decided I was going to turn it up a notch this year. Have read dozens of books and great info on net and felt ready to do this. Put aside $10,000 for a bankroll decided that I would follow the guys at SSB (proven track record) and also use my picks . I Would bet 1-3 units a play, $100 a unit(1-3% of br) and would keep metticullaous(sp) records.I figured I would bet about 35 units or $3,500 a week per sport. Here's the problem, realistically 90% of gamblers will hit between 45%-55% over 600 units (length of one pro sport season betting 35 units a week). If you hit 55%( which would be exceptional over 600 plays) you would be up 33 units or in my case $3,300. The exact opposite is 45% winners (which is as likely as 55%) and you would be at -93 units or -$9,300. I know this is a simple way of looking at it(their are low vig's shops, bonuses,etc) but it is very realistic and most gamblers don't figure out how stacked against them the odds really are. The risk is close to 3x more (-9,300) than the reward (+3,300). Not trying to sound like some math wiz because I am not but if you take a piece of paper and jot down some REALISTIC figures taking this hobby to another level may make you think twice.
Ice, I think that with a wide range of outs (ie square books and sharp books and reduced juice outs) you are omitting a key point. Line shopping will add % points to your win %. I followed Slamdunks plays for a couple years and he was terrible against the posted line but I broke even with him because of the close calls. Free half points on NBA sides under 10 points are huge. If you are playing 50-50 games, a coin toss, then getting a half or full point better, and sometimes even 1 and a half points better against public teams, makes you a solid winner. In sports that are so well followed, handicapping is overated and line shopping is underated...JMHO...GL2U
RR I agree to a certain extent as I have been involved with this in some form for over 10+ years. My point was I just came out of a bad stretch (22-42) and lost close to 25% of bankroll. It makes you stop and look at the big picture and decide what are your goals and if this is worth it. If you want to make quite a bit of money at this you must bet quite a bit of money and when that happens I would say it is easy to lose twice as much as you can hope to win and people need to realize this. Just cause the games are supposedly 50-50 doesn't mean the risk-reward is 50-50. WAY more to lose than win.
i don't really understand your logic on the "45%-55%" range that you describe....
have you tracked your own success historically? or this sports service you were going to use? your standard deviation on your projected win pct. shouldn't cover a 10% range.
you should have at least a couple thousand plays under your belt before you consider going into this biz full-time. it takes a couple thousand (not hundred, THOUSAND) plays to realize a potential pro's true long-term win pct.
anyone can get hot (or cold) over a couple hundred plays. both whether they actually have actual skill or are just an amateur.
try tracking your own plays on paper, betting with imaginary money. of that $10,000 bankroll, just make it pretend money but do everything else normal. check all the various outs you would use and shop for the best lines. record those lines and the plays you would make each day. but just don't risk any real money. after a couple seasons of practice (i would recommend a minimum of at least 2 seasons of practice per sport), you'll know your own ability and whether or not you can make it.
the win pct. standard deviation over a 1,000 plays (if i remember the math correctly) is usually around 2%. meaining, if you're long-term win pct. is 55%, you can expect to make anywhere from 54-56% over any given 1,000 plays.
i know it doesn't sound like a lot of fun to do ALL the work associated with handicapping and then not betting any actual money on it (for my suggested practice phase)...but that's what separates the serious pros from the wannabes. the pros are willing to do the hard work it takes to get to the top. the wannabe want a get-rich quick scheme that requires no work at all. it just doesn't work that way.
from what it sounds like, you're probably just better off rationing some party money and gambling on the games just to have fun, never betting more than you can afford to lose for entertainment. but just entertainment. but hey, nothing wrong with that. it can be great entertainment!
good luck, whatever you decide to do!
although, if you do decide to give it a shot, make sure you go back over your records and test various money management strategies. i recommend only 1 strategy, flat betting (1% of bankroll on every single play)
you talk about risking 1-3 units per play, i strongly advise against that. if you feel that strong about your 3 unit plays, then skip the 1 unit plays and just the 3 units. they're the only ones that will effect your bankroll in the long run.
