Last night's game between the Rams/Lions reminded me of a trend that started ly in NFL on betting 2nd half sides. In the past when I had bet a favorite for the game, and they play poorly in 1st half, I have ended up at times doubling up by betting 2nd half side and have lost majority of these plays. I started at the end of the season when I bet a 2nd half side, regardless of score, to bet the team that played better in the first half regardless of what the game line was. Last night I parlayed Rams/over in 2nd half and it was a fairly easy winner. My questions are this: First, has anybody tracked betting the team that played better in first half in 2nd half and what the percentages were? Is there anybody who bets a ton of 2nd halfs that can chime in on what they look for and what the numbers are? It seems there is more value in betting 1st/2nd half lines a lot of times than the games. I have got a system on 1st half that has been really successful in fb and bb but wanted to focus on these 2nd half line. Thanks.
imo, i would never place a second half bet on a game that i've already bet for the game. Winning or losing at halftime. Its kinda like chasing your loses and that usualy ends badly. Or getting to greedy if your teams already covering can end badly also. What may have looked like a sure winner at half-time, has now cost you two bets instead of the original one bet. That said, i would tend to bet the team thats winning the game at half-time. Theres alot more pressure on a team thats behind at the half and the offense may suffer from this drasticaly. More passing plays to move the ball faster could equal more turnovers which could equate to quick scores for the other team. Also, a team thats behind will likely have the more tired defense. The team thats ahead will probably come out in the 2nd half pounding the ball on the ground to wear down the D even more. This can lead to fewer oppertunities for the team thats behind to get back on offense. So a fairly close half-time score can quickly get out of hand if these things happen.
Pressed for time, but I'll toss out a little data from the past 2 seasons plus this season's exhibition games. The team that covered the 1st half also covered the 2nd half 53.7% of the time. Sample size is on the small side of course. For college, I show 52.2%. Games with a first half push are ignored.
I haven't looked at my basketball data in awhile, but I think the numbers are fairly similar there.
I haven't looked at my basketball data in awhile, but I think the numbers are fairly similar there.
