Here a few things that have enabled me personally to stay in the BLACK in regards to wagering on NFL football over the last 25 years.
A few of these are NOT SET IN STONE for everybody, but my personal primers...........feel free to add your own that have worked for YOU.
1. SHOPPING LINES---Always attempt to get the best possible line available, and on the same token, very rarely do I ever wager a game where I could have had a better number.
2. WATCH AS MANY GAMES AS POSSIBLE---Many feel this is unnecessary.....not me. If one can watch a game totally with unbiased opinion and search for unknown little public clues, it can help tremendously the following week.
3. NEVER LAY OVER -3 ---When I say never, I mean never! Havent laid over 3 points in any NFL game(not taking middles into consideration which are rare) for well over 10 years. Some individuals may find this as a fault, but for me personally it makes my job much easier for a number of reasons and I can almost promise you if you have been a losing NFL handicapper through the years and do nothing else but adopt this rule, your results will improve dramatically.
4. Never take +6.5 if...you can buy a game to +7 for a mere 10 cents or less! This is especially true since the inception of the 2-point conversion in the rules.
5. Keep good records---Know exactly how you are doing on the year in terms of W-L record and more importantly moneywise. This is a no-brainer that should be applied in every sport.
6. Know the top PUBLIC teams on a weekly basis---This is very very important to know. Sometimes this is not an easy thing for the beginning neophite NFL handicapper to take seriously and/or to know who these team actually are on a weekly basis. Once realized, I go against these teams approximently 75% of the time.
7. Know injuries and understand them--- Ask yourself how an injury will effect a team.......both from a team standpoint and how it is effecting the spread. Remember, teams will more times than not tend to cover the spread the first time out after a major injury to a superstar for the reasons stated above.........the public will be against them and they will have a greater chance of being favored by less than -3 and may in fact be an underdog.
8. Money management---Establish a "betting bankroll" and determine a % of that BR to wager on each game. One key to my personal success is that I never RETRACT the size of my unit wager once the season starts, but allow myself to wager more per game as the season progresses or in certain situations. Of course this does not include very very small wagers that I will just call my "recreational" wagers that over time have no real impact on my BR whether I win or lose. Obviously could go on and on and on about this subject. The important thing I recommend here is THAT YOU HAVE A PLAN SET FORTH BEFORE THE SEASON BEGINS ON HOW YOU PERSONALLY ARE GOING TO HANDLE WINNING AND LOSING STREAKS AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES...........BE PREPARED AND HAVE A SET PLAN OF ACTION.........DO THIS WEEKS BEFORE YOUR FIRST WAGER!!
In closing, it is strictly CHANCE that you found this thread.
It is also CHANCE that you chose to read it and are presently looking at this sentence.
The ODDS are very high that indifference will govern your reaction or responses to it, and it is quite PROBABLE that those who do read this and haven't given these topics any previous thought, never will.
Remember, luck is whimsical and I do not place any hope or stock in it........for the most part.
Enjoy and here is to a successful NFL season!
:toast:
-Fish-
A few of these are NOT SET IN STONE for everybody, but my personal primers...........feel free to add your own that have worked for YOU.
1. SHOPPING LINES---Always attempt to get the best possible line available, and on the same token, very rarely do I ever wager a game where I could have had a better number.
2. WATCH AS MANY GAMES AS POSSIBLE---Many feel this is unnecessary.....not me. If one can watch a game totally with unbiased opinion and search for unknown little public clues, it can help tremendously the following week.
3. NEVER LAY OVER -3 ---When I say never, I mean never! Havent laid over 3 points in any NFL game(not taking middles into consideration which are rare) for well over 10 years. Some individuals may find this as a fault, but for me personally it makes my job much easier for a number of reasons and I can almost promise you if you have been a losing NFL handicapper through the years and do nothing else but adopt this rule, your results will improve dramatically.
4. Never take +6.5 if...you can buy a game to +7 for a mere 10 cents or less! This is especially true since the inception of the 2-point conversion in the rules.
5. Keep good records---Know exactly how you are doing on the year in terms of W-L record and more importantly moneywise. This is a no-brainer that should be applied in every sport.
6. Know the top PUBLIC teams on a weekly basis---This is very very important to know. Sometimes this is not an easy thing for the beginning neophite NFL handicapper to take seriously and/or to know who these team actually are on a weekly basis. Once realized, I go against these teams approximently 75% of the time.
7. Know injuries and understand them--- Ask yourself how an injury will effect a team.......both from a team standpoint and how it is effecting the spread. Remember, teams will more times than not tend to cover the spread the first time out after a major injury to a superstar for the reasons stated above.........the public will be against them and they will have a greater chance of being favored by less than -3 and may in fact be an underdog.
8. Money management---Establish a "betting bankroll" and determine a % of that BR to wager on each game. One key to my personal success is that I never RETRACT the size of my unit wager once the season starts, but allow myself to wager more per game as the season progresses or in certain situations. Of course this does not include very very small wagers that I will just call my "recreational" wagers that over time have no real impact on my BR whether I win or lose. Obviously could go on and on and on about this subject. The important thing I recommend here is THAT YOU HAVE A PLAN SET FORTH BEFORE THE SEASON BEGINS ON HOW YOU PERSONALLY ARE GOING TO HANDLE WINNING AND LOSING STREAKS AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES...........BE PREPARED AND HAVE A SET PLAN OF ACTION.........DO THIS WEEKS BEFORE YOUR FIRST WAGER!!
In closing, it is strictly CHANCE that you found this thread.
It is also CHANCE that you chose to read it and are presently looking at this sentence.
The ODDS are very high that indifference will govern your reaction or responses to it, and it is quite PROBABLE that those who do read this and haven't given these topics any previous thought, never will.
Remember, luck is whimsical and I do not place any hope or stock in it........for the most part.
Enjoy and here is to a successful NFL season!
:toast:
-Fish-
