As a capper, I see differing views on when to start doing your homework and making a play on the upcoming weeks games. What I usually do is to start looking at the next week's matchups an average of 2 weeks in advance. For example, this past week if I was reviewing Pittsburgh/Tennessee in the NFL, I would also be looking at the following week's matchup's as well. When the lines come out then early Sunday evening, I look at the lines and compare to the anticipated line that I would make on the game. In a college game, I look for a minimum difference of 7 points and in the NFL, I am looking for a difference of 3 points or better. When there is a difference on Sunday evening, I make those plays early for the value. I then have other games that I check and look for during the week line movements that are against me which creates more value and place the rest of my plays periodically as this occurs during the week. The last plays I make come on gameday's especially in NFL when there are a lot of a big movements in my favor a couple of hours before the game. So as you can see, it is a nonstop process during the week for me. How about you? I would guess that over 50% of the posters post same day as game. How and when do you make your plays?
If you want line value, its imperitive to start Sunday night. In the case of Week 1 , I was picking off value in the spring and early summer. Detroit Pk, Cincy -2 1/2, Minny 4 1/2. Even if I don't like a game and I know the line value is their, I'm on it because I know i can do something with a better line later. I check periodically during the week and keep in the back of my mind that Carib has -102 on tuesday and Millenium has the 1/2 point on Friday. If games are around 7 I try to wait it out so I can use Millenium off or onto 7. And their are bargains on Sunday AM if You are patient. 49ers + comes to mind. I was able to hedge back some on TB + 6 1/2. That game easily could have been a middle for me.
Redeye,
How much of a difference between winning and losing a game is because of early favorable lines? I know that if you wait you can also get value on a game from public betting but on a game you love that you feel line is going to move with you is the type of game I am talking about. Also, when you get a chance, email me at kojak@therx.com so I can email you back as I wanted to talk to you about something. Thanks.
How much of a difference between winning and losing a game is because of early favorable lines? I know that if you wait you can also get value on a game from public betting but on a game you love that you feel line is going to move with you is the type of game I am talking about. Also, when you get a chance, email me at kojak@therx.com so I can email you back as I wanted to talk to you about something. Thanks.
jumpin in headfirst,has never worked well for me,i print out the lines,watch where they go & try to figure out the moves,very challenging & enjoyable,,,i read everything that 4 or 5 guys on this board have to say pertaining to the games throughout the week which is invaluable,no way in hell i could get a read on this entire nation other than therx,,not unusual for me to wait until the last possible second,tryin to get a half point,esp nfl,,if i really like a game,i bet it all over town early.happy trails
