good value in Bosox Orioles total

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HUH? 10.5 runs with David Wells & Rodrigo Lopez on the mound??? what am i missing?
Lopez last game vs BoSox, he tossed a 3 hitter in 8 innings, giving up nothing but a solo bomb. He is also 10-4 3.54 ERA lifetime vs. Sox.
Wells has an extremely consistent starter, giving up 3 runs or less in many of his starts. Wells lifetime ERA vs. Orioles is 4.1
If you add the ERA vs. opponent of each pitcher together, it is 3.54 + 4.1 = 7.64 runs. This is far below the 10.5 line on the board.
The potential holes in this play is that the BoSox pen will give up a lot of runs, or Lopez doesn't show up because he's been torched a couple times, including his last start. I know, Sox have been putting up 7 runs + very consistently at home.
But i foresee a close game, a possible pitching duel in this spot. 10.5 runs is A LOT of runs to lay against 2 strong starters. an 8 or 9 line would make me think, but this one is too high.
Bet it!
:103631605
 

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You are tempting fate
Its all about the park and the bats in this one

Just look at the recent totals there.....Any game going under is a total rare occurance
 

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ZZZSpeedster said:
You are tempting fate
Its all about the park and the bats in this one

Just look at the recent totals there.....Any game going under is a total rare occurance

...........where 16 of the last 17 games have been over the total...............guess it has to go under sometime...........
 

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If this appears to be a pitchers duel with the fear of the bullpens losing control, then it would make more for a call for a first half under.....bet it while the pitchers are dueling, before the guys throwing meat step onto the mound...

Personally I think it's playing with fire the way Boston games have been going....I think that there are more unders to be found betting west coast matchups and in the national league....
 

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Marco Agree Completely

Combined ERA 11.0 last 16 innings. 2 of the top 5 hitting tms in the AL, and last but not least FENWAY!!! I always ask myself no matter what sport, self I say "are there better games out there?" The answer in this case yes.
 

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Boston 8-2 under last 10 Sundays. Of couse small matter of Wells 6-0 over in day games :drink:
 

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Right on

Jdub is correct. In fact, I got the under at 11 a short time ago, which is even nicer. Lopez just has Boston's number, as strange as it sounds. And Wells walks nobody, which keeps big innings down.
 

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Actually took under 5.5 with plus money and Bal plus .5 first 5. Lopez major flipflop pictcher coming off bad outing.
 

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