Looking for opinions and I know you all have one

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

Here is what I have going into tonight's game:

White Sox to win the world series: +910

White Sox to win world series 4-0: +1440 and +1372

White Sox to win world series 4-1: +700

Do I hedge this position? The thing that scares me about this game is of the first 4 games, this is the biggest pitching mismatch in the White Sox favor. In my opinion Garcia is twice the pitcher that Backe is. Garcia has also been a monster on the road this year.

BaseballGuy · Oct 26, 2005

mrpotter1 said:
Here is what I have going into tonight's game:

White Sox to win the world series: +910

White Sox to win world series 4-0: +1440 and +1372

White Sox to win world series 4-1: +700

Do I hedge this position? The thing that scares me about this game is of the first 4 games, this is the biggest pitching mismatch in the White Sox favor. In my opinion Garcia is twice the pitcher that Backe is. Garcia has also been a monster on the road this year.

Leave as is. At first I was thinking you should hedge. Then I saw your 4-1 prop.

Leave as is and put some the under 8.5.

leisure · Oct 26, 2005

mrpotter1 said:
Here is what I have going into tonight's game:

White Sox to win the world series: +910

White Sox to win world series 4-0: +1440 and +1372

White Sox to win world series 4-1: +700

Do I hedge this position? The thing that scares me about this game is of the first 4 games, this is the biggest pitching mismatch in the White Sox favor. In my opinion Garcia is twice the pitcher that Backe is. Garcia has also been a monster on the road this year.

Backe is 10-2 @ home this year... hedge your bet. Houston wins tonight. Remembber every game was close and take away the foul ball that they counted as a hit batter and this series is 2-1

BaseballGuy · Oct 26, 2005

leisure said:
Backe is 10-2 @ home this year... hedge your bet. Houston wins tonight. Remembber every game was close and take away the foul ball that they counted as a hit batter and this series is 2-1

His 4-1 prop os essentially a hedge,

Sox get the job done tonight and win BIG.

I am thinking 6-1 or something to that effect.

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

I am thinking about taking Houston on the runline. This would give me a chance to middle this game with a 1 run Sox victory.

Ego74 · Oct 26, 2005

As long as your bankroll is in good shape, I'd hold off til next game (if necessary) on a hedge. (since you have 4-1 also)

Unless you're low on sportsbook funds to bet the weekend football games, I'd just sit back and enjoy the nice capping job Potter. :103631605

Ego74 · Oct 26, 2005

leisure said:
Backe is 10-2 @ home this year... hedge your bet. Houston wins tonight. Remembber every game was close and take away the foul ball that they counted as a hit batter and this series is 2-1

point well taken.

It wouldn't be a "bad" bet to start hedging now, as Potter is in pretty much a no-lose situation unless Astros turn it around drastically (which I doubt).

Actually, I believe the series ends tonight

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

ego74 said:
As long as your bankroll is in good shape, I'd hold off til next game (if necessary) on a hedge. (since you have 4-1 also)

Unless you're low on sportsbook funds to bet the weekend football games, I'd just sit back and enjoy the nice capping job Potter.

Thanks Ego. I don't need the money but I still want it. Thought I might just try to middle it with the runline. Either way, this series doesn't come back to Chicago.

maxdemo · Oct 26, 2005

Whats the hedge price??

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

maxdemo said:
Whats the hedge price??

The way I see it I have 4 choices:

1. Let it all ride
2. Houston +120
3. Houston +1 -114
4. Houston +1 1/2 -146

Leaning towards #1

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

I forgot 1 other option: Leave it as it is and look for an opportunity for good odds on live betting if the Sox get a lead.

unconscious · Oct 26, 2005

pots, leave it until next game, if there is one.

beating.vegas · Oct 26, 2005

mrpotter1 said:
Here is what I have going into tonight's game:

White Sox to win the world series: +910

White Sox to win world series 4-0: +1440 and +1372

White Sox to win world series 4-1: +700

Do I hedge this position? The thing that scares me about this game is of the first 4 games, this is the biggest pitching mismatch in the White Sox favor. In my opinion Garcia is twice the pitcher that Backe is. Garcia has also been a monster on the road this year.

would love to help, but ....

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

beating.vegas said:
would love to help, but ....

You made it clear who you like tonight. That's why I was thinking about hedging.

:dancefool

cubsfn4ever · Oct 26, 2005

I'd hedge at least a small amount tonight on the Astros ML. I know the Sox have been red hot and Astros can't hit in the clutch but you never know and your payout on 4-0 is almost twice what you'd get on 4-1. Don't see the Astros winning 2 straight here in any event given Clemens health and their remaining pitching options should there be a game 5.

soccerbob · Oct 26, 2005

mrpotter1- I like the prices you have. LOL. When you mentioned mismatch in your post, I thought you were going to talk about the mismatch between the managers.

BigCat · Oct 26, 2005

Let it ride! Houston is done.

CapnHandi · Oct 26, 2005

Make sure you make a profit today - all in a day's work - take Houston +120 (if you have 2 units on 4-0, then throw 5 units on the Astros) and you'll be sure to go to bed with a smile.

mrpotter1 · Oct 26, 2005

Thanks to all that responded. I am going to stick to my guns and let it ride! If the Sox get a lead and I can get some good + money on live betting, I might take some. I will post it here to document it if I do so I am not accused of claiming a hedge after the fact. good luck all