it's better to just bet the same amount on any play you feel you had the advantage in your favor.
but don't take my word for it, record a couple thousand plays and then go back over them, starting from the beginning and test all the different money management theories out there. most people will NEVER actually do this, and they'll never know for sure which works best. that's their own laziness that will cost them money in the long run.
have you tracked your own success historically? or this sports service you were going to use? your standard deviation on your projected win pct. shouldn't cover a 10% range.
you should have at least a couple thousand plays under your belt before you consider going into this biz full-time. it takes a couple thousand (not hundred, THOUSAND) plays to realize a potential pro's true long-term win pct.
anyone can get hot (or cold) over a couple hundred plays. both whether they actually have actual skill or are just an amateur.
try tracking your own plays on paper, betting with imaginary money. of that $10,000 bankroll, just make it pretend money but do everything else normal. check all the various outs you would use and shop for the best lines. record those lines and the plays you would make each day. but just don't risk any real money. after a couple seasons of practice (i would recommend a minimum of at least 2 seasons of practice per sport), you'll know your own ability and whether or not you can make it.
the win pct. standard deviation over a 1,000 plays (if i remember the math correctly) is usually around 2%. meaining, if you're long-term win pct. is 55%, you can expect to make anywhere from 54-56% over any given 1,000 plays.
i know it doesn't sound like a lot of fun to do ALL the work associated with handicapping and then not betting any actual money on it (for my suggested practice phase)...but that's what separates the serious pros from the wannabes. the pros are willing to do the hard work it takes to get to the top. the wannabe want a get-rich quick scheme that requires no work at all. it just doesn't work that way.
from what it sounds like, you're probably just better off rationing some party money and gambling on the games just to have fun, never betting more than you can afford to lose for entertainment. but just entertainment. but hey, nothing wrong with that. it can be great entertainment!
good luck, whatever you decide to do!
although, if you do decide to give it a shot, make sure you go back over your records and test various money management strategies. i recommend only 1 strategy, flat betting (1% of bankroll on every single play)
you talk about risking 1-3 units per play, i strongly advise against that. if you feel that strong about your 3 unit plays, then skip the 1 unit plays and just the 3 units. they're the only ones that will effect your bankroll in the long run.
it's better to just bet the same amount on any play you feel you had the advantage in your favor.
but don't take my word for it, record a couple thousand plays and then go back over them, starting from the beginning and test all the different money management theories out there. most people will NEVER actually do this, and they'll never know for sure which works best. that's their own laziness that will cost them money in the long run.
Very Good advice Christian, but way more work than I ever did. I have never adised anybody to follow another player even though most of us have done it (the one exception would be BW in baseball in the late 90's, freakin incredible). 10 K is enough of a BR to make money if you are not greedy and keep your unts low and take free money when it is there....GL2U
Christian, have read alot of your stuff lately and find quite interesting. First of all I only handicap the NFL and have records from past 5 years and hit around 54%. I follow the guys on Sharp's in the other sports( due to my own time constraints I can't put everything into handicapping all the games every day) and they have documented over thousands of play. I have numerous outs (5-6 off shore). I am a firm believer that win% doesn't get talked about enough and all everyone wants to talk about is money management. It still boils down to picking alot of more winners than losers. Trying to make any substanial money at this ($10,000 a year) would take betting close to $500,000 a year and their is going to be huge swings in your bankroll that most people may not be able to mentally handle.
i would have to disagree with $10k being enough of a bankroll....
if you just want to be a successful part-timer and make extra cash on the side (while keeping your real job), then any amount can be an adequate bankroll, and $10,000 would be fine...
but to do this professionally, i would recommend AT LEAST $50,000 starting bankroll, but even that is very low. ideally, $100,000 starting bankroll would be good ($1,000/play)
anything less than that would be pretty tough, cause remember, you gotta take money out of your winning every couple months to cover the next couple months of your living expenses. people always underestimate how they'll actually have to take out of their bankroll/winnings to sustain themselves. i think $100,000 is a good starting bankroll goal.
