Why are authors playing horrible teasers??

Fezzik · Sep 27, 2005

Teasers in the NFL are readily beatable. However, bettors get buried by them, no surprise there, including experienced "knowledgable" guys.

I've read so far that one author got crushed when the Vikings teaser from -6 to pk'm lost week1, and now someone managed to lose with Indy -13.5 down to -7.5 this week. And these losses are attributed to bad luck. Bad luck??? Fire up the coffee pot, it is time for intervention people. Why not just donate the money to Hurricane Relief?

1. Teasing a -5.5 or -6 point favorite is quite possibly the worst play a player can possibly make. The reason is that even at favorable odds (2 teamer, 6 point teaser at -100) Each leg of a teaser is basically a -240 bet. So for example you bet $240 on a 2 team teaser. You basically are bettting 240 to make 100 on leg 1, and if it wins it rolls over to a 340 to make 140 on leg 2.
Anways, one can get a ML on such a favorite at -215 or so AND you don't have to bother finding a team to tease it with. So "paying" -240 on what should be a -215 bet isn't going to pad the bankroll anytime soon.

2. Teasing a -13.5 down to -7.5 team? C'mon. Tons of places have good odds on 7 point teasers at -115 out there, how can you not use the 7 point teaser (still a crappy play) and get this sucker down to -6.5. If anyone I know told me they teased Indy (of about 20 guys I know) I'd lay 30-1 they won that leg, I cannot believe anyone out there who was serious about winning has a -7.5 ticket.

:monsters-

Sorry for the rant job. Calm down Fez. Time to jump in my Chevy and play some Boss tunes.

Illini · Sep 27, 2005

No Porsche, bro? :toast:

drunkguy · Sep 27, 2005

Fez, haven't you learned yet that this is futile?

some people refuse to learn, and keep making the same mistakes over and over again

you shouldn't complain though, it takes a lot of bad players to keep the books open for the sharp players

winkyduck · Sep 27, 2005

this is no shock to me at all

how many idiots here post CFB teasers saying what great results they have yet these mental midgets fail to realize if they made straight parlay bets they would have cashed that instead - winning 2.6 units instead of 1.0

the saying, "The masses is asses" DEFINITELY applies to sports bettors

ronaldn · Sep 27, 2005

Fezzik said:
1. Teasing a -5.5 or -6 point favorite is quite possibly the worst play a player can possibly make. The reason is that even at favorable odds (2 teamer, 6 point teaser at -100) Each leg of a teaser is basically a -240 bet. So for example you bet $240 on a 2 team teaser. You basically are bettting 240 to make 100 on leg 1, and if it wins it rolls over to a 340 to make 140 on leg 2.

Can you explain further please. I am not doubting you but just wondering how to arrive at these figures. Just trying to learn. Thx!

Fezzik · Sep 27, 2005

The -240 math.........

If you bet $240 on a 2 team NFL teaser, at -100 odds you will get back 480.

What is really happening is you are parlaying two -240 bets which when coupled together double you up:

Bet $240 at minus $2.40 and if you win the 1st leg of your teaser you "win" $100 and now have $340. The squares will argue this is a 2 team parlay type bet and you have not won anything yet, and you now have 1 game left at even money odds. They are wrong. What you have is a Ticket that is now worth $340 and you are committed to laying -140 with this $340, with the additional win being $141.66 (340/2.40). So if you win leg2 your ticket is worth $340 plus 141.66= 481.66. You get paid only $480, the minus -240 number was rounded a bit.

Squares LOVE to parlay huge ML bets and argue that they aren't really laying those huge numbers. They are wrong. They most certainly are laying those huge prices on each and every game.

The good news in NFL teasers is that -240 bets can be bargains if given the right extra 6 points thrown in (Eagles from -7.5 down to -1.5 qualified last week).

The bottom line is that I've worked on betting teams in the past. If I showed my guys a -6 team teased on a ticket even for a minimum amount they might go ballistic. It is the equivalent of a 21 player standing on A5. NO WAY, this mistake can be an isolated instance. It is such an egregious mistake, it exposes the bettor to be a complete and total square. Caveat: 95% of bettors are complete and total squares. A better play would be to let your cat pick your bet for you. She will hit only lose at a 4.54% clip................yet the average bettor in Vegas loses at a -7% clip. Why? They make horrible, horrible bets like Vikings -6 teasers, and Indy -7.5 teasers. And then blame losses on bad luck. The truth is the luckiest bettor in the world would lose chucking up garbage like those plays............

royalfan · Sep 27, 2005

Fezzik said:
Teasers in the NFL are readily beatable. However, bettors get buried by them, no surprise there, including experienced "knowledgable" guys.

