I had a little time so I thought I would share some thoughts on today's game. Obviously, at -260, the Padres are a real long shot. However, I am playing them (as I posted in my thread) both ML & RL and not just because of the obvious value the odds present, but because I think there is a rational case to be made for them.
Pedro Astacio has pitched excellent for 2 months(7 consecutive starts) allowing no more than 2 ER and pitching at least 6 innings in each game. He has only allowed 2 HR in his last 45 innings. He has allowed two walks or less per start in his last 6 outings and 3 walks in the first of these 7 consecutive starts. The Padres have won 6 of 7 of these starts. Has he faced the St. Louis lineup during that stretch...no. But I actually like that he has not. The St. Louis lineup has not seen Astacio for a long time and when they did he wasn't in the current form he is now. He may be able to get through the lineup once or twice relatively clean until the Cards excellent lineup starts getting comfortable with his release point, velocity, tendencies, etc. Astacio has performed better during the day than at night in 2005 also (3.25 ERA overall). Pujols and Walker have nice numbers versus Astacio but like I mentioned before, Astacio was not pitching like he is now.
Mulder has had a very good second half as well. However, he can lose his control at times as evidenced by the 7 walks in his last start. Walks will kill you this time of year. Mulder has a 6.86 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and .350 BAA during the day this season. SD's lineup fared well versus Mulder earlier this season notching 9 hits and 3 walks in 5 2/3 IP. Mulder should have a difficult time with at least 5 hitters in the SD lineup: Young: 7-18 vs MULD, ,318 BA & .423 OBP vs L; Loretta: 3-5 vs MULD, .309 BA & .426 OBP vs L; Randa: 15-40, 2 HR vs MULD, .368 BA, .390 OBP vs L; Giles: .289 BA, .403 OBP vs L; Nady: 3-3 vs MULD, .323 vs L, .400 OBP vs L.
Teams are hitting .209 versus SD bullpen L10 games so if it comes down to the bullpens, the advantage lies with SD here in my opinion.
I wrote this up not to influence anyone's decision because clearly the odds are St Louis takes this game. But since I had a little time today, I thought I'd cowboy up and provide some info & thoughts for the forum.
Good luck everyone.
B&G
Pedro Astacio has pitched excellent for 2 months(7 consecutive starts) allowing no more than 2 ER and pitching at least 6 innings in each game. He has only allowed 2 HR in his last 45 innings. He has allowed two walks or less per start in his last 6 outings and 3 walks in the first of these 7 consecutive starts. The Padres have won 6 of 7 of these starts. Has he faced the St. Louis lineup during that stretch...no. But I actually like that he has not. The St. Louis lineup has not seen Astacio for a long time and when they did he wasn't in the current form he is now. He may be able to get through the lineup once or twice relatively clean until the Cards excellent lineup starts getting comfortable with his release point, velocity, tendencies, etc. Astacio has performed better during the day than at night in 2005 also (3.25 ERA overall). Pujols and Walker have nice numbers versus Astacio but like I mentioned before, Astacio was not pitching like he is now.
Mulder has had a very good second half as well. However, he can lose his control at times as evidenced by the 7 walks in his last start. Walks will kill you this time of year. Mulder has a 6.86 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and .350 BAA during the day this season. SD's lineup fared well versus Mulder earlier this season notching 9 hits and 3 walks in 5 2/3 IP. Mulder should have a difficult time with at least 5 hitters in the SD lineup: Young: 7-18 vs MULD, ,318 BA & .423 OBP vs L; Loretta: 3-5 vs MULD, .309 BA & .426 OBP vs L; Randa: 15-40, 2 HR vs MULD, .368 BA, .390 OBP vs L; Giles: .289 BA, .403 OBP vs L; Nady: 3-3 vs MULD, .323 vs L, .400 OBP vs L.
Teams are hitting .209 versus SD bullpen L10 games so if it comes down to the bullpens, the advantage lies with SD here in my opinion.
I wrote this up not to influence anyone's decision because clearly the odds are St Louis takes this game. But since I had a little time today, I thought I'd cowboy up and provide some info & thoughts for the forum.
Good luck everyone.
B&G
