I think a better question is how many plays a month you are playing or how many times you rollover your bankroll. You can have a $5000 bank and if you roll it over once a week that is $20000 a month. As opposed to a guy with a $10000 bank that doesn't roll it over twice in a month. The guy with the $5000 bank roll would benefit more. That being said I don't think either would justify paying $550.
I wasn't disagreeing with you since $500 is probably about right, it's just I know guys that bet nickels and Dimes but only bet a couple times a week, not worth it to them. A guy beting $300 a game but betting 10 games a night it is probably worth it. It is kind of funny how Football season is when these line services are talked about the most , yet basketball season is when you really get value out of them.
You need to consider your winning percentage since this is an additional expense.
At -110 pricing breakeven is 52.38% winners, while at -104 pricing breakeven is 50.98% winners (wow!!).
So a breakeven player can move from -110 to -104 and lose an additional 1.4% of bets and still breakeven. Assuming this 1.4% is used to pay for Don Best you need to put $39,285.71 into action each month.
The above illustrates the method you need to use to answer the question using your own winning rate, vig and total monthly action and gives a precise answer rather than a lot of arm waving.
At -110 pricing breakeven is 52.38% winners, while at -104 pricing breakeven is 50.98% winners (wow!!).
So a breakeven player can move from -110 to -104 and lose an additional 1.4% of bets and still breakeven. Assuming this 1.4% is used to pay for Don Best you need to put $39,285.71 into action each month.
The above illustrates the method you need to use to answer the question using your own winning rate, vig and total monthly action and gives a precise answer rather than a lot of arm waving.
The key is how much it will increase your win rate and reduce vig , not what your win rate is now.Putting a % on that can be difficult , by gaining and extra 1/2 -1 point how much will it increase your return? With baseball it is a little bit easier because you can see the savings or increased return on every bet.
jwunderdog said:
Yes, the reason to buy it is to increase your win rate and cut vig but that effect obviously cannot be determined until you use it.
You helpfully pointed out that total monthly action was the key consideration. I think your win rate now is important. You need to know that to measure the effect of using a line service. I simply provided a method to determine whether you could afford it.
I don't think we disagree. The method I used could be used to calculate the value of a line service if you make assumptions about the effect on win rate and vig before you buy it.
Saving vig isn't the only puprose..
I have two outs (1 euro exchange, 1 us exchange) that are horrendously slow at realising a price move. With G&J, three times last week I played big into a line move in progress, and with the exchange (prices adjust rather than the line) I got out into a decent profit. Those three scalps would've paid for G&J three times over, or Don Best 1.5 times..
Obviously that might not happen every weekend, but between tons of NCAA games, a slate of NFL and 7 days of baseball, I think most could recoup the costs if they have the time to invest.
I have two outs (1 euro exchange, 1 us exchange) that are horrendously slow at realising a price move. With G&J, three times last week I played big into a line move in progress, and with the exchange (prices adjust rather than the line) I got out into a decent profit. Those three scalps would've paid for G&J three times over, or Don Best 1.5 times..
Obviously that might not happen every weekend, but between tons of NCAA games, a slate of NFL and 7 days of baseball, I think most could recoup the costs if they have the time to invest.