as far as following other players (i'm assuming you meant sports services), you're about 99.9% right
but there are a couple honest, legit sports services. not many, but there are a few.
i pay a guy to do all my college FB and BB.....i do all 4 pro sports myself, there's just no way in hell i could ever do college, just not enough hours in the day. in fact, i'm even thinking of paying someone to do NFL for me starting next year.
but i would track someone for at least 500 picks, MINIMUM, ideally for about 1,000 picks. you can pretty much know what a capper is made of long-term after a 1,000 picks or so. it may cost a little to track a capper/sports service that long, but if you think the guy's legit, wouldn't you rather pay to find out, and NOT risk your own money until you're sure, rather than pay to find out, and HOPE he's legit and find out he's not and lost all your money in the process!?
if you just want to be a successful part-timer and make extra cash on the side (while keeping your real job), then any amount can be an adequate bankroll, and $10,000 would be fine...
but to do this professionally, i would recommend AT LEAST $50,000 starting bankroll, but even that is very low. ideally, $100,000 starting bankroll would be good ($1,000/play)
anything less than that would be pretty tough, cause remember, you gotta take money out of your winning every couple months to cover the next couple months of your living expenses. people always underestimate how they'll actually have to take out of their bankroll/winnings to sustain themselves. i think $100,000 is a good starting bankroll goal.
as far as following other players (i'm assuming you meant sports services), you're about 99.9% right
but there are a couple honest, legit sports services. not many, but there are a few.i pay a guy to do all my college FB and BB.....i do all 4 pro sports myself, there's just no way in hell i could ever do college, just not enough hours in the day. in fact, i'm even thinking of paying someone to do NFL for me starting next year.
but i would track someone for at least 500 picks, MINIMUM, ideally for about 1,000 picks. you can pretty much know what a capper is made of long-term after a 1,000 picks or so. it may cost a little to track a capper/sports service that long, but if you think the guy's legit, wouldn't you rather pay to find out, and NOT risk your own money until you're sure, rather than pay to find out, and HOPE he's legit and find out he's not and lost all your money in the process!?
the guys I follow are well documennted and legit. I think many guys on this forum will back my stament about them. I have heard both sides of the argument about betting flat versus weighted. A good example about how hard this game is for us part-timers is over 240 plays going 130-110 is as likely as going 110-130 especially for a guy who does this part time. The 130 win guy wins $900 ( betting a $100 a game). The 110 win guy LOSES -3,300( $100 a game). 130 wins out 240 games is a very good job but the upside isn't all that rewarding compared to the downside.
you're right about money management often getting talked about more than win % but that's because so often nowadays, there are plenty of competent cappers who still end up broke! and it's not because they can't pick winners, it's cause they can't manage their money.
they bet three plays on sunday at 1 unit and win them all, then they have a strong feeling on monday and bet 3 units and lose. 75% win pct. for the weekend and they only just broke even!
or they can pick winners long-term, but happen to hit a short-term losing streak and start to panick. then they start chasing their losses, doubling up for no reason, etc. etc.
you get the drift. but if you're only trying to bet NFL and make a living off it, you need to be betting about $5,000/game to make enough to live on! it's pretty tought to make a living off just one sport, any sport (MLB aside, possibly)!, but let alone the NFL, the one sport that gives you the least amount of plays per year (compared to MLB, NBA or even NHL)
if you have a 54% win. over the past 5 seasons, that's really good. you probably have what it takes for the NFL at least (since i'm assuming that win pct. was with only part-time handicapping). if you could commit full-time each week, you should be able to raise that at least one percentage point.
why don't you pick another sport and give it a shot? NBA just started, let the first 10 games get played and then start handicapping. in basketball, the most important stat is the last 10 games played by each team (what happend season-to-date doesn't mean much, just stick with the last 10 games played or so for each team).
of course you'll have to learn how to weigh home and away scores differently and to subjectively factor in travel and team chemistry considerations, etc.....
unless you have a sports service you're sure than give you at least 55% or so over at least a few hundred plays per year (ideally 1,000 or more per year), i wouldn't recommend going at it full-time while relying mostly on them. remember too, you have to factor in how much it's going to cost you for their service?
