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San Diego/St Louis - Overall winner, Cardinals. Grudgingly I will take them to win this series but the way it stands now I probably will not make a wager on them. In fact game 1 and game 2 I already know I will take the Padres and the + money, I feel confident I will at least win one or the other to grind out a little something on these first two games. No way there is any value laying 200 or so on the Cardinals in either one of these games IMO.
Game 1 we get the Padres ace in Peavy. Though he has no decision this year he was very effective in his start against the Cardinals, just got no run support. Which by the way is what I fear today. He went 8 solid innings, struck out 10 and gave up 1 earned run. No fluke, in his career his ERA is 2.38 against them, no reason to believe he won't keep his boys in the game.
On the flip side Carpenter has had it in cruise control coming down the stretch. Yeah I know they had it clinched but I don't like laying big numbers on a pitcher in hopes he can turn it back on. In his last 3 starts the Cards are 0-3 as a team and his ERA is a whooping 10.57! Throw this in with the fact he went on the DL last year when the playoffs came around with some sort of nerve condition (?) and I think San Diego is a great play. Last I saw it was +182 at Hollywood, might get a little more if you wait. Won't go into it much now but game 2 starter in Mulder has not done much of late either. While STL was cruising the Padres were playing their ass off just to get in, sometimes the mind wants to turn it back on but it takes a couple of games to actually do it. Either way taking STL to win but this series could be much more interesting than people realize. I like the fact Rolen is not playing but one concern today is Pujols used to own Peavy, always dangerous when you play a team that has trouble scoring runs. Smallish lean on the over in game 1 as well.
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Boston/CWS - Overall winner, CWS. Already played them in game 1, think they win today and take the series. More on this series later but I really like the way the pitching match-ups are going to come down for the Sox. Boston and that bullpen is just a nightmare waiting to happen, champs are never as hungry the year after either, someone else steps up this year IMO. More later.
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NYY/LAA - Oveall winner, Yankees. The trendy pick is Anahiem and I can see why. They are just a solid team, they do everything well. In fact I am not touching this game today either way. Doubt I will touch game two either, where I really like the Yanks are game 3 and 4. They should throw Johnson and Chacon in those two games against Byrd and Washburn, I expect them to win both. Probably a split in Anahiem but Yanks will sweep them at home on the way to winning this series. This is both a playoff savvy team with tons of post season experience and a hungry team, very dangerous combination. More later on the Yanks.
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Atlanta/Houston - overall winner, Houston. This was the closest of all the series to call in my opinion. I like Houston and already bet them to win game 1, going to be tough to go against Clemens in game two as well. Astros are having problems scoring runs but their big 3 in the circle makes this a very dangerous team. You are looking at Pettite, Clemens and Oswalt - good luck. Atlanta struggles out in the pen and you can all but count on Cox to give at least one game away somewhere, Astros should advance.
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I will update and add plays as the series goes on if I remember. As games are played a lot of things change so this is just an overview of what I am seeing at this moment, things will change as the games are played. For today my card is:
SD +182
CWS -105
Houston +103
San Diego/St Louis - Overall winner, Cardinals. Grudgingly I will take them to win this series but the way it stands now I probably will not make a wager on them. In fact game 1 and game 2 I already know I will take the Padres and the + money, I feel confident I will at least win one or the other to grind out a little something on these first two games. No way there is any value laying 200 or so on the Cardinals in either one of these games IMO.
Game 1 we get the Padres ace in Peavy. Though he has no decision this year he was very effective in his start against the Cardinals, just got no run support. Which by the way is what I fear today. He went 8 solid innings, struck out 10 and gave up 1 earned run. No fluke, in his career his ERA is 2.38 against them, no reason to believe he won't keep his boys in the game.
On the flip side Carpenter has had it in cruise control coming down the stretch. Yeah I know they had it clinched but I don't like laying big numbers on a pitcher in hopes he can turn it back on. In his last 3 starts the Cards are 0-3 as a team and his ERA is a whooping 10.57! Throw this in with the fact he went on the DL last year when the playoffs came around with some sort of nerve condition (?) and I think San Diego is a great play. Last I saw it was +182 at Hollywood, might get a little more if you wait. Won't go into it much now but game 2 starter in Mulder has not done much of late either. While STL was cruising the Padres were playing their ass off just to get in, sometimes the mind wants to turn it back on but it takes a couple of games to actually do it. Either way taking STL to win but this series could be much more interesting than people realize. I like the fact Rolen is not playing but one concern today is Pujols used to own Peavy, always dangerous when you play a team that has trouble scoring runs. Smallish lean on the over in game 1 as well.
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Boston/CWS - Overall winner, CWS. Already played them in game 1, think they win today and take the series. More on this series later but I really like the way the pitching match-ups are going to come down for the Sox. Boston and that bullpen is just a nightmare waiting to happen, champs are never as hungry the year after either, someone else steps up this year IMO. More later.
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NYY/LAA - Oveall winner, Yankees. The trendy pick is Anahiem and I can see why. They are just a solid team, they do everything well. In fact I am not touching this game today either way. Doubt I will touch game two either, where I really like the Yanks are game 3 and 4. They should throw Johnson and Chacon in those two games against Byrd and Washburn, I expect them to win both. Probably a split in Anahiem but Yanks will sweep them at home on the way to winning this series. This is both a playoff savvy team with tons of post season experience and a hungry team, very dangerous combination. More later on the Yanks.
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Atlanta/Houston - overall winner, Houston. This was the closest of all the series to call in my opinion. I like Houston and already bet them to win game 1, going to be tough to go against Clemens in game two as well. Astros are having problems scoring runs but their big 3 in the circle makes this a very dangerous team. You are looking at Pettite, Clemens and Oswalt - good luck. Atlanta struggles out in the pen and you can all but count on Cox to give at least one game away somewhere, Astros should advance.
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I will update and add plays as the series goes on if I remember. As games are played a lot of things change so this is just an overview of what I am seeing at this moment, things will change as the games are played. For today my card is:
SD +182
CWS -105
Houston +103
) Pretty solid lean on CWS again today but going to hold off, just a hunch but Wells going to be very tough today. On Thursday I know I am going to take SD again, hopefully everyone else gets off them now so I can cash a ticket. Just a gut feeling but I really felt they would steal one in St Louis, Astacio can beat Mulder, for the +220 or more we might get I think it's a better play then it was today. Also more than likely going to play Houston again in game 2, will wait and see what happens today but that is the play or I am off the game tomorrow. 
