Saturdays play (46-36 +11.29 POD YTD)

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Back and forth with this one but going with Over 9.5 -115 AZ/SD.

AZ this year at home as a team is allowing opponents to hit .287 and avg. 5.9 rpg.This is all pitchers not just Ortiz who goes tonight.Ortiz all by himself is 1-6 at home and has an era of 6.88 (12.10 avg combined runs scored in these starts).In these contests AZ is allowing an avg of 7.40 runs a game by themselves.Ortiz is also one of a handful of guys who walk more batters than he SO.The Dbacks will be facing Lawrence who seems to be the SD equivelent of Ortiz.He's 5-9 on the road (5.33 era).In his last 3 road starts he allowed 5,4 and 5 ERs respectively.Its a trend among the Padres.Once they leave Petco the SD pitching staff struggles....this year allowing batters to hit .275 and avg 5.0 rpg when away.In the last 7 games SDs staff is allowing teams to hit .305 and avg 6 rpg vs them.I know neither team claims to be the Red Sox or Yanks offensively but there are nights when even weak hitting teams get it going.Matchups with Pedro,Smoltz,Willis etc arent usually when these bad teams hit...its these types of matchups when it generally occurs.The ump is neutral IMO and Bank One isnt the worst place for hitters.Both rosters seem to have guys that have hit the opposing starter.Both BP carrying eras of 4+ over the last 10.One more trend I like:

L3Y when the line is 9-9.5....
AZ @ home: 60-32 Over
SD on road: 42-25 Over

GLTA.
 

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