Success in Middling

pbampj · Oct 28, 2005

Approximately what percentage of your middles would you say you hit?
2 out of 10? 5 out of 10?

Hitting one out of 10 middle attempts would constitute a break-even point, given juice consists of 10% of your wager. Is my math correct in this statement?

Doug · Oct 28, 2005

1 out of 20 is break-even at -110.

D2bets · Oct 28, 2005

1 out of 20 at -110 is breakeven and who lays -110 anymore anyway.

jwunderdog · Oct 28, 2005

If you hit 2 out of 10 books wouldn't be in business.

Fishhead · Nov 1, 2005

DougJ said:
1 out of 20 is break-even at -110.

DougJ is exactly right, as usual.

It all comes down to what VIG you are laying on both sides.

In the above example, look at it this way.

-2.5 110 to win 100
+3.5 110 to win 100

With each middle like that, you are risking $10 to win $200..................so one would need to hit 1 out of 20 to breakeven.

bulldog77 · Nov 1, 2005

In college football, is a -8/+10 at -110 both ways a worthwhile middle attempt?

Redneckman · Nov 1, 2005

D2bets · Nov 1, 2005

bulldog77 said:
In college football, is a -8/+10 at -110 both ways a worthwhile middle attempt?

Can't say to a mathematical certainty that this is not profitable, but I would probably pass on this at those odds. I can find much better regularly. My #1 advice to doing middles is to use reduced juice. Even at -107 both ways then I would play this for sure.

bigplay · Nov 1, 2005

bulldog77 said:
In college football, is a -8/+10 at -110 both ways a worthwhile middle attempt?

I am going to say no it is not.

royalfan · Nov 1, 2005

bigplay said:
I am going to say no it is not.

And you would be wrong.

D2bets · Nov 1, 2005

royalfan said:
And you would be wrong.

Care to show your work on that... What % chance do you have for each of the 8,9,10?

Muddy · Nov 1, 2005

........

trytrytry · Nov 1, 2005

bulldog77 said:
In college football, is a -8/+10 at -110 both ways a worthwhile middle attempt?

this is one to do for sure.

arty:

Doug · Nov 1, 2005

Fishhead said:
DougJ is exactly right, as usual.

It all comes down to what VIG you are laying on both sides.

In the above example, look at it this way.

-2.5 110 to win 100
+3.5 110 to win 100

With each middle like that, you are risking $10 to win $200..................so one would need to hit 1 out of 20 to breakeven.

Fish : After furthur thought, I think we should change that to 1 out of 21. Lose 20 at $10 per = lose $200, then hit the 21st for $200... you're even, so 1 out of 21 is even, unless I'm missing something ! 1 of 20 would actually show a profit.

Fishhead · Nov 1, 2005

DougJ said:
Fish : After furthur thought, I think we should change that to 1 out of 21. Lose 20 at $10 per = lose $200, then hit the 21st for $200... you're even, so 1 out of 21 is even, unless I'm missing something ! 1 of 20 would actually show a profit.

Correct sir!

D2bets · Nov 1, 2005

I think you guys saying this is a good middle probably haven't actually worked the math on it.

Doug · Nov 1, 2005

D2bets said:
I think you guys saying this is a good middle probably haven't actually worked the math on it.

D2 is probably right ! 2 points in baskets for sure, in foots it depends more on which 2 points ( key numbers) and college isn't as stable as NFL, overall.

assassin · Nov 1, 2005

HAts off to all those that find the 2 point middles.

I played around last year while tying to meet the Skybook rollover and had a + result on college basket middles of 1.5 points (mostly). These are easy to find with sky and anyone else offering the free 1/2 point (SB did this on either tuesday or thursday, I forget which). Much better success with that than with Pro ball.

gl to anyone middle, d2Bets is the guy to ask.

Doug · Nov 1, 2005

assassin said:
HAts off to all those that find the 2 point middles.

I played around last year while tying to meet the Skybook rollover and had a + result on college basket middles of 1.5 points (mostly). These are easy to find with sky and anyone else offering the free 1/2 point (SB did this on either tuesday or thursday, I forget which). Much better success with that than with Pro ball.

gl to anyone middle, d2Bets is the guy to ask.

I respect D2's opinion as much as anyone else's, he's very sharp !

quantumleap · Nov 1, 2005

Something has to be said here about middles. Just because you have a middle doesn't mean you have a good bet. I remember last year I had the Phoenix Suns at something like 200 for the total and they were shooting the lights out. The line went up to something like 210 so I bought a middle for the same amount that I bet my original over 200 at.

It turns out the total ended up around 220. I felt I lost a bet simply by trying to get a big middle since my original bet was a good one.

The moral to the story is that if you get a good middle you may not necessarily have a good deal. You may wish to make your second bet somewhat less than your original bet.