He used to write here...anyway good read.
Low totals, short spreads mark Week 5 By Stephen Nover
October 3, 2005
You’d think it were late November or December judging by all these low Week 5 NFL totals. There are six games with over/unders at 38 or lower, four with totals under 35.
That’s not the only unusual thing about this week’s NFL lines. As of Monday afternoon, there were only two games where the favorite is laying more than three points.
“That’s a recipe for a parlay card disaster for bookmakers,” said Cesar Robaina, an oddsmaking consultant for Caliente sportsbooks in Mexico and former odds manager of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The lowest totals are the Buccaneers-Jets at 32 and Dolphins-Bills at 33. Just imagine if the warm-weather Bucs and Dolphins drew these road matchups when the weather was cold.
“You’d be seeing totals under 30 then,” Robaina said.
Just how low can you make an over/under?
“There is only so low you can go because of turnovers,” Robaina said. “Just by accident a team should score 14. So 28 is about as low as you get, even if the weather is bad.”
Other low total games involve the Ravens-Lions at 33 ½, Redskins-Broncos at 34 ½ and Bears-Browns at 35. The common denominator to these low totals is at least one team in the matchup has a bad quarterback.
“There is definitely some horrendous quarterback play,” Robaina said.
There is a real talent shortage at quarterback when teams start Brooks Bollinger, a not-ready-for-prime-time J.P. Losman, Joey “Dink-and-Dunk” Harrington, an over-the-hill Mark Brunell, Anthony Wright and rookie Kyle Orton.
Things are pretty bad when Trent Dilfer and Gus Frerotte now rate as middle-of-the-road quarterbacks.
Let the tanking begin to see who wins the Matt Leinart sweepstakes.
“No, not in recent memory,” Robaina said when asked if he had seen quarterback play this bad in the NFL.
Normally totals would be higher, but this week some of the more offensively-challenged teams drew each other.
“It’s just the way the matchups fell,” Robaina said about all the low totals.
The Jets should start doing better once Vinny Testaverde gets the rust off. Brunell actually has made plays this season. It’s way too early to call Orton and Losman busts, although the Bills would be much better served if they sat Losman for veteran Kelly Holcomb.
Harrington looks like a helpless cause. But his offensive line hasn’t always protected him and his young wide receivers may turn out to be overrated. Wright is nothing more than a journeyman-type backup, although an upgrade on injured Kyle Boller.
I’m surprised the Lions are favored against the Ravens. Yes, the Lions are home. But Jeff Garcia is still a few weeks away from playing. That means another week of Harrington.
“At least the Ravens have an identity with their defense,” said Robaina, who made the Ravens slight favorites. “Harrington has yet to show something.”
Robaina said the three toughest lines he had to make on the NFL this week were on the Colts-49ers, Bengals-Jaguars and the Monday night game of the Steelers against the Chargers.
A couple of Internet books opened Indy minus 11 ½ Sunday afternoon before the 49ers-Cardinals game kicked off. Following the 49ers’ wretched performance, the line came back up with the Colts favored by 13. By Monday afternoon it was a consensus Colts minus 14. The Stardust even had the Colts at 14 ½.
Robaina initially was going to make the game as low as Colts minus 10 ½ considering the 49ers have played well at home and the game is on grass. But after watching the 49ers get blown out in Mexico City, he raised it to 12.
He made the Jaguars minus two at home hosting the Bengals in the Sunday night game. That line is either 2 ½ or three. It’s the undefeated Bengals first real road test. The Jaguars just played one of their all-time worst games. Linesmakers believe the Jaguars will bounce back. Jacksonville has been up-and-down this season. Oddsmakers are not convinced the Bengals are totally for real, either.
The Chargers are three-point home favorites hosting the Steelers next Monday, following their blowout victories against the Giants and Patriots.
“That was a tough one to make a number on,” Robaina said. “The Steelers are off a bye and figure to run the ball.”
Because the Chargers figure to run the ball, too, Robaina recommended 41 for the total. However, the over/under is at 44 ½.
“I think that total is too high,” Robaina said.
