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The path to the national championship, Week 3 [font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]

By Richard Cirminiello, CFN




The Rationale: 1. Members of the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 10 and SEC plus Notre Dame remain eligible for the Rose Bowl until they suffer their second loss. While not impossible, history shows that two-loss teams won’t finish as high as No. 2 in the BCS rankings.

2. Members of the six remaining conferences—Big East, C-USA, Mountain West, MAC, Sun Belt and WAC—must remain flawless to keep their remote hopes for Pasadena alive. While the Big East winner does earn a BCS bowl berth, the level of competition within the league would prevent a one-loss team from playing in the title game.

3. Cinderella is alive and well in college football, but there’s no way one-loss teams, such as Ole Miss, Illinois, Northwestern, Mississippi State or Stanford are about to pull off an upset of this magnitude. For the sake of time and space, they’ve already been nixed, along with unbeatens, such as Toledo or UTEP, whose schedules lack the requisite name brand opponent needed to impress pollsters.

[/font][font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]The Unbeaten Contenders (9)

[/font][font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]USC (2-0) At some point this season, USC is going to be challenged, but it sure didn’t come from Arkansas, who allowed the Trojans to reach paydirt 10 times in the Coliseum. Maybe they’ll be forced to break a sweat this weekend in Eugene by an Oregon team that should be able to move the ball. Under Pete Carroll, USC is just 1-3 in Pac-10 road openers, the lone win coming at Stanford in last September’s three-point squeaker.
Up Next: at Oregon

Texas (2-0) Out of an expected rout of Rice came a pleasant surprise for the ‘Horns: Heralded freshman Jamaal Charles is ready to contribute today. He ran amok on the Owls as Selvin Young nursed a bum ankle. Charles and king-sized fellow freshman Henry Melton will be household names around Austin for the next four years.
Up Next: at Missouri (Oct. 1)

LSU (1-0) The Tigers get back to work for just the second time in 2005 against a once-beaten Tennessee team that’ll be playing with a sense of urgency. The LSU secondary, which got abused by Arizona State two weeks ago, will be under the microscope, as will a defensive line, which put only nominal pressure on Sun Devil quarterback Sam Keller.
Up Next: Tennessee

Virginia Tech (3-0) The Hokies have pitched back-to-back shutouts, and have surrendered just three points over the last 10 quarters, partly due to the quality of their competition. Georgia Tech can beat a defense numerous ways, and presents a completely different challenge. An injury to starting guard Reggie Butler will force Frank Beamer to reshuffle his offensive line.
Up Next: Georgia Tech

Florida State (3-0) The ‘Noles are going to go as far as their defense takes them. And right now, it’s taken them to a 3-0 start with two very winnable home games awaiting them following the bye week. LB A.J. Nicholson played possessed in the win over Boston College, collecting 19 tackles and a pair of interceptions, the first of which was returned for a touchdown.
Up Next: Syracuse (Oct. 1)

Florida (3-0) Well, it sure wasn’t one for the Gator time capsule, but a win over rival Tennessee is never something to take for granted. As the offense continues to search for its mojo, the defense and special teams carried the team to a 16-7 win. The victory came at a cost, however, as the Gators lost WR Andre Caldwell for the year and top pass-rusher Ray McDonald for at least a month.
Up Next: at Kentucky

Georgia (3-0) It seems every other SEC team but Georgia is making headlines in September, however, the Dawgs just keep cruising through their first-half schedule. It wasn’t as easy as it should have been against heavy dog UL-Monroe, but Georgia survived unscathed, and is ready to begin a three-game SEC road trip that starts Saturday in Starkville.
Up Next: at Mississippi State

Purdue (2-0) Something just doesn’t look right with the Boilermakers. They’ve sort of sauntered through the first two games, looking a little soft on D and lacking a knockout punch. A visit to the Metrodome this week should bring out their A game. Joe Tiller is 6-0 against Glen Mason, and Purdue hasn’t lost to Minnesota since 1995.
Up Next: at Minnesota

