someone talk me out of this

blueedwards · Aug 31, 2005

the usc season win total at pinnacle is 11.5 over +241. they play 12 games. so, if you bet the over, you need to run the table and go 12-0.

looking at the schedule, i see only two games where sc has a chance to lose...at arizona state and at cal.

if i hit the over for say $500 to win $1,200...then bet arizona state and cal catching the points for $500 each. obviously its not guaranteed to make money but, its possible to hit the future bet and make money on the other 2 games it they are close but sc wins. also, if they lose the first game (at asu), i break even.

alright, tell me how stupid i am...i can take it.

michael777 · Aug 31, 2005

smart play blue,go for it :money8:

antipublic · Aug 31, 2005

Then bet "No" on "Will USC finish the regular season undefeated" at BoDog @ -125

blueedwards · Aug 31, 2005

antipublic said:
Then bet "No" on "Will USC finish the regular season undefeated" at BoDog @ -125

that is a much better strategy...thanks!

D2bets · Aug 31, 2005

antipublic said:
Then bet "No" on "Will USC finish the regular season undefeated" at BoDog @ -125

Wow.

So for example:
375/300 at -125
198/477 at +241

573 becomes 675 with a hoding period of around 4 months. That's 17.8% interest, or APR around 53%. Not bad.

blueedwards · Aug 31, 2005

D2bets said:
Wow.

So for example:
375/300 at -125
198/477 at +241

573 becomes 675 with a hoding period of around 4 months. That's 17.8% interest, or APR around 53%. Not bad.

thats my boy...

Journeyman · Aug 31, 2005

blue edwards said:
the usc season win total at pinnacle is 11.5 over +241. they play 12 games. so, if you bet the over, you need to run the table and go 12-0.

looking at the schedule, i see only two games where sc has a chance to lose...at arizona state and at cal.

if i hit the over for say $500 to win $1,200...then bet arizona state and cal catching the points for $500 each. obviously its not guaranteed to make money but, its possible to hit the future bet and make money on the other 2 games it they are close but sc wins. also, if they lose the first game (at asu), i break even.

alright, tell me how stupid i am...i can take it.

Sharp thinking :103631605

D2bets · Aug 31, 2005

blue edwards said:
thats my boy...

Looks like the max is a lousy 100 bucks at bodog.

125/100
66/159

That's a long time to wait for 34 bucks. I guess it might pay for a decent dinner on December 4.

cincy_ · Aug 31, 2005

D2bets said:
Wow.

So for example:
375/300 at -125
198/477 at +241

573 becomes 675 with a hoding period of around 4 months. That's 17.8% interest, or APR around 53%. Not bad.

4 months is the WORST case scenario.

If they lose their first game, you get paid by Bodog within a week.

Fezzik · Aug 31, 2005

USC almost lost to Stanford last year.........

And let's not forget that in their 1st game, VTECH was beating them until a phantom pass interference call in the 2nd half changed the momentum and maybe the outcome.

:storm01:

blueedwards · Aug 31, 2005

D2bets said:
Looks like the max is a lousy 100 bucks at bodog.

125/100
66/159

That's a long time to wait for 34 bucks. I guess it might pay for a decent dinner on December 4.

booo!

Journeyman · Aug 31, 2005

Low limits make this not really worth it.

Dawoofdaddy · Aug 31, 2005

The Pac 10 is not as top heavy as last season. Their schedule is filled with spots where they could be beaten.

The low limits mentioned, should not be a problem if you decide to play it, for I believe pinny lets you play after the initial 500 if/when they make a small adjust with a new number.

After the Hawaii game, I dont see one single game that is an absolute "lock" for them to win. Their bye weeks are after Hawaii first game and prior to last game vs UCLA.

Pac 10 returning most QB and it seems like everyone "knows" they will be undefeated.

Obviously USC is loaded and you will have some shots to hedge for they will be favored in every game and the 4 road games in Sept and Oct look to be the best hedge spots.

Their pac 10 scores from last year.

@ Stanford 31-28
Cal 23-17
Zona st 45-7
Wash 38-0 Have to be better than LY flop season.
@Wazzu 42-12 I believe Wazzu QB was out for season prior to game.
@ Ore st 28-20 Not on this years schedule
Zona 49-9 Should be improved.
UCLA 29-24 Should be improved

Throw in games this year vs. Arkansas (usually some talent there), @ Oregon, @ Notre Dame, and Fresno and this schedule could trip them more than once if their heads are too bloated from 2 prior championships and CONSENSUS #1.

Best of luck to you either way you play this blue for you are one of the best posters at this site.

:drink:

PokerKingJim · Aug 31, 2005

I'm not sure about Bodog but most sites do not pay out on futures until the season is over, even if the outcome is decided beforehand. Any other sites have the prop up at a similar price as bodog? So weak that the limit is $100.

jwunderdog · Aug 31, 2005

Blue I would be concerned with the Oregon game as well. The more I look at what is coming back for Oregon the more I like them. Now watch they will go out and lose to Houston tomorrow night.:sad3:

blueedwards · Aug 31, 2005

jwunderdog said:
Blue I would be concerned with the Oregon game as well. The more I look at what is coming back for Oregon the more I like them. Now watch they will go out and lose to Houston tomorrow night.:sad3:

that line got beat down pretty good. somebody likes the houston squad...

ElIguana · Aug 31, 2005

Blue, your logic looks pretty solid to me, but what bothers me is simply the odds of a team going 2 straight seasons without losing a game, statistically almost IMPOSSIBLE! DaWoofdaddy explained it pretty well.

Good luck, and let us know how it comes out for you. :103631605

-Slim- · Aug 31, 2005

its called gambling for a reason.

someone talk me out of this

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