Low totals, short spreads mark Week 5 By Stephen Nover
October 3, 2005
You’d think it were late November or December judging by all these low Week 5 NFL totals. There are six games with over/unders at 38 or lower, four with totals under 35.
That’s not the only unusual thing about this week’s NFL lines. As of Monday afternoon, there were only two games where the favorite is laying more than three points.
“That’s a recipe for a parlay card disaster for bookmakers,” said Cesar Robaina, an oddsmaking consultant for Caliente sportsbooks in Mexico and former odds manager of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The lowest totals are the Buccaneers-Jets at 32 and Dolphins-Bills at 33. Just imagine if the warm-weather Bucs and Dolphins drew these road matchups when the weather was cold.
“You’d be seeing totals under 30 then,” Robaina said.
Just how low can you make an over/under?
“There is only so low you can go because of turnovers,” Robaina said. “Just by accident a team should score 14. So 28 is about as low as you get, even if the weather is bad.”
Other low total games involve the Ravens-Lions at 33 ½, Redskins-Broncos at 34 ½ and Bears-Browns at 35. The common denominator to these low totals is at least one team in the matchup has a bad quarterback.
“There is definitely some horrendous quarterback play,” Robaina said.
There is a real talent shortage at quarterback when teams start Brooks Bollinger, a not-ready-for-prime-time J.P. Losman, Joey “Dink-and-Dunk” Harrington, an over-the-hill Mark Brunell, Anthony Wright and rookie Kyle Orton.
Things are pretty bad when Trent Dilfer and Gus Frerotte now rate as middle-of-the-road quarterbacks.
Let the tanking begin to see who wins the Matt Leinart sweepstakes.
“No, not in recent memory,” Robaina said when asked if he had seen quarterback play this bad in the NFL.
Normally totals would be higher, but this week some of the more offensively-challenged teams drew each other.
“It’s just the way the matchups fell,” Robaina said about all the low totals.
The Jets should start doing better once Vinny Testaverde gets the rust off. Brunell actually has made plays this season. It’s way too early to call Orton and Losman busts, although the Bills would be much better served if they sat Losman for veteran Kelly Holcomb.
Harrington looks like a helpless cause. But his offensive line hasn’t always protected him and his young wide receivers may turn out to be overrated. Wright is nothing more than a journeyman-type backup, although an upgrade on injured Kyle Boller.
I’m surprised the Lions are favored against the Ravens. Yes, the Lions are home. But Jeff Garcia is still a few weeks away from playing. That means another week of Harrington.
“At least the Ravens have an identity with their defense,” said Robaina, who made the Ravens slight favorites. “Harrington has yet to show something.”
Robaina said the three toughest lines he had to make on the NFL this week were on the Colts-49ers, Bengals-Jaguars and the Monday night game of the Steelers against the Chargers.
A couple of Internet books opened Indy minus 11 ½ Sunday afternoon before the 49ers-Cardinals game kicked off. Following the 49ers’ wretched performance, the line came back up with the Colts favored by 13. By Monday afternoon it was a consensus Colts minus 14. The Stardust even had the Colts at 14 ½.
Robaina initially was going to make the game as low as Colts minus 10 ½ considering the 49ers have played well at home and the game is on grass. But after watching the 49ers get blown out in Mexico City, he raised it to 12.
He made the Jaguars minus two at home hosting the Bengals in the Sunday night game. That line is either 2 ½ or three. It’s the undefeated Bengals first real road test. The Jaguars just played one of their all-time worst games. Linesmakers believe the Jaguars will bounce back. Jacksonville has been up-and-down this season. Oddsmakers are not convinced the Bengals are totally for real, either.
The Chargers are three-point home favorites hosting the Steelers next Monday, following their blowout victories against the Giants and Patriots.
“That was a tough one to make a number on,” Robaina said. “The Steelers are off a bye and figure to run the ball.”
Because the Chargers figure to run the ball, too, Robaina recommended 41 for the total. However, the over/under is at 44 ½.
“I think that total is too high,” Robaina said.
