ALCS: LA Angels @ White Sox - A Serious Discussion

ATG · Oct 11, 2005

Gentlemen:

The White Sox have just been installed as a -175 favorite to advance to their first World Series since 1959 . . Im a little surprised by how heavy a fave they are (almost as much as the St. Louis cardinals who are ay -184).

I absolutely love the Pale Hose in game 1 with Contreras against Byrd but am not sure if I will be laying that kind of wood for a series wager. I think the Halos match up well against the Sox as they are both similar type scrappy run-manufacturing teams that play with a lot of heart.

Any thoughts on ALCS series wagers? :103631605

ATG · Oct 11, 2005

the odds on White Sox for the series at Pinnacle are fluctuating wildly between -175 and -160 . . . . they jumped just now back up to -165.

I locked in 10 units at -160

ATG · Oct 11, 2005

GAME 1 OFFICIAL PLAY:

Chicago White Sox RL -1.5 (+123)

The travel and partying on Halos will take its toll. Also Paul Byrd versus a rested Contreras . . I'll take my chances that Pale Hose take Game One comfortably.

ITALIRISH · Oct 11, 2005

ATG,

I don't post here much (as you can see) but I do visit this site quite often. I agree 100% with your analysis. I love the SOX tomorrow. Contreras has been pitching very well and the SOX will come into tomorrow well rested. The Angels have had to fly back and forth across the country and will be tired after their hard fought series with the Yankees. Rest is always better at this time in the season - I have never bought the argument that a rested team might come out rusty after an extended lay off. The SOX definitely have the advantage tomorrow and I will be on them heavy. The line isn't up yet at BETCRIS but I am willing to lay some wood tomorrow, and my go for the RL as well.

With that said, I like the Angels for the Series. The Angels have a habit of getting behind in a series and coming back (lost game 1 vs. Yanks and did it in 2002 as well). This year smells alot like 2002 actually. The Angles never die. I think the SOX may be a heavy favorite b/c of the uncertainty surrounding Colon. However, the Angels didn't need him to beat the Yanks and I think the Angels' starting pitching is strong enough to beat the SOX. Also, the SOX are hyped b/c they swept Boston. However, Boston was very overrated this year and really struggled down the stretch as their pitching was very weak. Boston had no bullpen. The Angels don't have the same problems and always seem to come up with the clutch hits in the playoffs despite the fact that their offense wasn't great in the regular season.

I will be on the SOX heavy tomorrow, with a play on the Angels for the series AFTER game one. The odds should go way up after the Angels are down 1-0 (may be +200 or more). This may a bit of a risk for me but I just don't see the Angels winning tomorrow after the tough fight with the Yanks. F-Rod went 1 and 1/3 today and Escobar will be unavailable. I think its the SOX tomorrow in a blowout as they will jump on Byrd early. I could see Gregg coming in and giving up a few more and the Angels deciding to rest their key relievers for game 2. I think the Angels take game 2 and go back to the OC tied at 1-1.

Just my thoughts....

ATG · Oct 11, 2005

thanks for your imput ITALIRISH . . Good Luck to you :toast:

ITALIRISH · Oct 11, 2005

GL to both of us tomorrow! Hopefully the SOX make it easy on us...

winkyduck · Oct 11, 2005

might wait until after G1 - hope the angels lose - and jump on them +250ish to win the series after losing G1

freddy66 · Oct 11, 2005

myself i am not sure the CWS should be more than -125 favorite over LAA.

degenerategambler · Oct 11, 2005

Won't play the series but will look to take advantage of game prices like tonite at +175 on the Angels. I think this line is over compensating for LAA travel of the last couple of days.

Stickie · Oct 11, 2005

Chis sox win this one hands down. LAA will be tired. Sox well rested and ready to strike.

degenerategambler · Oct 11, 2005

U gonna lay 200?

Winning Streak · Oct 11, 2005

I agree with you 100%.

Good Luck!!!

See my thread I posted.

:dancefool

jwblue · Oct 11, 2005

Angels have no chance. White Sox in 4 or 5.

Their rotation is in shambles. They were able to get by the Yankees because of their sub par pitching. White Sox have superior pitching and better lineup.

IS

UnderDawg · Oct 11, 2005

You know what happens when everybody likes one team(Sox),yeah, they get burned.
Just keep in mind that the Angels have what the Sox don't and that's HEART my brothers.

JMO GL

nhoj · Oct 11, 2005

Under

No one here no about Heart. that is where big games are won and lost. These are professionals and they will come with their A game.

GameBreaker · Oct 11, 2005

UnderDawg said:
You know what happens when everybody likes one team(Sox),yeah, they get burned.
Just keep in mind that the Angels have what the Sox don't and that's HEART my brothers.

JMO GL

You dont think the white sox have heart??????????????????????????????? but the angels do???????????????????

I watched that CWS team sweep the red sox, clinching in boston, and the 1 thing that I saw over and over was HEART, DETERMINATION, and PASSION

I think you are WAY OFF

nhoj · Oct 11, 2005

Like the Soxs don't get me wrong

They do have heart but just not sure they will bring it tonight. I think the players may think this is a easy winner and not play with as MUCH heart as the Angels team that has been drug all over hell and back. I feel the Angels know they need this game and it is going to be a hard win. I think the WS will want to win but think it will be a easy victory. That is where I think the heart will side on the Angels. Hey as far as I know the Angels could be happy with there win over the Jankees and just give up. I really doubt it because in this day in age every player has a bonus in their contract about playing in the WS. Along with a team bonus for getting there. SO I am baseing my play more on Value. Value plays have been losers this season so maybe I will be a loser. But think it is the path I like to follow tonight.
I knew when I posted this it would not be a welcome topic since 90% of the player will be on the other side. Not trying to change minds just open eyes to other opinions.
Good luck to all. I will be playing this one Like this 220/200 +1.5 and 100/155 ML probally play the over in case Angel just flat out suck and WS blow them out. That bet would be $100 over 8.5

JoeFalls · Oct 11, 2005

tough row to hoe for the angels w/no 20 game winner and ace colon. sox have home field advantage and will throw a decent rested starter every game. they have a very deep bullpen & el duque is money. el duque also had a perfect 2 inning save vs clev in the last game of the season. sox are deep and rested and home field advantage. angels aren't going to win the series after losing game 1. angels need a rainout during the series, so that their ace lackey can maybe pitch 3 games, albeit he won't be rested in his final 2 games.

Bettinman12 · Oct 11, 2005

Adrenaline

I don't think the travel and events of last night catch up to the Angels until Game 2. I think they play on pure adrenaline tonight and have a good chance in this one. I don't think you can write off the angels in game 1. They may not win but it is good value compared to laying the chalk with the Sox. This is for the AL penant. The Angels won't be taking the game off.

jdub6810 · Oct 11, 2005

It's certainly going to be difficult for the Angels to get significant runs off Jose Conteras. The Halos will be tired & the timing will be off, there's no way around it. Heck Yanks & halos both hit poorly last night, the halos just got bloopers instead of pop flies.
Rather, the risk lies in whether the White Sox can put up runs. If they don't do a lot of damage to paul byrd, it might look like an even game after the 7th inning. I still don't respect the ChiSox offense, it was abysmal in early/mid september.
With soooo much of the public on the favorite side, unexpected things are likely to happen tonight. I would lean on the under instead of taking a side, because it's more likely the white sox will win with all the advantages, but it's a lot of juice to lay against a playoff team that's gonna put up a fight. Save the chaulk for plays on the Royals or Mets, not playoff teams who care.
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