Georgia Tech (3-0) When Tech visits Tech, the two teams might feel as if they’re looking into a mirror. Both have flourished behind aggressive, veteran defenses, power running games and dual threat quarterbacks, provided the Jackets’ Reggie Ball is able to suit up. Ball sat out last week’s win over UConn with viral meningitis and spent two days recovering at Emory hospital.
Up Next: at Virginia Tech

[/font][font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]The Unbeaten Longshots (22)

[/font][font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]Louisville (2-0) If the narrow Kentucky win in the opener raised doubts about Louisville, last week’s garroting of Oregon State eliminated them. The Cards played like a bona fide Top 10 program, getting major contributions from both sides of the ball. If they’ve got any hopes for Pasadena, a complete demolition of the Beavers on national TV was a must. Mission accomplished.
Up Next: at South Florida

Cal (3-0) The Bears’ early season struggles with consistency have been directly attributable to injuries. The lineup has been juggled out of necessity each week, although that has helped Jeff Tedford discover some unexpected depth. Witness third string RB Justin Forsett, who scorched Illinois for 187 yards and two scores in Marshawn Lynch’s absence.
Up Next: at New Mexico State (Fri.)

Virginia (2-0) It’s early, but the ‘Hoos look like a middle-of-the-road ACC team, rather than one that’s capable of stepping up and challenging Miami and Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division. A likely lay-up against Duke gives Virginia’s injured players, such as RB Wali Lundy and LB Ahmad Brooks another week to heal without feeling the need to rush back.
Up Next: Duke

Wisconsin (3-0) Are the Badgers ready to go on a run to start the year the way they did last year? We’ll have a much better idea after this week’s visit from Michigan, a team they haven’t beaten since 1994. Wisconsin is only giving up 40 yards a game on the ground, but their D-line depth is really being tested by injuries, the most recent to starting end Jamal Cooper.
Up Next: Michigan

Penn State (3-0) Ever since halftime of the Cincinnati game, QB Michael Robinson has been on fire. Yet neither Cincinnati nor Central Michigan play in the Big Ten, so the book is still out on whether the light has truly gone on for the senior. The Lions crawled in September and will walk with Northwestern before beginning a murderous October stretch.
Up Next: at Northwestern

Minnesota (3-0) Alright, Minny, it’s put up time. The Gophers have started at least 4-0 versus a soft slate the last three seasons, but have yet to break through and seriously challenge for a Big Ten crown. To pocket some genuine respect, they’ve got to beat a Purdue team that’s shown flaws in its first two games.
Up Next: Purdue

Alabama (3-0) The Tide is rolling behind a stingy defense and an offense that’s gotten crisper each week. In Saturday’s blowout of South Carolina, the young ‘Bama line owned the line of scrimmage, allowing the backs to gallop for 338 yards on the ground. Things are looking up for Mike Shula, but his kids can’t get caught looking ahead to Florida with a wounded Arkansas team up next.
Up Next: Arkansas

UCLA (3-0) UCLA’s most profound win of the Karl Dorrell era dug Bob Stoops and Oklahoma into a deeper ditch. The Bruins got a nice game from the defense and another great effort from QB Drew Olson, whose own victories over knee surgery and teammate Ben Olson have been inspirational to the rest of the team.
Up Next: Washington (Oct. 1)

Michigan State (3-0) The Spartans’ mastery of Notre Dame in South Bend continued with an edge-of-your-seat overtime win Saturday afternoon. The Drew Stanton-led offense has topped 40 points in each game, and boasts three solid backs and four receivers, who’ve already caught at least 10 balls and one touchdown this year.
Up Next: at Illinois

Iowa State (2-0) Fresh off a bye week that succeeded the huge upset of Iowa, the ‘Clones must avoid complacency against Army, a winless program they last faced in 1964. Iowa State spent the off week trying to put the Cy-Hawk victory in the rear view mirror, while working on getting more big plays out of the offense.
Up Next: at Army (Fri.)

