I disagree. I know plenty of sharps who play these high profile games and profit well. They simply make a number, and when the game deviates greatly from their number they play. In other words, if they make a favorite minus 150, and the public drives the game up to 170, they take the dog and win money. This point is pretty much irrefutable.
What does it matter? Who gives a flying fuk if someone is lying. I just dont understand. When you mix in gambling you are never going to get the truth amongst one another. Period. The only thing that you can control is your own bank roll.............bet what you can afford and nothing above and the outcomes wont be such a crowning achievement or disappointment, but hell I'd rather have the satisfaction of winning. duhhhhhhhhhh.
Ok so you want to know how much I lost?
I put in $70 on Houston (Pinny's live betting) after the top of the 8th at +1450.
I was thinking of playing the White Sox at -182 for $500 after they tied it but thought I would get a better price when Houston was coming up to bat in the 10th, but Podsednik hit the HR to take care of that problem.
Now that you know I lost, does it make you happier?
PS: Sometimes when someone say they didn't play the game they are trying to say, "Its none of your GD business" but in a much nicer way.
I put in $70 on Houston (Pinny's live betting) after the top of the 8th at +1450.
I was thinking of playing the White Sox at -182 for $500 after they tied it but thought I would get a better price when Houston was coming up to bat in the 10th, but Podsednik hit the HR to take care of that problem.
Now that you know I lost, does it make you happier?
PS: Sometimes when someone say they didn't play the game they are trying to say, "Its none of your GD business" but in a much nicer way.
WEEKENDALKI said:
The dog still has to win for that logic to be sound.
It isn't like having a point spread bet up and you might get lucky and get the best of it both ways.
The only way a line move helps people in baseball is if/when they get the apex of both sides. That way they can manipulate their bets to make money both ways.
Just because ateam opens +150 and they close +180 doesn't make it anymore or less likely they are going to win or lose. It just means that if they do win the guys that got the +180 will collect a little more.
As long as your team wins it is all good. Over the long haul for guys that actually do win, it wil make a difference, but for the vast majority of the players that play it just speeds up the inevitable.
Illini said:
Public overvalues homefield (especially in baseball) which can skew a line (and in turn the +1.5) to being a good bet on the dog. So far in the World Series it hasn't been as out of control but in the championship series the home team lines were absurd (think chw -200 the first two games) and as we saw in both series - each team was more then capable of winning on the road.
