negative turnover ratio is a good thing

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Rx Wizard
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I know this may seem odd to some of you but I Like to bet teams that have a negative turnver ratio. If they are a below average NFL team(not horrible, with bad qb) or better I think it is a positve when looking for a team that has not caught alot of breaks. The reason I say this is I know that some handicappers like Ace-Ace(don't get me wrong, not bashing him) use this stat the complete opposite of me. I like to think things will even out and some teams have had some unlucky bounces. I have heard Fezzik and Phil Steele say the same thing that most times a negative turnover ratio is not a negative stat. I just think this is one stat that is misleading. Wondering how some of you guys feel about this.
 

International Playa
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what do the #'s support? if i bet all teams with negative TO ratio, would i win?
 

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Interesting angle Ice, in the NFL the only thing I handicap is the number and my gut. Love the plethora of books and some different numbers, that and a tendancy to play dogs, gotta love the + points.
 

Rx Wizard
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sherman said:
what do the #'s support? if i bet all teams with negative TO ratio, would i win?
don't have data on it. My point is people over-react to wins and losses. I just think when looking at a game that a team lost from the previous week with a -3 turnover ratio I wouldn't hold that aganist them or the team that won(+3 turnover ratio) will in my opinon be over-valued by the public. They can't be expected to catch these breaks in the long run and I don't think the public handles these stats the right way.
 

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ice man said:
don't have data on it. My point is people over-react to wins and losses. I just think when looking at a game that a team lost from the previous week with a -3 turnover ratio I wouldn't hold that aganist them or the team that won(+3 turnover ratio) will in my opinon be over-valued by the public. They can't be expected to catch these breaks in the long run and I don't think the public handles these stats the right way.

definitely something to chew on....thanx for bringing it up......
 

Rx Wizard
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wish Fezzik would chime in, would do alot better job explaining it than me. Gambling is all about getting value and I think negative turnover ratio creates BIG value.
 

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