Pinny's NFL Live is beatable

cincy_ · Oct 24, 2005

... they overreact terribly. The line will jump from -196 to +140 when a drive stalls and team is forced to punt. It is just amazing.

I have tried playing interactives at WSEX and figured that I couldn't beat them - but Pinny is just learning, and they will see how they are getting scalped all night. I have all of my Pinny bankroll tied up in scalps, essentially risking nothing ($0) to win $700. If I had a bigger bankroll (or you could buy and sell like WSEX), I could have easily made another $700 by scalping.

VinnyFromTheBronx · Oct 24, 2005

shhhhhhhh

VinnyFromTheBronx · Oct 24, 2005

i have been doing the same every time they have live NFL wagering

easy $1500 profit if you have a bankroll of $10,000 or more. No Risk either

cincy_ · Oct 24, 2005

For example

NYJ down to the 8 yard line with a 1st and goal with 12:00 minutes to go. They are down by 20.

Pinny hangs this line:

NYJ +16.5 +202

If I had a bankroll, I would take the Jets and scalp back after they score a TD.

After the TD, they have

NYJ +13 +103 giving you a scalp AND a middle.

Mr.Smith · Oct 24, 2005

I honestly dont know anything about live betting, but if its that easy and your making easy money, why not shut up and keep making it?

you just brought a thousand eyes down on those lines. good luck.

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whormoan · Oct 25, 2005

Cincy, what if NY didn't score that hypothetical TD. Turnovers and shit happen in the NFL.

cincy_ · Oct 25, 2005

It's not a sure thing. I said it was beatable - and that doesn't mean I will beat it every week and that does not mean everyone will beat it either.

For example, I took Houston +1450 to win when they were down 6-4 last night because I thought there was a 4-1 or 5-1 shot of Jenks blowing the save and that the +1450 was just riduculous. When they tied, I could have scalped it and made a sure profit, but I didn't so I ended up losing $70 when I could have made a sure $400.

So just cause its beatable doesn't mean you'll beat it - and also, just because more people play it won't make it any harder (or easier) for me to win.

cincy_ · Oct 25, 2005

whormoan said:
Cincy, what if NY didn't score that hypothetical TD. Turnovers and shit happen in the NFL.

I know what you're saying - and that is why I gave the MLB example from last night. The odds are off is all I am saying.

Is the chance of Jenks blowing a 2 run lead so low that the odds should be +1450? I lost that wager, but I took the right side. Keep doing that long enough with small wagers that don't kill your bankroll and you'll make a profit.

WEEKENDALKI · Oct 25, 2005

VinnyFromTheBronx said:
shhhhhhhh

:lolBIG:

6nout · Oct 25, 2005

I've done live betting on other international sport but never on NFL, until the Falcons game I tried out Pinnys live NFL.

I saw falcons -20+190 in the 2nd Q, already took falcons -13+184 before the game and I liked this bet. So I tried to bet, and the price moved, so i tried to bet again, and it moved again, but I wanted to bet anything over +130 so kept firing and couldn't get down due to constant line moves. I wasn't trying to pick off on plays either, I was deliberately trying to get down during the ads. After much frustration I finally made 1 wager at after TD @ -13+170 and didn't bother trying to work the game which is what 'in the run' bettors like to do. Did anyone else find this an issue?

I don't want to speak too ill of pinny they are a good book that deserves praise but for live betting their system is no good I don't think the dynamic lines work properly because they have it OTB too much which is another issue.

Live betting in general is very beatable, not just NFL at pinny. For this purpose I would not reccomend pinny, at least until they improve the system. WSEX is much better for this, and tennis on betfair is the nuts! (sorry to the US majority you are truly disadvantage with Betfair's weak stance on this issue).

THECLOSER · Oct 25, 2005

sounds like a realistic out...keep it up bro

Labeeb · Oct 25, 2005

cincy, I noticed the wild price fluctuations last night as well. Although it was late when I did. I got ATL -20 +170 and was hoping for a deep drive to push the price the other way and it never happened. I was stuck on my position for the whole game with no scalp in sight. But with the fluidity of the market, it seems like there are some good moves to be made there.

trytrytry · Oct 25, 2005

i am sure they were thrilled when you bet either side of those.

i rarely see value either way on anything they hang in live in game.

they are sharp sharp sharp.

But keep doing it, you might be better than most and can crank out the cash!!!

Santo · Oct 25, 2005

Pinny need an option to turn off the verification screen on in-running, it's the extra screen that stops you getting down.

As long as customers opt-in it shouldn't be a problem.

Pinny's NFL Live is beatable

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