most pros do at least 2 sports, some 3 or 4....and some do what i do too, often pay others to take care of the rest (like college FB + BB). that's how i can end up with over 1,500 plays a year, often many more. that's how we can end up with the big profits. it takes money to make money. you have to be churning your bankroll a LOT! a couple dozen, or even a couple hundred NFL plays won't get it done. and it takes a lot of wagers placed to both guarantee your long-term win pct. (anything can happen over a small number of plays) and to recognize large profits.
they bet three plays on sunday at 1 unit and win them all, then they have a strong feeling on monday and bet 3 units and lose. 75% win pct. for the weekend and they only just broke even!
or they can pick winners long-term, but happen to hit a short-term losing streak and start to panick. then they start chasing their losses, doubling up for no reason, etc. etc.
you get the drift. but if you're only trying to bet NFL and make a living off it, you need to be betting about $5,000/game to make enough to live on!
it's pretty tought to make a living off just one sport, any sport (MLB aside, possibly)!, but let alone the NFL, the one sport that gives you the least amount of plays per year (compared to MLB, NBA or even NHL)if you have a 54% win. over the past 5 seasons, that's really good. you probably have what it takes for the NFL at least (since i'm assuming that win pct. was with only part-time handicapping). if you could commit full-time each week, you should be able to raise that at least one percentage point.
why don't you pick another sport and give it a shot? NBA just started, let the first 10 games get played and then start handicapping. in basketball, the most important stat is the last 10 games played by each team (what happend season-to-date doesn't mean much, just stick with the last 10 games played or so for each team).
of course you'll have to learn how to weigh home and away scores differently and to subjectively factor in travel and team chemistry considerations, etc.....
unless you have a sports service you're sure than give you at least 55% or so over at least a few hundred plays per year (ideally 1,000 or more per year), i wouldn't recommend going at it full-time while relying mostly on them. remember too, you have to factor in how much it's going to cost you for their service?
most pros do at least 2 sports, some 3 or 4....and some do what i do too, often pay others to take care of the rest (like college FB + BB). that's how i can end up with over 1,500 plays a year, often many more. that's how we can end up with the big profits. it takes money to make money. you have to be churning your bankroll a LOT! a couple dozen, or even a couple hundred NFL plays won't get it done. and it takes a lot of wagers placed to both guarantee your long-term win pct. (anything can happen over a small number of plays) and to recognize large profits.
rob, as you can tell from my posts over the past few days i'm never shy about offering my opinions, but when it comes to scalps and middles and everything that goes with that....
i'm really not qualified to talk about the subject. i never do it. i spend enough time just getting my regular plays each day (i do all 4 sports), that i just don't have enough time or energy (or desire, to be honest) to spend looking for middles.
that said, i've heard a lot of stories about sharps really cleaning up on them. and i have no reason not believe at least some of those stories. so i would imagine there are plenty of guys who really add to their bottom line each year by doing that. and probably some that specialize in that style of betting soley. that's just not me.
i've only been doing this full-time a few months, after a few years of part-time handicapping, and i'm still adjusting to extra work hours. i'm only just now getting settled in. i'm sure i'll start practicing in those techniques in the near future though. especially with the low vig shops now, i can imagine the odds are increasing greatly in their favors. but you brought up a good point though.
i'm really not qualified to talk about the subject. i never do it. i spend enough time just getting my regular plays each day (i do all 4 sports), that i just don't have enough time or energy (or desire, to be honest) to spend looking for middles.
that said, i've heard a lot of stories about sharps really cleaning up on them. and i have no reason not believe at least some of those stories. so i would imagine there are plenty of guys who really add to their bottom line each year by doing that. and probably some that specialize in that style of betting soley. that's just not me.
i've only been doing this full-time a few months, after a few years of part-time handicapping, and i'm still adjusting to extra work hours. i'm only just now getting settled in. i'm sure i'll start practicing in those techniques in the near future though. especially with the low vig shops now, i can imagine the odds are increasing greatly in their favors. but you brought up a good point though.
