REALITY of sportsbetting

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2005

Made what I thought was a very good post the other day that was in response to the question "is it really worth it to scalp, when some plays only net one $50?"

Responded with this thought........

A player that plays 1100 to win 1000 on a game and plays 100 plays AND is fortunate to be a GREAT handicapper and hit 55% of his plays is going to have $55,000 in winnings and $49,500 in losses for a NET profit after it is all said and done of $5,500.

So essentially that indiviual was netting $55 per play.

THINK ABOUT THAT.............ONE JUST RISKED wagering $1,100 a game and hit a percentage very very very very few will ever attain lifetime(55%) and netted $55 per game after ONE-HUNDRED PLAYS!

For those that think ANY amount is not worth it scalping, the majority(not all) of them should not even be gambling period!

-FISH-

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2005

Now I understand, there are many shops that offer the punter a much better run for their money with low-vig options.

The above case was for your standard 11-10 wagers, which the majority of shops still render.

-FISH-

Journeyman · Oct 15, 2005

Fishhead said:
A player that plays 1100 to win 1000 on a game and plays 100 plays AND is fortunate to be a GREAT handicapper and hit 55% of his plays is going to have $55,000 in winnings and $49,500 in losses for a NET profit after it is all said and done of $5,500.

So essentially that indiviual was netting $55 per play.

THINK ABOUT THAT.............ONE JUST RISKED wagering $1,100 a game and hit a percentage very very very very few will ever attain lifetime(55%) and netted $55 per game after ONE-HUNDRED PLAYS!

For those that think ANY amount is not worth it scalping, the majority(not all) of them should not even be gambling period!

-FISH-

This is an outstanding piece of Fish...

REDEYE · Oct 15, 2005

Outstanding

PatrickMcIrish · Oct 15, 2005

Good post Fish. Anyone who thinks gambling is a get rich quick deal won't last long. It's like sitting at a poker table, it takes patience, skill and discipline to win in the long run.

Kiss1 · Oct 15, 2005

( Yawn )

Santo · Oct 15, 2005

Depends if you're doing it to make a living or a bit of fun, if you're doing it pro, then you look for scalps (and the -105 books are a big help in this too), and in looking for scalps/middles you find some value bets which you decide if you like or not.

If you're doing it for fun, you make a bet on the game and enjoy the adrenaline rush.

wantitall4moi · Oct 15, 2005

Fish I have been saying that and posting that FOR YEARS.

But everytime I do someone spouts about falt bettors not maximizing their potential, Kelly Criterion, Teasers, Parlays, and all that bullshit and hogwash.

I am sure 99% of the guys would LOVE to average 55 per plsy. Most simply lose and reload, and even with bonus whoring can't keep up with their losses.

It isn't any great "bonus" when these places give "free" money away, because they know the guys are going to more than likely lose it anyways. That is why I don't even think twice anymore when books are offering those 100% sign up bonuses. That is why so many books should have loyalty plans. Because a person might not lose that bonus at that particular book, but with a loyalty program they more than likely will.

The one area I would disagree with what you say is the hold. -110 is antiquated these days. So using it as a standard isn't what it used to be. I have to think -107 is more or less the average hold when you look at how places are shifting their vig ratios rather than their spreads these days.

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2005

wantitall4moi The one area I would disagree with what you say is the hold. -110 is antiquated these days. So using it as a standard isn't what it used to be. I have to think -107 is more or less the average hold when you look at how places are shifting their vig ratios rather than their spreads these days.[/QUOTE said:
If not now, it sure is shifting that way.

WHICH IS GREAT NEWS!!!

arty:

Kiss1 · Oct 15, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Fish I have been saying that and posting that FOR YEARS.

Wantitall4moi have you ever actually got off your lazy, rich ass and fuggin "worked" for living ?

At least fishfry gets paid for his advice to people who have nothing better to do then sit around all day in thier underwear staring at a computer monitor, posting, middling and scalping.

wantitall4moi · Oct 15, 2005

Wantitall4moi have you ever actually got off your lazy, rich ass and fuggin "worked" for living ?

I wouldn't call myslef "rich".

But then again a lot of "well off" people have LOST everything they own to gambling. So me not being on the street is some testimony.

Most guys with a little bit of money usually think they can bet a little bit more money. That is the ultimate reality of gambling.

People bet more to make more to bet more to make more. The vicious circle.

You could give most guys everything they want. Money, a nice house, a decent car. And most still wouldn't be happy, and more than likley within a few months it would all be gone.

People do this for the rush and the excitement not for themoney. That is why the guys that actually do do it for the money are the guys who are boring or don't do "anything". If you ask eme THAT is work enough.

But I do not gamble full time now. I actually do have some other undertakings these days.

I was working when I was in the 6th grade. I worked a "real" job until I was about 25. Just because my family had money and I happened to get some of it, doesn't mean I lived that lifestyle. Just because I do not bust my ass these days doesn't make me less of a man. I probably worked harder those few years when I was younger than most guys do their whole lives.

Commercial fishing is no cake walk, and that is basically what I did. All those goofy shows on the travel channel. I been there. I went to Alaska a few winters. But mostly just did it around New England. But surely bad enough.

So I got lucky I guess. But at least I still have what I started with, and just a little bit more. I most certainly do not look back and say "where did all my money go?" Which if more guys did ask, they would be firghtetened by the "REALITY".

Sorry fish for highjacking the thread. But I think that is a dose of reality as well.

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2005

Awesome post Wantitall.

spreadbeater · Oct 15, 2005

Nice post FISH!! :103631605

burn_in_hell_Atta · Oct 15, 2005

Wantitall, BIG BIG money in scallop fishing up here in New England. 2 years ago it was 3.50 a lb. now its 9$ a lb. Average crew of 6 brings in 40,000 lbs. on a 12 day (dock ta dock) trip.

Have lost a few friends though, tough life. this summer even the lowest guy on the totem pole made 25k per trip

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2005

burn_in_hell_Atta said:
Wantitall, BIG BIG money in scallop fishing up here in New England. 2 years ago it was 3.50 a lb. now its 9$ a lb. Average crew of 6 brings in 40,000 lbs. on a 12 day (dock ta dock) trip.

Have lost a few friends though, tough life. this summer even the lowest guy on the totem pole made 25k per trip

Wow!

Scallop fishing is big here in Florida............may have to try this when the season comes.

Kiss1 · Oct 15, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Just because my family had money and I happened to get some of it, doesn't mean I lived that lifestyle.

And it also means you sure as hell didn't work for it.

You live in a fantasy world compared to the people that actually "earn" a living.

Save your self serving horseshit for someone who actually believes half of what you preach about successful gambling.

- K1

kyhawk · Oct 15, 2005

Would guess 98% gamblers dont keep records (they dont want to know their L's). Majority just gamble for action.

Fishhead · Jun 2, 2006

Ice Man-- I believe this is the thread you were looking for sir.

:103631605

Bumped it for you.

Iceman · Jun 2, 2006

putting a $1,000 into play, I am happy profiting $10 a play. Unless you take a lead which than becomes gambling (sort of). This my friend is why they call it a GRIND. Thanks again

ppeter · Jun 2, 2006

Scalping combined with generous reload and sign up bonuses is well worth it. Even if the scalp nets little or no profit, you can satisfy a good portion of your rollover requirement risk-free :103631605