Do big bonuses matter if 95% of bettors lose?

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Just curious to hear your views on this matter.....

It seems like a lot of sportsbooks are offering large sign-up bonuses and re-up bonuses to attract business....

If what I hear is true about the percentage of gamblers who lose over the long run.....that about 95% of the gamblers lose.....if the books can weed out the sharps and pros who appear to be the only real threat and among the 5% of the people who can make money doing this....

Then are the sportsbooks really risking much by offering huge bonuses with multiple rollovers, knowing full well that probably whoever signs up will be leaving thier bankroll there and they won't have to pay out?
 

LA Clippers Junkie
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I don't believe the percentages are that high anymore online. It is a completely different industry in this day and age.

Even if 95% of actual players are losing over the long haul, that doesn't reflect the money being bet. I am sure a lot of the recreational small players lose. But the pro's betting big money erase about 100-200 losing recreational players.

A lot more information available these days online.

Also, squares and smaller players usually only have 1 or 2 outs. The sharps are often in numerous shops, and again, betting much larger amounts. A lot more "wise" action being bet these days than in the past.
 

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Clip Joint, I can tell you the Nevada sportsbooks report that 97% of all sport bettors lose in the their state. The sharpest of sharps are here or at least were here when that report came out three years ago. Now take the off-shore books like VIP/GameDaay that will toss you for winning, and that loser % goes to nearly 100%.

Any pro will tell you, that it is much harder to win today then it ever was back in the day.

The shit books can offer big bonuses because they have practically 100% loser clientele. You win, you're gone is their motto. I am surprised these books do not go to a nickel line since everyone loses. Its called greed. They are going to milk their losers for all its worth.
 

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Chuck Sims said:
The shit books can offer big bonuses because they have practically 100% loser clientele. You win, you're gone is their motto. I am surprised these books do not go to a nickel line since everyone loses. Its called greed. They are going to milk their losers for all its worth.

I agree on these infamous "shit books"...I was referring to real "sportsbooks" like Pinnacle, Olympic, etc.

Vegas has been scared to take a bet for quite a while...this is not the case in the real sportsbooks I mentioned above.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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CS, I doubt most of the sharpest sports players are in LV. Tough to get a big play down at most LV books without them acting like you have committed a crime for carrying a wad of cash into their parlor.
 

Rx. Senior
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I'm in Chuck Sims corner here, albeit from a British angle. I've said it before, and here it is again, I dont understand the Stateside mentality towards Books. Coming from a Country that never praises books and sees them the enemy at best, scum at worse, its always hard to see why posters applaud Off-shore books for giving mugs literally a square deal.

These guys are only interested in one thing, your cash, for as little trouble as possible and winning long term is a battle that makes Star Wars look redundant. This is the main reason I rant on here, posters talking crap about betting 5 figures at the best price as if its a walk in the park. I spent most of my adult life in the trough of chasing margins from sharps to dopes, live money to square money, guessing line moves, its all the same. At the end of the day I had to make a living and what mattered was profit, not going with the sharp or the inside edge, just what gave me more cash.

Things are harder nowadays, books have instant access to what was priviledged info years ago and a better system of knowing their liabilities. The Net has brought greenhorn punters directly in the grasp of touts and sharks, another reason for my rants. Personally I have got to the point where the time I give up is not worth the betting, NFL is the only sport I make money at on my own back, betting others opinions is another thread.

Anyways, best o luck the weekend:drink:
 

Rx. Senior
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Hey Woof,
I got to admit, that face grows on you after awhile, sort of cuddly, but no way you bet a game with a geezer like that calling the plays. Best of luck this weekend:103631605 Although I couldnt possibily say that that in the pick 4 thread.
 

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Great post winbet. I too am dumbfounded when posters give kudos to a book that gave them good cs. That same book that would boot you and stall pay you the second you start taking out more than you send them.

The real sportsbooks like Pinnacle and WSEX to name a few that understand the game should get kudos if only to show the way to the greenhorns that do not realize they are playing at a losers only phony book.
 