feel very confident on my NFL selections as i spend about 10-15 hours a week handicapping games and shopping lines. Just don't have that time or confidence in any other sport. I know how hard this is and feel that hard work pays off in everything you do, and I can't give that kinda of commitment to it. In your opinion do you think someone can take a $10,000 bankroll and follow a proven winner and stay dedicated everyday bet year round (3-5 sports) and make 3% ROI ( my goal from beginning) or is it a big waste of time because that is the way I have begun to feel (worst part is I have won ove r9+ units in last 3 days).
the best way to judge a handicapper is not by win % (think about MLB cappers and all the moneylines)
the best way is to judge by return on ever dollar invested.
i shoot for .05 cents return on every dollar invested.
ex: if i have 1,000 plays and risk $1,000 each play, that's a total of $1,000,000 of churned bankroll....
i shoot for .05 return on that, or $50,000 (50 units)
you should judge your cappers on what their ROI is per every $ invested.
i can't tell you how much your cappers will make you each year, cause i don't know how many plays they'll give you. that's the most important part (along with their ROI per $ invested)
my assumption would be, if your capper is a year-round guy (minimum MLB, NFL and NBA) he's probably giving out, well, actually i'm guessing...let's say he gives you (in addition to your own NFL plays) 500 plays per year.
at $10,000 bankroll, over 500 plays at $100 play (don't go higher than this, trust me), that's $50,000 in churned bankroll....a competent capper should net you anywhere between $2,000-$3,000....
$2,500 profit over 500 plays is the equivelant return of 55% if all 500 plays were standard 11/10 plays.
but that's at 500 plays! that's not a lot at all. there are plenty of good services out there that can give you 300-400 in MLB (some services a lot more), 200-300 in NBA, 200 in NHL, 200 in college BB, etc.
if you had the $, you could easily pay services for a good 1,000-1,500 plays per year. and if they're good, they could net you $5,000-$7,500
but remember, for all those service plays, you're probably gonna be paying out the ass. at a $100/game bettor, those service fees can really hurt your bottom line.
you have to factor in the cost of the service when figuring out your expected ROI each year (or season).
so, YES, a $10,000 bankroll following good advice from a good service can make you $5,000 or so a year (provided that you have enough plays each year)....but make sure you factor the cost of the service to see if it's even worth your time.
the best way is to judge by return on ever dollar invested.
i shoot for .05 cents return on every dollar invested.
ex: if i have 1,000 plays and risk $1,000 each play, that's a total of $1,000,000 of churned bankroll....
i shoot for .05 return on that, or $50,000 (50 units)
you should judge your cappers on what their ROI is per every $ invested.
i can't tell you how much your cappers will make you each year, cause i don't know how many plays they'll give you. that's the most important part (along with their ROI per $ invested)
my assumption would be, if your capper is a year-round guy (minimum MLB, NFL and NBA) he's probably giving out, well, actually i'm guessing...let's say he gives you (in addition to your own NFL plays) 500 plays per year.
at $10,000 bankroll, over 500 plays at $100 play (don't go higher than this, trust me), that's $50,000 in churned bankroll....a competent capper should net you anywhere between $2,000-$3,000....
$2,500 profit over 500 plays is the equivelant return of 55% if all 500 plays were standard 11/10 plays.
but that's at 500 plays! that's not a lot at all. there are plenty of good services out there that can give you 300-400 in MLB (some services a lot more), 200-300 in NBA, 200 in NHL, 200 in college BB, etc.
if you had the $, you could easily pay services for a good 1,000-1,500 plays per year. and if they're good, they could net you $5,000-$7,500
but remember, for all those service plays, you're probably gonna be paying out the ass. at a $100/game bettor, those service fees can really hurt your bottom line.
you have to factor in the cost of the service when figuring out your expected ROI each year (or season).
so, YES, a $10,000 bankroll following good advice from a good service can make you $5,000 or so a year (provided that you have enough plays each year)....but make sure you factor the cost of the service to see if it's even worth your time.
