There is not a trend bet in football that will make you money. This is why I dont believe in systems. You have to take every game individually in order to have success. About the only good trend bet around is fadeing the public. But you better have great info.
ML Home Dogs
God info & GREAT pic.Do you happen to have data on Home Dogs that win outright ? This info & even more broken down data like Home ML Dogs playing their 2nd home game in a row win outright ____% of the time,Home ML Dogs that win outright after midway in the season, &\or Home ML Dogs getting 3 points or less,7 points or less & above 7 point dogs win outright ____% of the time could be very valuable if taken over a large enough database .Not looking for system type plays but this info could open my eyes that some types of plays are unprofitable over the long haul or maybe deserve a 2nd look .Any info sharing on this type of data will be appreciated .
The_Man said:
God info & GREAT pic.Do you happen to have data on Home Dogs that win outright ? This info & even more broken down data like Home ML Dogs playing their 2nd home game in a row win outright ____% of the time,Home ML Dogs that win outright after midway in the season, &\or Home ML Dogs getting 3 points or less,7 points or less & above 7 point dogs win outright ____% of the time could be very valuable if taken over a large enough database .Not looking for system type plays but this info could open my eyes that some types of plays are unprofitable over the long haul or maybe deserve a 2nd look .Any info sharing on this type of data will be appreciated .
Fishhead said:
Heard good things about book by several knowledgable people in past. But wasn't this book published in 1998 so the 2 point conversion in the NFL is not really reflected correctly in Mr. Wong's statistical data. Not knocking book but just think 2 point conversion will change the data some. Anyone disagree ? All input is welcome. GL
Book is overrated. Was writen 6-7 years ago. The guy knows his math, but he is a BJ player, and that kind of logical mathematical thinking DOES NOT carry over into sports betting.
Sure you can figure what you need to break even, and what your are paying in vig at certain holds, and what sort of advantgae you may have on a scalp you see, but if you can't do it yourself Pinnacle has a caculator to show you.
Being able to do math and ferretout "value" also doesn't mean you will be succesful, you still have to pick enough winners to overcome all thelosers. With great math and decent money managemnet you might survive longer than most, but it in no way gurantees success.
But he also figured that out since he stopped selling his own picks a long time ago, and now lives off that one book, and the money he charges people to access his site that are enamoured with it (the book)
Future probabilities CANNOT be determined by past results, especially in sports betting. With cards and dice it can't either, but at least you have a finite number of possibilities, and thus can put odds on it. But just because you can put odds on it, still doesn't make it successful.
You can't look at a number or a spread and say that the numbers you have wil continue to hold true. Because every new game that is played effect the results/data. Not every hand of cards dealt changes the results you used to figure out your odds, but in sports it does.
Sure you can figure what you need to break even, and what your are paying in vig at certain holds, and what sort of advantgae you may have on a scalp you see, but if you can't do it yourself Pinnacle has a caculator to show you.
Being able to do math and ferretout "value" also doesn't mean you will be succesful, you still have to pick enough winners to overcome all thelosers. With great math and decent money managemnet you might survive longer than most, but it in no way gurantees success.
But he also figured that out since he stopped selling his own picks a long time ago, and now lives off that one book, and the money he charges people to access his site that are enamoured with it (the book)
Future probabilities CANNOT be determined by past results, especially in sports betting. With cards and dice it can't either, but at least you have a finite number of possibilities, and thus can put odds on it. But just because you can put odds on it, still doesn't make it successful.
You can't look at a number or a spread and say that the numbers you have wil continue to hold true. Because every new game that is played effect the results/data. Not every hand of cards dealt changes the results you used to figure out your odds, but in sports it does.
If one truly doesn't recognize the value of historical data when handicapping current games, then Wong's book is not for you. For the rest of us, including all professional gamblers out there, Wong's book is very insightful, and I often refer to the charts included in the book when trying to determine whether or not to buy a half of point...etc