I've read so far that one author got crushed when the Vikings teaser from -6 to pk'm lost week1, and now someone managed to lose with Indy -13.5 down to -7.5 this week. And these losses are attributed to bad luck. Bad luck??? Fire up the coffee pot, it is time for intervention people. Why not just donate the money to Hurricane Relief?

1. Teasing a -5.5 or -6 point favorite is quite possibly the worst play a player can possibly make. The reason is that even at favorable odds (2 teamer, 6 point teaser at -100) Each leg of a teaser is basically a -240 bet. So for example you bet $240 on a 2 team teaser. You basically are bettting 240 to make 100 on leg 1, and if it wins it rolls over to a 340 to make 140 on leg 2.
Anways, one can get a ML on such a favorite at -215 or so AND you don't have to bother finding a team to tease it with. So "paying" -240 on what should be a -215 bet isn't going to pad the bankroll anytime soon.

2. Teasing a -13.5 down to -7.5 team? C'mon. Tons of places have good odds on 7 point teasers at -115 out there, how can you not use the 7 point teaser (still a crappy play) and get this sucker down to -6.5. If anyone I know told me they teased Indy (of about 20 guys I know) I'd lay 30-1 they won that leg, I cannot believe anyone out there who was serious about winning has a -7.5 ticket.

:monsters-

Sorry for the rant job. Calm down Fez. Time to jump in my Chevy and play some Boss tunes.

This would make a hell of a lot more sense if you could explain where one can find a 6 or 6 1/2 point favorite at -215. Of course you cannot, so although I agree it isn't a wise play anyway, it is not near as dumb as you are making it out to be.

quantumleap · Sep 27, 2005

So have you bought yourself a good pair of shoes yet?

:lolBIG:

Just giving you a hard time over that tout that said you weren't any good just by looking at your shoes.

Fezzik said:
Teasers in the NFL are readily beatable. However, bettors get buried by them, no surprise there, including experienced "knowledgable" guys.

I've read so far that one author got crushed when the Vikings teaser from -6 to pk'm lost week1, and now someone managed to lose with Indy -13.5 down to -7.5 this week. And these losses are attributed to bad luck. Bad luck??? Fire up the coffee pot, it is time for intervention people. Why not just donate the money to Hurricane Relief?

1. Teasing a -5.5 or -6 point favorite is quite possibly the worst play a player can possibly make. The reason is that even at favorable odds (2 teamer, 6 point teaser at -100) Each leg of a teaser is basically a -240 bet. So for example you bet $240 on a 2 team teaser. You basically are bettting 240 to make 100 on leg 1, and if it wins it rolls over to a 340 to make 140 on leg 2.
Anways, one can get a ML on such a favorite at -215 or so AND you don't have to bother finding a team to tease it with. So "paying" -240 on what should be a -215 bet isn't going to pad the bankroll anytime soon.

2. Teasing a -13.5 down to -7.5 team? C'mon. Tons of places have good odds on 7 point teasers at -115 out there, how can you not use the 7 point teaser (still a crappy play) and get this sucker down to -6.5. If anyone I know told me they teased Indy (of about 20 guys I know) I'd lay 30-1 they won that leg, I cannot believe anyone out there who was serious about winning has a -7.5 ticket.

:monsters-

Sorry for the rant job. Calm down Fez. Time to jump in my Chevy and play some Boss tunes.

ronaldn · Sep 27, 2005

Fezzik said:
If you bet $240 on a 2 team NFL teaser, at -100 odds you will get back 480.

What is really happening is you are parlaying two -240 bets which when coupled together double you up:

Bet $240 at minus $2.40 and if you win the 1st leg of your teaser you "win" $100 and now have $340. The squares will argue this is a 2 team parlay type bet and you have not won anything yet, and you now have 1 game left at even money odds. They are wrong. What you have is a Ticket that is now worth $340 and you are committed to laying -140 with this $340, with the additional win being $141.66 (340/2.40). So if you win leg2 your ticket is worth $340 plus 141.66= 481.66. You get paid only $480, the minus -240 number was rounded a bit.

Squares LOVE to parlay huge ML bets and argue that they aren't really laying those huge numbers. They are wrong. They most certainly are laying those huge prices on each and every game.

The good news in NFL teasers is that -240 bets can be bargains if given the right extra 6 points thrown in (Eagles from -7.5 down to -1.5 qualified last week).

The bottom line is that I've worked on betting teams in the past. If I showed my guys a -6 team teased on a ticket even for a minimum amount they might go ballistic. It is the equivalent of a 21 player standing on A5. NO WAY, this mistake can be an isolated instance. It is such an egregious mistake, it exposes the bettor to be a complete and total square. Caveat: 95% of bettors are complete and total squares. A better play would be to let your cat pick your bet for you. She will hit only lose at a 4.54% clip................yet the average bettor in Vegas loses at a -7% clip. Why? They make horrible, horrible bets like Vikings -6 teasers, and Indy -7.5 teasers. And then blame losses on bad luck. The truth is the luckiest bettor in the world would lose chucking up garbage like those plays............

