Do I hedge the WS with a 'Stros wager? pick 4

BROMOx · Oct 20, 2005

I have the following pick 4 at Pinnacle. A 21-1 shot on Chicago as it stands right now. I feel confident with a Sox win, but I have been wondering if I should take the plus money on HOU to guarantee a profit?

I should have followed my gut and hedged HOU to win the series at +240 before tonight's game, but I hesitated. Now I am only looking at +109.

Any ideas? Should I wait till after game one and get a better price on Hou if the Sox win? I'm overthinking this.

<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=top noWrap>47844726-2

2

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>3:32am

10-Oct-05
</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>5:25pm

14-Oct-05
</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Future</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>2005 MLB Playoffs Pick 4 - 2005 MLB Playof...</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+2101</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>100.00</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>2,101.00</TD></TR><TR class="" id=pitcher1><TD class=accountText colSpan=4></TD><TD class=accountText align=left colSpan=4>MLB Playoffs Pick 4

(see rules)
CWS/HOU/LAA/STL
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Illini · Oct 20, 2005

I had a dime on the Cardinals last year at 13-2. When they won game 7 of the NLCS, I was going to hedge it all. Then I saw the line and was going to have to lay -140 on the Red Sox, so I let it ride on my team. I was miserable afterwards. I would say that since you can hedge and get + money the other way, do it. I think the Sox can get it done, but the way Oswalt is pitching, it looks like they are going to have to win 4 out of 5. And Clemens is pitching 2 or 3 of those. I just know how I felt last year, but it's up to you. I would just put a dime on the Astros and enjoy cashing.

zeeman · Oct 20, 2005

I made the exact Pick 4 wager on 10-3-2005. Cws/hOU/Laa/STL +15814

$8.50 to win $1,344.19. I would wait til after game one to hedge. I believe White Sox will win game 1 with Conteras pitching. If Sox win odds on Houston winning series will be higher. But if Houston wins obviously your hedge bet will recieve lower odds.

wantitall4moi · Oct 20, 2005

BROMOx said:
I have the following pick 4 at Pinnacle. A 21-1 shot on Chicago as it stands right now. I feel confident with a Sox win, but I have been wondering if I should take the plus money on HOU to guarantee a profit?

I should have followed my gut and hedged HOU to win the series at +240 before tonight's game, but I hesitated. Now I am only looking at +109.

Any ideas? Should I wait till after game one and get a better price on Hou if the Sox win? I'm overthinking this.

<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=top noWrap>47844726-2

2

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>3:32am

10-Oct-05

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>5:25pm

14-Oct-05

</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Future</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>2005 MLB Playoffs Pick 4 - 2005 MLB Playof...</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+2101</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>100.00</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>2,101.00</TD></TR><TR class="" id=pitcher1><TD class=accountText colSpan=4></TD><TD class=accountText align=left colSpan=4>MLB Playoffs Pick 4

(see rules)
CWS/HOU/LAA/STL

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If you are going to fudge a ticket use a calculator LMAO. That should be paying 21,010 not 2101. Nice try though.

But even if you have the sawbuck on it then yes you hedge somewhere. Now or later. If now you have to outlay a bit to make the 1000 at tth eodds available. If you wait you need to hope the Sox lose the first game and you get +150 or so in the series then. Save a little bit, but a little more risky.

D2bets · Oct 20, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
If you are going to fudge a ticket use a calculator LMAO. That should be paying 21,010 not 2101. Nice try though.

Want, if you're going to make fudging accusations, you should re-calculate several times before posting. LMFAO

zeeman · Oct 20, 2005

Wantitall Seems A Bit Confused. Were Rooting For The White Sox's To Win Game 1, Then It Would Be A Good Time To Hedge On Houston. No Hedge Needed On Sox, Because Our Pick 4 Ticket Pays If Sox Win.

BROMOx · Oct 20, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
If you are going to fudge a ticket use a calculator LMAO. That should be paying 21,010 not 2101. Nice try though.

But even if you have the sawbuck on it then yes you hedge somewhere. Now or later. If now you have to outlay a bit to make the 1000 at tth eodds available. If you wait you need to hope the Sox lose the first game and you get +150 or so in the series then. Save a little bit, but a little more risky.