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I myself think that the bonuses mean absolutely nothing. If in fact 90-97% lose why would they even matter as the book wins it back in the first place.
Some defend the offshore industry as being the second comeing, but it has its good points and bad ones as well as most things in this world do.
These bonuses are aimed at the recreational player in the first place. Those are the kinds of players that ALL books want.
Now at CRIS they could care less about someone wining Every week as long as that player is laying 11-10. Boss told me that years ago in those Very words.
 

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I can see a number of you are thinking what I was thinking.....that most of the books could offer huge bonuses and get away with it....

Books don't lose until someone wins and cashes out.......how many bettors have enough discipline to wager responsibly and follow money management rules, shopping for best lines.....not chasing.....and how many run a balance up and then give it back without bringing any money home?

Reminds me of a philosophy that I read a long time ago about giving people a spot or offering a handicap to "balance" the skill level....say you were golfing or bowling or playing pool or something of that nature where two people were competing and one was given a spot:

The guy giving the spot still feels he can beat you with the handicap, otherwise he wouldn't offer it.....he's not conciously going to give up more weight than he thinks he can overcome......if you're getting three strokes in a round of golf then a more realistic spot would be more than three strokes....
 

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Marco.

Well said. You hit the nail right on the head. I get tickled every time i read where someone says to someone else that they need X amount of accounts in the offshore industry to be able to shope for numbers and what have you.
How many times have you lost your balance at one joint only to have the exact or close to that number go up in another?
Well i have done that more times than i care to count.
Re-load bonus nice if that is happening to others as it has happened to me. Lost one week slighty with reload bonus actually showed plus for the week.
Offshore numbers are almost painted anymore. Now on the Local front i Always get the best of the numbers. Wished i had a dozen locals.
 

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It seems to me that players are being forced offshore for one reason, and I've mentioned it before. IF the Vegas books now have a piece of the offshore action...hidden of course...that would be why they are tightening things up in Vegas! Why else would they keep on rejecting large plays, and doing everything else in the past to scare away the action that large players used to give them? The biggest reason of course is the reduction of taxes that the books have to pay. Needless to say, it also works to the players advantage of not having to pay taxes on their winnings!

I know certain players...big ones at that...that have been steered offshore by sportsbook managers. Why would they do this unless they had a piece of the offshore action?
 

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Sportsbook managers probably know someone at the offshore joint and they get a finders fee for getting the player to that joint! JMO
 

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stuckinvegas, I have your answer why Vegas is telling big bettors to go offshore. The empty suits in Vegas are only interested in one thing, the bottom line at the end of the month.

They do not want to see the sportsbook in the red at any month. If the sportsbook director allows big bettors he risks losing his job if these big bettors have a good 2 months in a row. Now, put yourself in the shoes of the sportsbooks head guy. Do I take this big bettors bets and risk losing my job or do I tell them they would be better off betting off-shore.

Also keep in mind, that the sportsbook directors in Las Vegas are company people nowadays that got their job by putting their time in. They have no clue on how to take on the sharps. Like the dork that runs several books on the strip, Robert Walker of the MGM/Mirage. A real clueless fuck. No Season Win Totals in any sport including the NFL, no 2-team teasers. No large bets allowed either unless you are a big table player and have sucker written all over you.

Its just the way it is in this city. Its unfortunate. I wish the mob was still in control. Either them or Howard Hughes!!
 

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Well said Winbet and also Marco.

For these books to boot winners and still charge -110 is criminal. The industry should be -105 since these books have very few expenses and its cheap to tak a bet online.

As for the bonuses, most of them can be "whored" for +ev though the amount you give back in juice for wagering requirements make them pretty skinny and not worth any real cash, but enough to turn a loser into break even. The thing is it's probably the same 95% that lose that also don't bother calculating the best way to take advantage of their bonus and so weak books can continue to bleed rec. gamblers.
 

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