Oregon (3-0) The newly-minted Duck offense has been a smashing success through three games with QB Kellen Clemens at the controls. This week’s arrival of No. 1 USC, however, means they may need to achieve a new level of production just to keep pace with the Trojans.
Up Next: USC

Texas Tech (2-0) Former quarterback Robert Johnson has made an incredible transition to wide receiver, but other than that, it’ll be hard to take anything from Tech’s first three games with Florida International, Sam Houston State and Indiana State. We’ll stop hitting the snooze button when the Big XII schedule begins in October.
Up Next: Indiana State

Colorado (2-0) Hard-charging LB Brian Iwuh is expected to return from a Sept. 6 knee scope, which would be a big boost for the Colorado defense. The Buffs, never one to avoid tough out-of-conference games, travel to Miami with an opportunity vault themselves into the Top 25 with an upset.
Up Next: at Miami

Washington State (3-0) Wazzu was never tested in the first three games, which could come back to haunt them once conference play begins next week. The Cougars fattened up on Idaho, Nevada and Grambling, getting plenty of second-half reps for second and third-stringers.
Up Next: at Oregon State (Oct. 1)

West Virginia (3-0) For the third consecutive week, West Virginia won with defense, shutting down Maryland long enough to allow the offense to explode with 24 decisive fourth quarter points. The effort keeps the Mounties ranked in the Top 10 in rushing defense, total defense and scoring defense.
Up Next: East Carolina

Nebraska (3-0) As good as the Husker defense has been this first month of the season, the offense has been equally bad. After 15 games, two springs and plenty of practices, Nebraska still doesn’t appear to have made noticeable strides in Bill Callahan’s West Coast system.
Up Next: Iowa State

Oklahoma State (3-0) An offense that ranks among the worst in the nation, despite opening with three pushovers, will be the focus of Mike Gundy as the Cowboys begin preparations for their Big XII opener. The unit simply doesn’t have the talent to overcome the poor execution and even poorer discipline that was pervasive in September.
Up Next: Colorado (Oct. 1)

Kansas State (2-0) Finally fulfilling prep expectations and leading the country in rushing, Thomas Clayton was arrested a week ago on charges of aggravated battery. Punishment will be meted out by Bill Snyder, but it’s still not known whether the senior will sit out Saturday’s game. The way North Texas is playing, Clayton might be more of a luxury than a necessity.
Up Next: North Texas

Vanderbilt (3-0) Yes, Vandy is the darling of the college football world, and yes, they’ll probably be 5-0 by the time LSU descends upon on Knoxville on Oct. 8. Strange as it is to say, anything less than a bowl game for the Commodores in 2005 is going to be considered a major disappointment.
Up Next: Richmond

Kansas (3-0) The Jayhawks are halfway to bowl eligibility, but three wins over three patsies may have uncovered more concerns than strengths, which needs to be addressed before league play begins. The play of the linebackers, however, is not an issue. Nick Reid already has 39 tackles, eight for loss, and Brandon Perkins is coming off a five-sack game, which earned him Big XII Defensive Player of the Week honors.
Up Next: at Texas Tech (Oct.1)

Indiana (3-0) The Hoosiers enter the bye week with a whole old oaken bucket worth of confidence after whipping Kentucky and getting to 3-0 for just the sixth time in 37 years. First-year head coach Terry Hoeppner is having an impact on an IU offense that’s getting contributions from both the passing and running games.
Up Next: at Wisconsin (Oct. 1)

Baylor (3-0) Off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 1996, it’s now up to Baylor to prove their record is not just a by-product of bad opponents by being competitive in College Station. Led by a core of veterans, the Bears are getting turnovers and stops for negative yards from an underrated and unheralded defense.
Up Next: at Texas A&M

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No Margin for Error (14)

[/font][font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]Ohio State (2-1) The D is just fine. It’s the offense that still needs some tinkering. In his first start since last November, QB Troy Smith was up-and-down versus San Diego State, missing receivers and generally showing some rust. Beginning this week with Iowa, getting more touches for Ted Ginn and Santonio Holmes will be a priority.
Up Next: Iowa

Tennessee (1-1) It’s early, but with expectations soaring, the Vols have been a disappointment, especially on offense. The shuffling of quarterbacks between Erik Ainge and Rick Clausen hasn’t helped, although Phil Fulmer has tabbed Ainge the long-term starter. It’s not even October, yet this week’s trip to LSU is a crossroads game for the 2005 season.
Up Next: at LSU

