My buddy gets money percentages from a few big sportsbooks, and we base it off that.. Sports insights totally sucks now! They only release betting %, not money %.. That is worthless because a $50,000 investor will wipe out 50 $1,000 bets. He had money coming in all day on the Mets, then boom, HARD MONEY came in on the Phillies late, and that always equals sharps... Square bettors took the Mets because of Seo...Co-Captain said:
wiseguysunlimited said:
Thanks for sharing the info...In regards to your example of one $50,000 investor...wiping out 50 $1,000 bettors...imo is not something I would place that much value on...I believe that with all info available these days via the net more and more people are making smarter bets and are becoming bettor investors...so its hard to just simply believe that alot of money coming in is smart money...Sometimes 50 people can come up with 50 different angles and info which makes their bets the wiser play....while one big bettor may not be able to do the same, which then may lead them to simply go the opposite way of the public because of the old belief that the public always loses...
More money doesnt always represent smarter money or winning money...all it does is represent More Money....we gotta remember that the Value of money is different for everyone..and just because one can drop $10,000 grand on a game while others only can drop $500 on their strong play, doesnt mean that the more money will win out...People always forget this and start looking at the money instead of looking at the information, insights, stats, trends, and the many situations which all can give a team that extra edge over their opponents.
I had the Mets in this game, which was a Top Rated Play for me (posted at BC and OPU)...and it was a combination of pitching matchup with Seo...some past stats/trends between the two teams...Current play by both teams...and also several Situational Setups which I felt would work in the Mets favor as far as motivation, focus, confidence, and a better sense of urgency ....I also took into account where this game is being played as well....Home Field Advantage seemed to have been Key to the Mets even being in this Wild Card race...as this is where they are playing with the most confidence and in this game you need those things like that to keep your team believing and fighting all game long....At Home the Mets are a confident team...and when mixing this in with the fact that they have owned the Philly's this year, along with their current success on their recent Road swing, which moved them even closer in the Wild Card standings...not to mention also that this is the only home series for them and then its back on the Road again...All added together simply equated to what I felt would increase their motivation, focus, sense of urgency, and Confidence in this game tonight.
This Mets team is playing with a desire and enthusiasm and energy now...while the Phillies have been at the top of the Wild Card standings for some time...making me believe the hungriar team is the Mets....Home Field and a Shut down pitcher in Seo, who btw also had some extra motivation in this one to continue pitching well because Trashel is back and looking for his starting position again....Obviously he didnt have that good of a game...but again there was many more factors in this game which only added to the Mets being the better call for me today...
Sometimes just watching the money only can come back to hurt you...especially if one doesnt take the time to justify that following it is the right and best thing to do...IMO....Philly had one big inning, whereas the Mets came up with several....JMO, TFWIW...Aloha CC.
Ps...I believe the best thing is to do your homework and not worry so much where the money is coming in on...and remember, that the value of money is different for everyone...and if you dont know exactly where yours match up to the others or if those laying the money even did their own homework or is just dropping the cash because he has alot of it to drop, or is dropping it because of betting styles which have really nothing to do with the game but moreso with what others (public) are doing is simply riskier business to me.
One last thing...regarding this line on the game...I didnt see so much line movement that would indicate one sided action....and consensus cant be trusted with it showing the money amounts with the betting % along with it.
But bases is one sport that has so many variables and unforeseen intangibles that can change the game around in the blink of an eye...or should I say off of one bad pitch or one good hit...To many things can change the outcome...so better to side some times with the team having the most advantages...but that sometimes doesnt amount to shit either...Go figure...I agree in CBB and FB is alot more easier.
mrhognuts said:
I dont understand your last statement about had to win or lose cause in the long run, %%% wise, you will make money.????
Mets had to win, they had the more advantageous situtation which favored them being mentally in a more better position to win this game...These guys are pros so we know that they can play....we also know that baseball is a long season and teams and players go through alot of ups and downs...and you need to be able to recognize them as the happen...while also be able to recognize those things which can affect the outcome or inspire a team or player to play to their potential...and in this game the Mets had it...Then you put them in a game at Home where they confidence is high, along with havin already dominate the Philly's this year only adds to this confidence...and that makes them a solid team who will most likely play the hardest, with the most confidence, have the more energy and insentives...which they all did over the Phillys...and it showed with them grinding and back for this win throughout the game...that was also a team effort....Whereas the Phillies had a big first inning and then couldnt get a team effort to get the job done tonight and there are reasons behind why they couldnt, imo....Need to sometimes look deeper into things and not just at what is printed in the stat sheets or what is said on ESPN...
So with that said, I dont think there is anything Square about playing the Mets ....as I justified them to be the best side to back ....and it has nothing to do with being a public bettor...Why?..Because the public will not go through the lengths I do to justify playing the Mets...The Smart money was on the Mets...and this you can see by using the stats in this game...
My suggestion is not to be worried about what the public or sharps or others do period...Take the time to learn the game and what can affect the outcome of the game beside a talented player or players....Learn about things that can spark and motivate a team or players not cause it should, but because it will....Understand this and you may be able to read when a team or player will go in a funk, come out of it, or get on a hot streak....Do your work and do it with pride and you will most likely be able to side with the best team...instead of trying to worry about others are doing..
The Mets will SWEEP this SERIES or at worst lose one game, possibly in GM 3 with Trashel facing Lieber ...But, I feel the Mets will Sweep Em!....and believing this is based on many things and not just an opinion of what one may feel is the obvious to happen....Remember to find success in the long run %%% or $$$ wise....it takes the current and the games in the present or the short current run that gets you to a positive long run outcome overall....Longrun success is most times based on having many successful shortrun outcomes...If you know what I mean by that...Win many current games and the long and short runs will be both sweet..:toast:
Oh and dont forget that the METS are 9-4 overall vs the Phils this year and now 6-2 vs them at Home...not to mention that they have one of the best Home Recs, while the Phillies have a losing Road Record overall...and Lastly based on current play in the last 8 games for both..the Mets are 6-2...the Phillies are 4-4..
If you base the long run success based on these two team facing eachother on the year...and you sided with the Mets vs the Phils at Home...Your a Winner!....If you took the Mets in all games vs the Phillies...Your a Winner!.....and now based on the current play of both teams added in with the Mets success at Home to the Phillies woes on the Road..then following the Mets in this series will make you a Winner!....overall in all three of these catergories and this imo shows that you were Sharp inregards to the games played between these two team......
Mets 9-4 vs Philly overall.
Mets 6-2 vs Philly at Home this year.
Mets at Home 41-25.
Philly on the Road 30-34
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Now based on this, I fail to see how the Phillies were the smarter play and those that pounded them Big is a Sharp Player.....Just doesnt make sense to me..and this is just a short list of things that support the Mets being the smarter and sharper play today...
If you base the long run success based on these two team facing eachother on the year...and you sided with the Mets vs the Phils at Home...Your a Winner!....If you took the Mets in all games vs the Phillies...Your a Winner!.....and now based on the current play of both teams added in with the Mets success at Home to the Phillies woes on the Road..then following the Mets in this series will make you a Winner!....overall in all three of these catergories and this imo shows that you were Sharp inregards to the games played between these two team......
Mets 9-4 vs Philly overall.
Mets 6-2 vs Philly at Home this year.
Mets at Home 41-25.
Philly on the Road 30-34
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Now based on this, I fail to see how the Phillies were the smarter play and those that pounded them Big is a Sharp Player.....Just doesnt make sense to me..and this is just a short list of things that support the Mets being the smarter and sharper play today...
