luck by playing percentages and odds however. but that dosent always work either. ask the a's and royals...
 

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In the short run, luck is very important.

In the long run, losers are losers and winners are winners.

I know, because a few years back, I was a BIG loser. Nowadays, I am a SMALL winner and tread water.
 

Oh boy!
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I bet against Texas because they were on a bad streak and they won.
I bet against Baltimore because they were on a bad streak and they won.
I bet against KC because they were on a bad streak and they lost one game and won twice.

I have bet on 3 different pitchers in the midst of winning streaks and they lost (Zito twice).

There are 2 pitchers, Johann Santana and Seo for the Mets that I've bet on and they come through.
 

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I was wondering the same thing today CHOP. Like everything, I think it is just perception. I came to the conclusion that by chance we are all going to have winning streaks and losing streaks along with stretches where we win some and lose some.

No doubt though it seems like there are more streaks.

It could be some type of mystique with gambling.

"Doo..doo..doo...doo".

IS
 

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Worrying about luck is just loser babble. Think about what you are doing in an orderly, reasonable fashion and the luck will take care of itself.
 

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CHOPTALK said:
Sometimes you can do no wrong. And sometimes you cant pick a winner if the game is on ESPN Classic. Whats the deal? Does anyone believe in luck? Good and bad?

Chop, I'm a bit of a math freak. But I never cease to be amazed by what I see in sports. I can lose 9 in a row on pointspread plays with no problem whatsoever. I've done just that several times. On the surface, these plays are approximately like flipping coins. They are basically 50-50 plays. The chances of losing 9 straight are roughly the same as tossing a coin and getting tails 9 in a row. The math says it should happen once in 512 tries. And a try occurs with every play one makes. So, if you make 512 pointspread plays, you can expect a 9-game losing streak one time. In my experience, it has happened far more often than that. I had two such streaks last winter in the NBA alone.

Regardless of the math, the key for me is how we psychologically deal with losing. For instance, there is an enormous tendency to chase. Been there, done that. I am learning everyday about patience and money management. I am resigned to 9-game losing streaks. They WILL HAPPEN to me again. It's how I deal with it that will determine whether I succeed or fail at sports gambling. There is a steep learning curve in this activity, but I am getting there.

Finite's statement is true in my opinion, but I would categorically claim that it's easier SAID than DONE.
 

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All That`s Been Said Above

Is true to some extent. Sad to say I`ve been doing this for longer than most of you have been on this green earth. And if there`s one thing I`ve learned it`s that the Gods of gaming are fickle indeed. As someone said all you can do is prepare for each day as best you can, i.e. gather all the info possible. Of course the rub is how each of us interprets this data. Do I believe in "luck" and streaks? Of course I do, I`ve seen too many examples over the yrs not to. A few yrs back when living for the winter in LV I got on such a losing streak that I was afraid to leave the apt. Nothing BJ, Poker, sports, didn`t make any difference LOSER!! My daughter who has a PHD in math. Came out and of course she being the pragmatist that she is poo pooed my laments. After spending the day w/me even she was somewhat swayed. Fortunately as they always do this "streak" ended and swung the other way. The point being that during this time other than REALLY exercise MM I did nothing different. BTW Chop I like the way you bet, you seem to be a very controlled young man even in the face of adversity. This of course is the key for all of us DON`T CHASE. "Bad beats" or whatever will happen just know they will turn! Best of "it" to all of you.
 

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http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113180688/monkeys-believe-in-winning-streaks-062814/