Miami (1-1) The ‘Canes avoided a rare 0-2 start with an exciting overtime victory at Clemson. Miami will look to use the game as a springboard for the rest of the season, but first needs to solve pass protection leaks, which have resulted in 14 sacks over the first two games.
Up Next: Colorado

Notre Dame (2-1) The bubble temporarily burst for the Irish, who got dumped by Michigan State in South Bend for the fifth straight time. Next stop Seattle, where many players will cross paths with Tyrone Willingham for the first time since the coach was sacked by Notre Dame last December.
Up Next: at Washington

Michigan (2-1) The Wolverines got healthy on Eastern Michigan, but also found out they lost starting safety Ryan Mundy for the year, depleting an already thin secondary. And it’s still too early in the week to know whether RB Michael Hart will be available for this weekend Big Ten opener with unbeaten Wisconsin.
Up Next: at Wisconsin

Iowa (2-1) So far, Iowa has not exactly looked like the team many felt would be a Top 10 fixture, losing ugly to Iowa State in a game that was sandwiched between easy wins over Ball State and Northern Iowa. The Hawks have an opportunity to climb back up the polls with an upset of Ohio State, their toughest road test of the season.
Up Next: at Ohio State

Auburn (2-1) The Tigers have picked up the pieces since opening the season with a loss to Georgia Tech, but just how far they’ve come along won’t really be known until October when SEC play resumes. Western Kentucky is the No. 2 ranked I-AA team in the country and should provide a stiffer challenge than Ball State did a week ago.
Up Next: Western Kentucky

Clemson (2-1) For the sake of Tommy Bowden’s health and sanity, Clemson needs a blowout in the worst way. The Tigers have played nailbiters in each of their first three games, including Saturday’s thrilling and deflating triple-overtime loss to Miami.
Up Next: Boston College

Arizona State (2-1) No one has come close to stopping a Sun Devil offense that features more playmakers than some small conferences and a mix of pass and run that’s been equally devastating. For the first time this year, ASU will venture outside the desert to face Oregon State, a team licking its wounds following a 36-point loss to Louisville.
Up Next: at Oregon State

Texas A&M (1-1) With SMU in the win column and Texas State and Baylor to follow, it’ll be a few more weeks before the Aggies face a serious challenge. They can use the next two Saturdays to fine tune a special teams unit that’s been less than stellar this month.
Up Next: Texas State

Boston College (2-1) BC hung tough with Florida State, but in the end, couldn’t match the ‘Noles’ speed, particularly when they had the ball. Starting QB Quinton Porter suffered a sprained ankle in the loss, and remains questionable for this week’s key ACC match up with Clemson.
Up Next: at Clemson

NC State (1-1) The Pack got into the win column, blasting Eastern Kentucky, but more important, appear to have found their back of the future—and present—in Toney Baker. The true freshman earned the start, and responded with 98 total yards and three touchdowns on just seven touches.
Up Next: North Carolina

Oregon State (2-1) The Beavers were outclassed in all facets of the game Saturday, losing 63-27 in Louisville. Things do not get any easier with this weekend’s visit from Arizona State, who’s averaging 630 yards and more than 48 points a game.
Up Next: Arizona State

Missouri (2-1) Mizzou bounced back from their first loss of the year by thumping Troy, the program that began last year’s slide. The Tigers get an extra week to prepare for Texas, and plug up some of the leaks that have sprung in the secondary the past two weekends.
Up Next: Texas (Oct. 1)

[font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]The Coalition Programs (1)

[font=verdana, arial,
sans serif]New Mexico (3-0) The Lobos are left to carry the flag for the rest of the mid-majors. Yeah, UTEP and Toledo are unbeaten, but neither play in a conference as deep as the Mountain West or will be able to boast a win over a BCS school. At least New Mexico can hang its sombrero on a 45-35 victory over Missouri.
Up Next: at UTEP

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My preseason sleeper...........



Penn State (3-0) Ever since halftime of the Cincinnati game, QB Michael Robinson has been on fire. Yet neither Cincinnati nor Central Michigan play in the Big Ten, so the book is still out on whether the light has truly gone on for the senior. The Lions crawled in September and will walk with Northwestern before beginning a murderous October stretch.
Up Next: at Northwestern

 

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