How big of a favorite will STL be against HOU/ATL

BROMOx · Oct 3, 2005

OK, so I am looking at playing STL at 5Dimes to win the NL pennant at +105. I think they EASILY dismantle SD in the opening series (favored -343 at Pinny).

Let's make the mistake and assume the first series is no problem. I am wondering what you all think the series price might be against Atl or Hou. They will have home adv. and should be a decent favorite. (-175/-155?)

I could buy back then for a guaranteed profit as long as they whip up on San Diego. Where's the error in my logic here?

D2bets · Oct 3, 2005

BROMOx said:
OK, so I am looking at playing STL at 5Dimes to win the NL pennant at +105. I think they EASILY dismantle SD in the opening series (favored -343 at Pinny).

Let's make the mistake and assume the first series is no problem. I am wondering what you all think the series price might be against Atl or Hou. They will have home adv. and should be a decent favorite. (-175/-155?)

I could buy back then for a guaranteed profit as long as they whip up on San Diego. Where's the error in my logic here?

Yeah, -175 or -180 or thereabouts sounds about right. But if the first series is "no problem" and easy then why not just bet it hard and not worry about the next series?

Horseshoe · Oct 3, 2005

I think St.Louis is gonna have their pants pulled down during the WS again..if they get there at all.

lostitall · Oct 3, 2005

This sounds like a good way to win a little or lose A LOT. Anything can happen in any 5 game baseball series, and 2 doses of Peavy makes SD's .500 record a lot less relevant.You'll probably dodge the bullet with this strategy, but I'm pretty sure it's -EV

How big of a favorite will STL be against HOU/ATL

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