[h=1]Like Humans, Monkeys Believe In Winning Streaks[/h]June 28, 2014
7

winning-streak-617x416.jpg

Image Credit: Thinkstock.com
Alan McStravick for redOrbit.com – Your Universe Online
Walk across any casino floor and you will see games that, from an outsider’s perspective, are clearly random. Playing your chances on which card will next be turned up, where the ball will bounce and land on a roulette wheel or how the dice will roll in a hot hand of craps are examples of placing your fate squarely in the realm of chance. Unless, of course, you are the one playing at any of these tables. There is something deeply ingrained in human behavior that unwittingly forces us to see the concept of a streak, winning or losing, in a situation that couldn’t be any more random.
Until a recent study, there was disagreement in the scientific community about whether this “hot-hand bias” was a learned cultural artifact picked up in our youth or a predisposition rooted deeply in our cognitive architecture.
Tommy Blanchard, a doctoral candidate at the University of Rochester (UR) studying brain and cognitive sciences and lead author of the paper has conducted the first study in non-human primates meant to explore this systematic error in decision making. Surprisingly, it was found that monkeys share the same unfounded belief in winning and losing streaks that we humans often see. Theorizing that this is, in fact, an inherited or evolutionary adaptation, Blanchard claims this pattern-seeking may have been a key factor in providing a selective advantage to our ancestors during the act of foraging for food in the wild.
Collaborating on the study were assistant professor of brain and cognitive sciences at UR, Benjamin Hayden and Andreas Wilke, assistant professor of psychology at Clarkson University. Their findings are to be published in the forthcoming July issue of the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Learning and Cognition.
The study was able to determine that rhesus monkeys have a proclivity towards believing in winning streaks. This was achieved by the creation of a computerized game that, as the researchers note, was so compelling the monkeys would want to continue playing for hours on end. “Luckily, monkeys love to gamble,” Blanchard commented. The team devised a fast-paced task in which each monkey could choose from either the left or right side. With each correct selection the monkey was presented with a reward.
Within the game were three styles of play. The first two presented clear patterns to the monkey players. The correct answer would often repeat on one side in the first game play scenario. Scenario two would see the correct answer alternate from side to side. However, the third style of game play presented no discernible pattern and was created to be completely randomized.
The three monkey participants were very quick to pick up on the patterns in the first two game play situations allowing them to quickly guess the correct sequence. However, when the game was switched to its random mode the monkeys would continue making their selections as if they expected a “streak.” Even when the rewards were random, the monkeys favored playing one side.
Over several weeks of play and 1,244 trials per game play situation, the monkeys just could not shake their hot-hand bias. “They had lots and lots of opportunities to get over this bias, to learn and change, and yet they continued to show the same tendency,” Blanchard explained.
It’s the steadfast belief that luck will change even when all available evidence points to the random nature of the task that led the researchers to theorize this trait has roots in our early evolutionary history. The distribution of food in the wild, which is not random at all, could well be the culprit. “If you find a nice juicy beetle on the underside of a log, this is pretty good evidence that there might be a beetle in a similar location nearby,” Hayden noted, “because beetles, like most food sources, tend to live near each other.”
When you add the fact that our brains have been trained over millennia to seek out patterns, it is not a far stretch to imagine that we would overlay that desire onto a situation that is completely random. “We have this incredible drive to see patterns in the world, and we also have this incredible drive to learn,” stated Hayden. “I think it’s very related to why we like music, and why we like to do crossword puzzles, Sudoku, and things like that.” He continued, “If there’s a pattern there, we’re on top of it. And if there may or may not be a pattern there, that’s even more interesting.”
Blanchard explains how he was drawn to the study thanks to his training in philosophy prior to his doctoral work. “Biases in our decision making mechanisms, like this bias toward believing in winning and losing streaks, say something really deep about what sorts of creatures we are. We often like to think we make decisions based only on the information we’re conscious of. But we’re not always aware of why we make certain decisions or believe certain things.”
Results from this study could find practical application in the treatment of gambling addiction as well as provide insight for investors in the stock market. “If a belief in winning streaks is hardwired,” explained Hayden, “then we may want to look for more rigorous retraining for individuals who cannot control their gambling.” Hayden concluded, “And investors should keep in mind that humans have an inherited bias to believe that if a stock goes up one day, it will continue to go up.”
“We’re a complex mix of biases and heuristics and statistical reasoning,” Blanchard added. “When you put it all together, that’s how you get sophisticated behavior. We don’t know where a lot of these biases come from, but this study – and others like it – suggest many of them are due to cognitive mechanisms we share with our primate relatives.”
Funding for this research study was provided by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation.
Image 2 (below): Benjamin Hayden and his group study decision making in Rhesus monkeys at the University of Rochester and at a field site in Puerto Rico, where this photo was taken. Credit: Sarah Heilbronner, University of Rochester
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Source: Alan McStravick for redOrbit.com - Your Universe Online



Read more at http://www.redorbit.com/news/scienc...n-winning-streaks-062814/#Sp0QELusbwy7g1wU.99
 

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