Vegasvice said:
Interesting ? & a topic that is very rarely commented on.Would like to hear Mr.Fezzik (anyone with math background really) comment on the probibilities & %s that would make certain situations & odds more appeasing to the player. Basing it solely on probibilities & math data.
Is their certain situations ( not based solely on probibilities\%s ) that are better 4 the player & What shops would people recommend 4 getting the best #s on the live betting ?Some shops seem to overreact when a score is made early in the game which allows the player to get some enticing #s.All input is appreciated.
I would have thought that this topic would generate more interest from some of the offshore bookmakers that frequent this site. The concept of in game live betting is great but those of us who want to try it need to educate ourselves on how "the game is played". Pinnacle seems to have the most friendly interface and reasonable spreads. Cmon bookmakers, lets explore this topic.
The reason your not getting much response is you've asked a question where someone needs to actually know something about bookmaking, instead of the normal pricing up a 2 horse race, which seems to make everyone on here a bookmaking expert.
In-running betting has been going for a few years now initially started by Betfair, the other books fell in line due to competition. There is no reason why any sport cant be price computerised before the start and trigger on scoring, position etc, baseball and cricket would be examples of that. However sports like soccer move fast and set pieces have to be taken into account by a person making a judgement, there is also the problems with injuries and momentum, basically anything which the bettor will take into account.
As for all 2 horse races, any prices are governed by the M/L although Americans seem to prefer to work from the spread. There are pre-determined prices for all scores but the book has to try balancing at all times so figures are not exact. Because of this I dont want to get bogged down by static figures but an example of how I would price them is,
M/L NEW ORLEANS -110 BUFFALO -110
-150 is a keen price for a T/D, -25 per point, so either team scoring would make it -260, +240, however, alot would depend on the strength of the market and books will put -200 on a T/D if allowed. Considering that a drive results in a punt or T/O more than 50% of the time, layers might leave a price up regardless of field position shaving slightly less off . Prices from -15 to -25 covers change of possession, but anything that complicates the situation like time left and a team in front but not in possession makes it an individual call, what looks a good price one second can look desperate the next.
I know from playing in-running that the bettor is at a big disadvantage because the book only has to know they are on the right side of the price, where the bettor has to constantly evaluate whether he should take it. Prices can only truelly be measured when there is a stop, such as H/T etc, when they usually even out across the board.
In-running betting has been going for a few years now initially started by Betfair, the other books fell in line due to competition. There is no reason why any sport cant be price computerised before the start and trigger on scoring, position etc, baseball and cricket would be examples of that. However sports like soccer move fast and set pieces have to be taken into account by a person making a judgement, there is also the problems with injuries and momentum, basically anything which the bettor will take into account.
As for all 2 horse races, any prices are governed by the M/L although Americans seem to prefer to work from the spread. There are pre-determined prices for all scores but the book has to try balancing at all times so figures are not exact. Because of this I dont want to get bogged down by static figures but an example of how I would price them is,
M/L NEW ORLEANS -110 BUFFALO -110
-150 is a keen price for a T/D, -25 per point, so either team scoring would make it -260, +240, however, alot would depend on the strength of the market and books will put -200 on a T/D if allowed. Considering that a drive results in a punt or T/O more than 50% of the time, layers might leave a price up regardless of field position shaving slightly less off . Prices from -15 to -25 covers change of possession, but anything that complicates the situation like time left and a team in front but not in possession makes it an individual call, what looks a good price one second can look desperate the next.
I know from playing in-running that the bettor is at a big disadvantage because the book only has to know they are on the right side of the price, where the bettor has to constantly evaluate whether he should take it. Prices can only truelly be measured when there is a stop, such as H/T etc, when they usually even out across the board.
Vegasvice,
We have been doing live betting for over 9 years. All of our markets
are made by humans. During the course of a game, I am sure we make
some very questionable lines. We have many sharp players who jump on them.
Over all, we hold less than one percent on our live betting. I think everyone should seriously look into this exciting and profitable form og gambling. If you
have any more questions, feel free to call.
We have been doing live betting for over 9 years. All of our markets
are made by humans. During the course of a game, I am sure we make
some very questionable lines. We have many sharp players who jump on them.
Over all, we hold less than one percent on our live betting. I think everyone should seriously look into this exciting and profitable form og gambling. If you
have any more questions, feel free to call.