How's that 6th grade math coming, Want? If there are too many digits for you to follow, I would suggest a calculator. What an idiot!

Anyway, I think I'm going to take the advice here and wait till after game one. I'm really looking to hedge at +200 or more, so I might be waiting till Houston heads home down 0-2. I think the Sox roll here, so even if I do hedge, it will be for less.

Nice hit Zee. Very good odds. Wow. How many did you play? I only had one other one, so I feel very lucky. I had HOU/NYY/STL/CWS, also for $100. I figured if the Yankees made it past Anaheim, they would take Chicago. But if not, the Sox would roll. Wish I had $100 on YOUR card.

JudgeWapner · Oct 20, 2005

I would hedge, especially since you can get plus odds.

ronaldn · Oct 20, 2005

If you will bet $1052.85 at +109 odds on Hou you will make 1048.15 no matter which team wins. That figure includes the initial $100 bet.

wantitall4moi · Oct 20, 2005

Well all I know is that most guys were betting 12 bux to get back 2100 and change(several over at the other place), another guy here just said he has a possible 1344 coming form an 8.50 wager. So a guy that has bet $100 bux figures to make alot more that 2101. I am only working with the stuff he threw up there. Either his odds were wrong or his bet amount is wrong.

I doubt very highly the odds dropped that much to make a 100 dollar play pay what these guys are showing a 12 dollar bet will pay, math or no math. Some guys were getting 158 -1, his same exact wager is only paying 21-1? Something doesn't add up.

As for being confused I was also under the impression that CWS/Hou/LAA/StL translated to CWS World Series winner/Hou World Series Loser(runner up)/ Angels ALCS loser(runner up)/Card NLCS loser(runnerup). So you need Hou to lose Game one to improve your odds on them. I think I said you need Sox to win game one, same dfference.

Labeeb · Oct 20, 2005

Wow, this is like watching a train wreck...

jasin4000 · Oct 20, 2005

Labeeb said:
Wow, this is like watching a train wreck...

:lolBIG:

GreenDoberman · Oct 20, 2005

Hedge now and take the guaranteed $1000. Are you kidding me? You really wouldn't be happy with a no risk $1000 profit.

You guys wait until after game 1, then Houston wins, now what, you panic, hope they lose game 2, before you know it you have that sick feeling like Illini described last year.

Take down $1000 and enjoy the games with no stress.

BROMOx · Oct 20, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Well all I know is that most guys were betting 12 bux to get back 2100 and change(several over at the other place), another guy here just said he has a possible 1344 coming form an 8.50 wager. So a guy that has bet $100 bux figures to make alot more that 2101. I am only working with the stuff he threw up there. Either his odds were wrong or his bet amount is wrong.

I doubt very highly the odds dropped that much to make a 100 dollar play pay what these guys are showing a 12 dollar bet will pay, math or no math. Some guys were getting 158 -1, his same exact wager is only paying 21-1? Something doesn't add up.

Now normally I would ignore such shit since you obviously have no clue, but I enjoy schooling your ass, so pay attention. Let's walk through this slowly shall we?

Zee made his bet on October 3rd. At that point in time, the playoffs had not yet started. That means he picked STL over SD, HOU over ATL, then HOU over STL ... just in the NL. He also chose Angels over NYY, CHI over BOS, and then CHI over ANA. And finally CHI over HOU to win it all. He chose the winner of 7 series. Thus the +15,814. There were a ton of combinations available at that time, thus the smaller $8.50 bet. I'd guess he made multiple plays on different combos. Hell of a pick though and a nice return.

Now skip ahead to October 10, when I made MY bet. The Yankees and Ana were tied in the series 2-2. That reduces my payoff since NYY were heavy favorites, and I picked the dog only after they were in a game 7. Houston had ALREADY beaten Atlanta. St Louis had ALREADY beaten San Diego. And Chicago had ALREADY beaten the Red Sox. So I basically called game 7 NYY/ANA and picked 3 other series winners. A bit easier if you ask me. Thus the reduced odds of only +2101.

