Is it smart, long term?

BooksWorstEnemy · Oct 9, 2005

Last night, I took U67.5 in the Arizona State game.

Score at the half was 13-10 and the second half total was 31.5.

I decided to take the second half over. That way, if the game ended with an actual total of 55 thru 67 I would win both bets, but it was impossible to lose both bets.

Is it smart to do this? Or does the second half hedge end up costing you as often as it helps you?

Later,
Books Worst Enemy

wilheim · Oct 9, 2005

Depending on juice involved I like to do the same thing for a portion of my original bet. Play 25 or 30 percent of it at the half on attractive middle.

wil.

D2bets · Oct 9, 2005

I had U68 and thought about that but passed. Under was near-cash (well, maybe 85%) so you really need to think of it as a separate play. If you liked the O31.5 in itself, and get a good number then fine, but don't do it routinely. And like wil said, you might do it for a portion only.

6nout · Oct 9, 2005

From a trading point of view it's a good play but same as all other bets, you either have an edge or you don't and if not you're paying juice to the books (just like when scalping you're usually getting the worst of it on one side).

drunkguy · Oct 9, 2005

you are giving up a massive edge on the original under to try to hedge back

unless you like the 2nd half over on its own, I wouldn't be buying back

think of it this way...every time you are ahead at the half (by betting the game total), you are potentially giving away part of your winnings by hedging. But when you are way behind, you don't have that opportunity and are sitting on a very bad bet (for example, if the halftime score in that game were 35-14 instead of 13-10)

Is it smart, long term?

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