I have ran all the numbers. $50,000-$60,000 a sport 4-5 sports close to $300,000 dollars bet a year and I'm only shooting for 3% ROI( i too feel this number isn't talked about by posters enough because I bet most don't keep records). $10,000 profit was the goal. Been at it for a few months( betting everyday) now and have been just spinning my wheels and had a few bad stretches. Be careful I too have read all the JR Miller stuff and have heard from people smarter than me that alot of his writings are a crock.You would lose all credability with Fezzik(professional and frequent prescription poster) if you even admitted to follow any of his beliefs. Keep up the good work you seem to have the right ideas about how to beat this game but remeber you must pick alot more winners than losers if you want to survive.
well, in mr. miller's defense, his book is still the best NFL handicapping book i'v ever read.
most people don't like him because of his unique views on money managment. i happen to agree with him on most of that though.
i've done some experiments and i know what works for me. i know what my risk tolerance is. i risk 1% of my bankroll on all my bets. i can deal with that. most people would feel like it's too low.
but i have a LOT of bets, especially now. in a couple more weeks, once NBA heats up, i might have 4 or 5 NBA plays, 2 or 3 NHL plays, and 5 or 6 college FB plays (the college FB plays from the service i buy) all on one saturday! i don't like risking any more than 15% of my bankroll on any given day....
not because it's any more dangerous than having only 5 plays or 10 plays, if you feel you have an advantage in a game, bet it. no matter how plays there are. but it's just a psychological thing. i have a low risk tolerance when it comes to sports betting. 1% for me is manageable.
oh, one more thing....most bettors are quick to dismiss other people's views (who they disagree with) without ever researching them.
now sure, if some guy who's constantly broke and picking losers tells me that i shoud change something or bet a different way, i'll probably just politely blow him off and not give it a second thought....
but if someone, who's proven to me they know what they're doing, gives me some advice, even if i've been doing it the opposite way for years, i have no problem with doing some research and trying to figure out what they're talking about.
the worst thing you can do is think you know more than anyone else. always be open to advice and to learning new techniques. most people claim to be open to new ideas, but really aren't. they would never take the time to actually test out a new betting strategy over their previous 500 plays, they would never rehandicap the day's plays with a new strategy to see if they can find what someone is finding, etc. etc.
that's their loss. anyway, let me know how it goes with your service. as long as you've tracked them long enough and know they're long-term winners, and you keep your betting unit low enough, you should be fine. good luck!
most people don't like him because of his unique views on money managment. i happen to agree with him on most of that though.
i've done some experiments and i know what works for me. i know what my risk tolerance is. i risk 1% of my bankroll on all my bets. i can deal with that. most people would feel like it's too low.
but i have a LOT of bets, especially now. in a couple more weeks, once NBA heats up, i might have 4 or 5 NBA plays, 2 or 3 NHL plays, and 5 or 6 college FB plays (the college FB plays from the service i buy) all on one saturday! i don't like risking any more than 15% of my bankroll on any given day....
not because it's any more dangerous than having only 5 plays or 10 plays, if you feel you have an advantage in a game, bet it. no matter how plays there are. but it's just a psychological thing. i have a low risk tolerance when it comes to sports betting. 1% for me is manageable.
oh, one more thing....most bettors are quick to dismiss other people's views (who they disagree with) without ever researching them.
now sure, if some guy who's constantly broke and picking losers tells me that i shoud change something or bet a different way, i'll probably just politely blow him off and not give it a second thought....
but if someone, who's proven to me they know what they're doing, gives me some advice, even if i've been doing it the opposite way for years, i have no problem with doing some research and trying to figure out what they're talking about.
the worst thing you can do is think you know more than anyone else. always be open to advice and to learning new techniques. most people claim to be open to new ideas, but really aren't. they would never take the time to actually test out a new betting strategy over their previous 500 plays, they would never rehandicap the day's plays with a new strategy to see if they can find what someone is finding, etc. etc.
that's their loss. anyway, let me know how it goes with your service. as long as you've tracked them long enough and know they're long-term winners, and you keep your betting unit low enough, you should be fine. good luck!
