Line move play on Tampa Bay today

Tampa Bay +115 -vs- Cleveland

Cleveland opened up as a -138 favorite and is now bet down to -122, yet the action seems to be coming in on Cleveland to the tune of 63% at Sports Insights and 60% at Wagerline.

All 3 items I look for are present in the line moves.............

1. The line moved in the same direction at all books
2. When there was an up-tick during the day, it was followed quickly with a down tick
3. The follow through down tick continued to set the odds at new lows


Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
08/24/05 4:10:23 PM 128 (Open)
08/24/05 4:20:24 PM 128
08/24/05 5:30:29 PM 124
08/24/05 11:32:36PM 120
08/25/05 1:20:22 AM 119
08/25/05 2:40:22 AM 119
08/25/05 4:50:22 AM 121
08/25/05 9:40:37 AM 119
08/25/05 9:50:22 AM 115
08/25/05 10:00:34AM 114
08/25/05 10:10:31AM 116
08/25/05 1:40:31 PM 111
08/25/05 4:10:23 PM 112

5Dimes Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
08/24/05 11:38:54 PM 124 (Open)
08/24/05 11:49:01 PM 120
08/25/05 12:38:52 AM 119
08/25/05 1:28:52 AM 117
08/25/05 2:08:52 AM 120
08/25/05 2:19:02 AM 118
08/25/05 2:48:58 AM 120
08/25/05 9:18:59 AM 120
08/25/05 9:39:01 AM 120
08/25/05 9:48:57 AM 119
08/25/05 9:59:03 AM 115
08/25/05 11:18:56 AM 114
08/25/05 1:40:17 PM 111
08/25/05 2:58:51 PM 111

Good Luck

MM

Why does line movement mean anything? It's not like someone TiVo-ed the game. The game hasn't been played yet.

cinci, this is the so called sharp theory, a system that is extremely reliable in college sports, less so in mlb. when the public is on one side (cleveland, in this case) vegas should move towards the other side (tampa in this case). so in this case, vegas is moving the line towards cleve, ie they should have made tb more desirable to get the public to be 50/50, so they are guarenteed to win the vig. this implies non public $ must have been bet on tampa.

if you believe in this theory, take tb, and youll be betting with the sharp ie non public $. get it?

Docslep,


Your concept is right but the analysis on this games line movement is off.

The public is on favored Cleveland therefore the line should either move higher or at worst stay the same.

Since the line moved lower, it indicates that greater money is coming in on Tampa Bay.

This Tampa Bay line move against the public may indicate sharp money.

Good Luck

MM

IMO, you also have to look at the trend of "public percentage vs. ML value" throughout the day. Sometimes the house moves the line lower to balance the bets. Say for instance, Cleveland had 80% on them earlier and now they only have 65% on them... The house dropping the line caused all the "line followers" to get scared and jump off Cleveland and take Tampa Bay instead. The trend that seems to be more effective is when the line drops and the bets on Cleveland go from 65% to 80% (i.e. sucker bet)

However, based upon the trend lines I have graphed for Cleveland today, Tampa Bay seems to be the play - as Cleveland went from 52% to 67% of the bettors, all while the line has dropped sharply.

problm is lottsa good cappers on cleveland.
but thats always how sharps look, against the "obvious" pick.
i find this more reliable in college hoops, last year, made lots of $. in mlb ,i havent been as happy. what do you think?

Took a look at the lineups...I noticed that there is no Crawford in the lineup for Tampa and no Travis Lee either.

Just wanted to give a heads up

Good Luck

i like the under 9 in this one, as well as the under 4.5 first 5 innings

docslep said:

problm is lottsa good cappers on cleveland.
but thats always how sharps look, against the "obvious" pick.
i find this more reliable in college hoops, last year, made lots of $. in mlb ,i havent been as happy. what do you think?

Click to expand...

Yeah seems strange with the obvious pick and all....but then Ana won last night....and I feel scared to play them again...but I may have to the way Balty's bats have been so ice cold.

TFT

Many times I have put a bet in on the "sharp" team , only to see the other team's ML jump 20$ or more within the last 5 minutes! Maybe sharps are trying to lower the Cleveland ML and then are going to bang it at the reduced price??!?

I can't take TB anyways if Carl Crawford is out!!! Thanks for the heads up on that.

The more this line is dropping, the more that I like the Indians. The time to take TB was last night as a decent sized dog. Tonight it is either Cleveland or pass. Not willing to take TB as a very small dog. Just cant do it, especially with no Crawford. Just my 2 cents.

SB

After the line-ups were announced, there was another slight drop of the line indicating additional action on TB.

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align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -119</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 2:40:22 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 4:50:22 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>121</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:40:37 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:50:22 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>115</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 10:00:34 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 10:10:31 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>116</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 1:40:31 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>111</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 4:10:23 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>112</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:00:22 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>113</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -123</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:10:22 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>113</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -126</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:40:32 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>112</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -126</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:50:23 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>109</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -126</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD class=smtext2 width="40%">5Dimes</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle width="30%">Odds (Line)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/24/05 11:38:54 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>124</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125 (Open)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/24/05 11:49:01 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>120</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 12:38:52 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 1:28:52 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>117</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 2:08:52 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>120</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 2:19:02 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>118</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 2:48:58 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>120</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:18:59 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>120</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5o -120</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:39:01 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>120</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:48:57 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>119</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 9:59:03 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>115</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 11:18:56 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 1:40:17 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>111</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>9u -125</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 2:58:51 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>111</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5o -120</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 5:58:53 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5o -120</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:08:53 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5o -115</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:28:51 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>114</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5 -110</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:38:53 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>113</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8.5 -110</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>08/25/05 6:48:54 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>