What is really happening is you are parlaying two -240 bets
What I cant figure out is where you come up with this -240 figure. I think if you are making a strait bet and being given an extra 6 pts that your expected value would be plus and not negative. What makes one leg of a teaser a -240 bet. I see your reasoning if I accept that proposition of -240 but dont know how you arrived at that figure.

wantitall4moi · Sep 27, 2005

Ummm...

Usually a -5.5 fave is going to run you -230/-250, and a -6 fave can run you -245-275. I doubt very highly you wil be finding many -6 faves at -240, MAYBE on the road, but even then they are generally 245/250. Even at Pinnacle, and I do believe Pinnacle doesn't keep those nice odds in parlays. I am not sure, as I do not play parlays, but from what I have heard their odds suck on them.

But other than that what you say is Ok.

ronaldn · Sep 27, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Ummm...

Usually a -5.5 fave is going to run you -230/-250, and a -6 fave can run you -245-275. I doubt very highly you wil be finding many -6 faves at -240, MAYBE on the road, but even then they are generally 245/250. Even at Pinnacle, and I do believe Pinnacle doesn't keep those nice odds in parlays. I am not sure, as I do not play parlays, but from what I have heard their odds suck on them.

But other than that what you say is Ok.

OK, I see now where the -240 is coming from. Thx

Fezzik · Sep 27, 2005

Vikings were a -5.5 to -6 point favorite, -215 ML most of the week, week 1

To draw an analogy, NE is -5 spread, -214 ML right now vs. SD.

I'm sure it will close 5.5 to 6, and I'm sure guys will be teasing them down to pk'm as well.

Illini · Sep 27, 2005

Fezzik, do you only tease 7-10 point home favorites down, or are there other profitable situations? Thanks.

wantitall4moi · Sep 27, 2005

I can give you the 5/5.5s. But when you start looking for line moves and getting in on a "better" number that is getting a lot more complicated.

I am no big teaser OR parlay guy, but that is why people bet them ,THEY ARE SIMPLE. Guys that bet them are not worrying themselvs with payoffs and probabilities, they want to get that 6 pt fave down to a pick, and that is it. Or that -7 fave down to a simple winner (ties push teasers)

royalfan · Sep 27, 2005

Fezzik said:
To draw an analogy, NE is -5 spread, -214 ML right now vs. SD.

I'm sure it will close 5.5 to 6, and I'm sure guys will be teasing them down to pk'm as well.

Huge difference between 5 points where you can get the -215 you referred to and 6 or 6 1/2 points where you can tease it to a pick and you cannot get even -240. So are you saying teasing games down to pick is a good idea off 6 and 6 1/2 rather than playing money lines? That is what your math seems to be saying but it badly contradicts what you said to do.

Arodd · Sep 27, 2005

You said people would tease the NE line down to pick em. Do you view this as a bad play then? just curious.

Fezzik · Sep 27, 2005

6 point Basic Teaser Strategy on favorites:

-1 to -3 up: Bad teasers.
-3.5, -4, -4.5, -5, -5.5: Horrific
-6: Bad
-6.5: questionable, but might work
-7: Typically solid
-7.5, -8, -8.5: STRIKE!
-9,-9.5: No good, use 7 point teasers, STRIKE!
-10: No good.

Obviously, when comparing any -5.5 chalk you like to -6.5 chalk you also like, the -6.5 chalk is a far superior play as a tease, since post tease using 6 points, you are getting identical pk'm lines.

BAGIANT · Sep 27, 2005

Actually if you found a book that would let you buy a half twelve times, you would have a -230 bet. -110 + -120 buys=-230.

scottw · Sep 27, 2005

Hey Fez, could you give us the same type of chart for 6 point teasing of DOGGIES??? Thanks.

royalfan · Sep 28, 2005

Fezzik said:
-1 to -3 up: Bad teasers.
-3.5, -4, -4.5, -5, -5.5: Horrific
-6: Bad
-6.5: questionable, but might work
-7: Typically solid
-7.5, -8, -8.5: STRIKE!
-9,-9.5: No good, use 7 point teasers, STRIKE!
-10: No good.

Obviously, when comparing any -5.5 chalk you like to -6.5 chalk you also like, the -6.5 chalk is a far superior play as a tease, since post tease using 6 points, you are getting identical pk'm lines.

Thanks for clarifying. Makes much more sense than what you inferred previously. The only disagreement I would possibly have is that 6 would be more of a neutral situation or as you put it "questionable, but might work" as that is where you get to the -240 mark. Not much of a teaser player anyhow though. Play a very occasional 4 team 13 pointer at mill is about it.