Are you following me yet?

When I made my play, there were far fewer combos left, making a $100 wager an easier play then it would have been a week prior to that.

Now if something still doesnt add up, someone else can step in and tutor you. Thanks

wantitall4moi · Oct 20, 2005

My mistake I misread the dates, on the printout. I thought you bet it on Oct 05. I missed the 10 Oct part.

That makes a lot more sense. When I have seen about 10 posts from 10 different guys all with the same question and all with the super high pay outs I assumed they were all made in and around the same day and for about the same odds (145-175 to 1)

I wasn't aware it was a rolling pick 4 where they updated it daily.

I apologize. Just thought you wanted to get in on the action with everyone else, so you made up a ticket with a big payoff.

But lie I said before, tough spot, the odds are shit. You can get your hedge right now, but since you have only 100 into it, I would gamble a little more and hope CWS win game one, that will increase your odds 50-60%.

You CANNOT lose out. If CWS wins you have the original ticket, then you have outs with Houston later on. The only way you get hurt by waiting is if Houston sweeps. For a $100 original bet I would risk it. Or bet that prop as a saver.

Either way waiting is the more strategic play here.

zeeman · Oct 21, 2005

I got 158-1 odds because I place my bet before the playoffs started on 10-3-05. I believe Bromox played his bet after first round, after Boston was elimated. Bromox my strategy was to Key on th White Sox. Had St. louis & Houston Equally. Must have played about 30 different combo's. My total investment was $415. I elimated Boston, San diego from all tickets. So if Boston beat W.s. or San diego beat St. Louis all my wagers would have been losers. I also have a live ticket of Hou/WS/StL/LAA +10167 9 to win $915

Hitman26 · Oct 21, 2005

Wanti:

Why in the world would someone make up something like that and take the time to falsify ticktes? Wanti, aren't you the same guy who said there was "free" money with the Indians making the playoffs, and then you cried that MLB was fixing the games to get Boston and the NYY in the playoffs? Are you going bonkers on us?

wantitall4moi · Oct 21, 2005

Well it was supposed to be free I guess

I got out from under most of it though.

As far as people making stuff up...people do it all the time or hadn't you noticed. People are attention whores.

As for MLB fixing games. That was called sarcasm, I know it doesn't come accross that way in written form. But that is niether here nor there.

Cleveland's meltdown was monumental, and evan as bad as it was they were not out of it until the very last game. So the bets myself and a lot of other guys made were not all that horrendous, and I would make them again trust me. In the long run those odds will pay off.

Kornholio · Oct 21, 2005

Illini said:
I had a dime on the Cardinals last year at 13-2. When they won game 7 of the NLCS, I was going to hedge it all. Then I saw the line and was going to have to lay -140 on the Red Sox, so I let it ride on my team. I was miserable afterwards. I would say that since you can hedge and get + money the other way, do it. I think the Sox can get it done, but the way Oswalt is pitching, it looks like they are going to have to win 4 out of 5. And Clemens is pitching 2 or 3 of those. I just know how I felt last year, but it's up to you. I would just put a dime on the Astros and enjoy cashing.

I can account to how sick Illini was for not hedging. Took a long time to get over that one. The homer in him was what killed him. "I believe in my Cardinals" he said, as I was telling him to hedge it. Live and learn. Had the nuts to lay a dime early in the season and had guaranteed profit, and got back nothin'. Hurts.

BROMOx · Oct 23, 2005

Well, now I am looking at a possible +202 hedge. I said I wanted to wait for +200 or better, but I thought that would come after being down 0-2.

If I were going to hedge here I would probably lay $500 to win $1010. That gives me a guaranteed $1601 (CHI) or $910 (HOU). And yet, I still like Chi in the game tomorrow.

So I wait - probably to my detriment. Like I originally said, I am going to hold off till after tomorrow's game. With a Chi win, I'll probably get +300 or better and will lay $300 to win $1000 or so. If Hou wins tomorrow, I may be looking at even money, but I'd bet I can still guarantee $1K if that happens.

I guess we'll see. Thanks for all the opinions. It helped to sort all the options out.