"What's wrong with this picture" for Tuesday: double-header edition

quantumleap · Sep 6, 2005

I'm 5-0 in my picks when I question why the line is off. I was 3-0 taking the Giants and I won the White Sox today. I also asked on 8-27 why SD was favored with Lawrence pitching. I don't want to become overconfident. However I see 2 games for Tuesday that I can't understand the line.

Tor +119 over Bal
Lilly/Cabrera
This is largely a bet against Cabrera. Cabrera has only gone more than 5.1 innings once in his last 6 starts. This leaves a burden on the Oriole bullpen who has been pitching a lot in recent games. They pitched almost half the game on Saturday, 3 innings on Sunday and 3 innings today. Toronto is 5-3 in Lilly's last 8 starts and scored on Chen today.

SF +151 over LAD
Tomko/Penny
Yes, this is another bet on SF. They are winners of 7 out of their last 8. They handled the Dodgers today who have had problems scoring and have lost 5 out of their last 6. Tomko hasn't started in a couple weeks due to poor outings during the Giants' slump. However he pitched well in relief and should be well-rested. Penny has not fared well during his last 3 starts.

Comments are more than welcome.

BIGSHOTMAXXX · Sep 6, 2005

it takes a keen eye to notice "whats wrong with this picture"..seems you have that eye...keep up the sharp eye and the square balls.....:lolBIG:

quantumleap · Sep 6, 2005

BIGSHOTMAXXX said:
it takes a keen eye to notice "whats wrong with this picture"..seems you have that eye...keep up the sharp eye and the square balls.....:lolBIG:

:lolBIG:

Thanks for the comments and the jokes.

This gives me an excellent chance to mention Maxxx's XXX pick for Tuesday. That is to take Cleveland -127 over Detroit. You get a good price against a team that has only scored 3 runs in their last 4 games and have lost 7 out of their last 8.

pizzap · Sep 6, 2005

GL quantum! keep the streak alive :suomi:

winkyduck · Sep 6, 2005

no argument with either one

Journeyman · Sep 6, 2005

I like the Toronto play but not as much because Lilly is coming of an injury as well...Cabrera was on TILT his last few starts, Lilly is 3-0 vs balto, Cabrera is 0-4 vs Toronto...

Its definitely worth a shot I feel, I just wish Lilly had been pitching of late...Over may be worth a look as well.

Journeyman · Sep 6, 2005

BTW, Quantum nice work !

cincy_ · Sep 6, 2005

Nice going Quantum - you're really kicking ass lately. Keep it up

edub69 · Sep 6, 2005

I especially agree with the Giants play here. In general, Brad Penny gets some of the most overpriced lines out of any pitcher in baseball. You would think he is a Cy Young contender, not a guy who is 6-9 with a 3.91 ERA. I have made money fading him this year. Even though Tomko can blow up at times, hopefully his trip to the bullpen will have him motivated, and maybe he has learned to throw a pitch other than his fastball. All in all, getting the hot Giants team at +149 (current Pinny line) is a nice play.

I would add another game to the mix - Colorado +147 at San Diego
I don't see how Chan Ho Park and the mediocre Padres can be a -155 favorite over the Rockies, who are playing well, and Aaron Cook, who is pitching great since coming off the DL a few weeks ago. His sinker is really working right now. I would put this game close to even, with San Diego getting a slight edge for being at home maybe pushing them to a -120 favorite or so. As it stands, the line seems off to me and I will take the Rockies here.

Nice work on the 5-0 streak, keep it rolling :103631605

quantumleap · Sep 6, 2005

edub69 said:
Even though Tomko can blow up at times, hopefully his trip to the bullpen will have him motivated, and maybe he has learned to throw a pitch other than his fastball. All in all, getting the hot Giants team at +149 (current Pinny line) is a nice play.

Nice work on the 5-0 streak, keep it rolling[/QUOTE

Thanks edub. Tomko being relegated to the bullpen is a deciding factor in taking this bet. He has done well while there so I think he will be motivated when he returns as a starter so he doesn't get relegated again. He wants to be a part of this rally.

Omni · Sep 6, 2005

Lots of talk here in the Bay area that Bonds might be able to play very soon, maybe later this week.

This talk is everywhere and it has to have the Giants motivated, thinking if they can just hang on and stay in the hunt Bonds will come back and they'll make a run.

I'll put it how the radio guy put it yesterday...either Bonds is coming back sometime this weekend, or it's one of the biggest teases ever.

Good luck on yor plays!

quantumleap · Sep 6, 2005

Thanks guys.

The first one went upside down. Who would have thought Cabrera would have thrown 7 innings of no-hit ball? I guess he was coming off the disabled list and was well-rested.

Hopefully Tomko will be well-rested for the Giants tonight.

quantumleap · Sep 7, 2005

Dodgers beat the Giants in extra innings so I go 0-2 today.

:sad3:

edub69 · Sep 7, 2005

Too bad bro. Tomko pitched great tonight. Latoya Hawkins reared his ugly head for the Giants.:drink:

Omni · Sep 7, 2005

Giants blow a great Tomko start.

I still don;t know why they always bring out hawkins with the game on the line. He usually either gets into trouble then manages to get lucky and get out, or just flat out gives up the lead. Scott Eyre is actually not too bad a reliever and he's the guy they should really use in those spots.

"What's wrong with this picture" for Tuesday: double-header edition

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