Which is a better wager... +2 or Moneyline?

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1>I took the Redskins +2 last night.. I didn't need the points. I wonder how often the 2 points factors in with the final score.

Getting +115 on the moneyline sure seams a lot better than +2 (-110)

IS


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Lets hear some answers posters!!

I'd generally take NFL ML +115 over +2-110.

I'd buy up to 3 ----- hate to lose by a field goal. If I win outright I pick up the $$$ anyway.

MoneyManager said:

I'd buy up to 3 ----- hate to lose by a field goal. If I win outright I pick up the $$$ anyway.

Click to expand...

You'd pay -140 for +3?

well the margins of victory in the NFL is something like this. 5% of all games end with a 1 point margin of victory and about 3.5% will end with 2 point MOV.

So there's about an 5% chance that your moneyline bet will lose when a +2 bet would've won.

No, When I saw the price I'd probably just take the +2 .

Personally I'd just take the moneyline - like EasyMoney said, the changes of losing by 1 or 2 are fairly slim

teams when by 1 5% of the time? that seems high.

How well do you know Oakland?? I dont know the matchup well enough,, but I would ask you this,,, how many of OAKS games END with a 1 pt win or lose? If were looking at TB l;ast year Id say take the Dam points,,,, But Geesh,,,

I think knowing how the TEAMS play one another and the HABITS of eash is more to factor in here,,,

Id take the ML with MOSS gettin ready to Drop bombs,,,,

tater

WHAT ABOUT -2 OR -2.5 vs. MONEYLINE

In my humble opinion it depends on certain things . If ever going 2 play a FAV in NFL it's usually very early in the week . In NFL if I like a team early @ +1,+1.5 or +2 I probably think they are going to win outright & if I think # will be rising I will wait till last minute & try to get the best ML ( do lots of quick shopping at right B4 kickoff ) & hit only the MONEYLINE if # is better than +115 , risking 5 units . But if spread goes to +2.5 ( or of course +3 on its own ) where I can move it to +3 & I can get +3 at no worse than -120 I'll play 4 units on +3 & Then play ML for 2 units . I'll do this instead of only ML play because value of the #3 in NFL . Straight plays , ( not ML ) unless I think I am getting SUPER VALUE , are usually to win 5 units .

In BASKETS if line goes to +2.5 I probably buy to "3" (not near as expensive as in NFL ,especially @ PINNY ) & hit game straight for 4 units +3 & MONEYLINE for 2 units .This way I still make $$$ ( that is the ultimate goal , correct ? ) if there is a 1 or 2 point outright victory by FAV .Try to stay disciplined so have somewhat similar risk if I lose . Never understood a normal square ( which U can consider me ) playing 3 games for $200 & another one for $600 just because they like it a "little" bit more .What % of the time to they go 3-1 but lose $$$ ?

Contrary to popular opinion I also feel it is more valuable to play a # that takes a loser to a push VS. getting a # that takes a push to a winner ( @ 10% juice , lets say play is 550 to win 500 ) My theory is getting the push saves U 550 ( net value of +550 ) while getting win U only gain 500 ( net value of +500 ) . Isn't 550 worth more than 500 ? Would like to hear other opinions , especially ones that proves me to be a fucking idiot about this . Am ONLY considering this one play & not a situation where I have ML plays or any other plays involved . Thanks 4 any input.GL