NFL betting QUIZ

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

1. Is the following a profitable set of wagers longterm?

Team A -2.5 -120
Team B +3.0 -101

2. Is the following a profitable set of wagers longterm?

Team A +3.0 -110
Team B -2.5 -116

Take your time in answering both questions and if not to much trouble, explain your answers.

I am out,
-Fish-

Dubpoet · Sep 1, 2005

In both cases I would take the team favored by 2.5 since so many games fall on 3 and the +3 teams would push but I have no math and in each game I would look at the teams. But I am interested in seeing to math. Go Angels!

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

DUB- Not asking which SIDE is best in each question, but rather if either of these scenarios is a winner longterm middling(siding) them.

Thanks

D2bets · Sep 1, 2005

Fishhead said:
1. Is the following a profitable set of wagers longterm?

Team A -2.5 -120
Team B +3.0 -101

2. Is the following a profitable set of wagers longterm?

Team A +3.0 -110
Team B -2.5 -116

Take your time in answering both questions and if not to much trouble, explain your answers.

I am out,
-Fish-

What's the trick here? I'll start by saying Wager set #1 is clearly superior to wager #2. Don't think I'd likely take either in most situations.

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

D2bets said:
What's the trick here? I'll start by saying Wager set #1 is clearly superior to wager #2. Don't think I'd likely take either in most situations.

:lolBIG:

No trick, just asking.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Thanks for your comments. :103631605

Proceed,
-Fish-

Dubpoet · Sep 1, 2005

Well, middle is 3 and a push in each option on one side. b is better if dogs always win which they don't. and when you miss the middle and juice out option 1 is also better with less juice spread at 21 total. in my theory

Polaris · Sep 1, 2005

I believe the answer is straight-forward, if betting sides, always bet at the lower juice.

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

Polaris said:
I believe the answer is straight-forward, if betting sides, always bet at the lower juice.

NO

Re-read the question.

You are betting BOTH sides in each question............and by doing so, is this profitable longterm.

Thanks again,
-Fishhead-

LEYKIS101 · Sep 1, 2005

Seeing how Pinnacle charges roughly 25 cents for on or off the 3 in NFL; I would say 1(21 cents) is profitable and 2(26 cents) isn't long-term. I would say the true odd of the 3 would be around 22-24 cents, going by the Pinnacle drop-down menu. I'm no expert, but that's how I'd judge it.

Fishhead - Excellent topic, very good time to bring this up.

:drink:

SportSavant · Sep 1, 2005

does team A represent road & B represent home?

Polaris · Sep 1, 2005

I believe the answer is straight-forward, if betting those so-called middles.

For arguement's sake assume that 17% of all NFL games from now to infinity finish with a score of differential of 3 points.

The answer to the orginal question posed would be how often does a quoted line of 3, does the game actually land on that line of 3?

Since we are assuming that in all NFL games a difference of 3 will happen 17% of the time, therefore there is a 17% chance it will land on 3, if the game is quoted at 3.

But which side is favoured, so the 17% really is 8½%.

So if from now to infinity, if 8½% of NFL games landed exactly like it was quoted above on the 3, then it could be profitable.

Does this really happen in real life, I don't know, and not really eager to find out. The data is there for anyone to make a quick study. Not for me though. :shocked: :hyper:

D2bets · Sep 1, 2005

THIS would be a tricky question...

Which set of wager is BETTER?

1. Team A -2.5 -130
Team B +3+ 115

2. Team B +3- 130
Team A -2.5 +113

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

Polaris said:
I believe the answer is straight-forward, if betting those so-called middles.

For arguement's sake assume that 17% of all NFL games from now to infinity finish with a score of differential of 3 points.

The answer to the orginal question posed would be how often does a quoted line of 3, does the game actually land on that line of 3?

Since we are assuming that in all NFL games a difference of 3 will happen 17% of the time, therefore there is a 17% chance it will land on 3, if the game is quoted at 3.

But which side is favoured, so the 17% really is 8½%.

So if from now to infinity, if 8½% of NFL games landed exactly like it was quoted above on the 3, then it could be profitable.

Does this really happen in real life, I don't know, and not really eager to find out. The data is there for anyone to make a quick study. Not for me though. :shocked:

Hint--You are low in your 8.5% assessment.......but close.

Polaris · Sep 1, 2005

Fishhead said:
Hint--You are low in your 8.5% assessment.......but close.

verrrryyyyy interesting ..... (insert sinister laugh here)

but I'm still not motivated enough to pick up that quarter off the ground!?

thanks.

Zapster · Sep 1, 2005

First of all it was VERY frustrating to see how many didn't understand the question at all !!!

But forget that..........

In order to get the answer to this, one stat is vital:

How often do games land right on the favorite winning by 3 ?

To be honest I don't know the answer, but I will use 10%.

Then in scenario A (at $100 per bet over 100 games)

Team A wins 50 times (+5,000) and loses 50 times (-6,000)
Team B wins 50 times (+5,000), loses 40 times (-4,040) and pushes 10 times
Net Loss = 40

And in Scenario B:

Team A Wins 50 times (+5,000), loses 40 times (-4,400) and pushes 10 times
Team B Wins 50 times (+5,000) and loses 50 times (-5,800)
Net Loss = 200

So......

***IF*** 10% is the correct figure, the answer is that neither are profitable middles.

If 10% is wrong, it is easy enough to recalculate.

Dawoofdaddy · Sep 1, 2005

:drink:

BlueWolf · Sep 1, 2005

I had the same logic as Zapster but with a higher % of pushes to show a profit.

At 15% pushes, set 1 gives me a profit of $465 while set 2 results in a profit of $350.

But the higher the percentage, the better option set 2 becomes. For instance, 20% pushes gives set 1 a profit of $1980, while set 2 produces $2000.

BlueWolf

Fishhead · Sep 1, 2005

GREAT ANSWER ZAPSTER!!!

It is all dependant on what percentage the number 3 will fall when the number is 3!

Keep in mind too, that we can take this one step further and tend to believe that the game will land on 3 more often when the total on the game is LOWER.

If one thinks a particular game will fall on THREE exactly 10% of the time like Zapster stated AND you are risking 21 cents total as in question #1, one would lose a mere $40 betting $100 over a span of 100 games.

It is up to the individual to decide if they think a particular game has a greater than 10% chance of landing on the number 3 in each individual game.

Personally, using a game with a standard total of 37 and a line of -3, believe this type of game WILL have the favorite win by exactly 3 more than 10% of the time and thus making risking 21 cents or less in the first question a profitable middle/side over the VERY LONG HAUL(however small).

Jarbo · Sep 1, 2005

Fishhead said:
GREAT ANSWER ZAPSTER!!!

It is all dependant on what percentage the number 3 will fall when the number is 3!

Keep in mind too, that we can take this one step further and tend to believe that the game will land on 3 more often when the total on the game is LOWER.

If one thinks a particular game will fall on THREE exactly 10% of the time like Zapster stated AND you are risking 21 cents total as in question #1, one would lose a mere $40 betting $100 over a span of 100 games.

It is up to the individual to decide if they think a particular game has a greater than 10% chance of landing on the number 3 in each individual game.

Personally, using a game with a standard total of 37 and a line of -3, believe this type of game WILL have the favorite win by exactly 3 more than 10% of the time and thus making risking 21 cents or less in the first question a profitable middle/side over the VERY LONG HAUL(however small).