Thanks guys. Hitman, since you're here, I'm sure you know how every Bama fan is convinced the Tide is going to win the national championship - your #'s I think are dead on. 4moi, your #'s are probably more accurate for a diverse customer base. Anybody have a stat for Alabama as a home dog (in Tuscaloosa, not B'ham) last 5-6 years?
How are you going to say that getting 5.5 extra points and only paying -200 is "right on"? When the ML ( a simple SU win) is costing you -145 (at pin) and probably upwards of -150/155 everywhere else. So at LSU +3 (alt line)you are GETTING 3 points and paying only 45 cent more? Not likely. If anything you will pay MORE than the standard for those points since you are getting the fave, and a road fav at that, as teh dog.
My numbers are high, but you wanted numbers for people to load up on Ala. I would shade them down 50-60 cents for a more realistic break.
My numbers are high, but you wanted numbers for people to load up on Ala. I would shade them down 50-60 cents for a more realistic break.
Wanti:
If your numbers were even close to accurate, do you realize how much money one could make by playing teasers? The spread is LSU 3 and if you were to play a 6.5 teaser, and tease them to +3.5 you would have a huge advantage according to you.
Using a 6.5 teaser laying -110, all you need on the opposite alt spread is +260 to break it even. You are offering over +400 with your lines.
You are so far off on this one my friend.
If your numbers were even close to accurate, do you realize how much money one could make by playing teasers? The spread is LSU 3 and if you were to play a 6.5 teaser, and tease them to +3.5 you would have a huge advantage according to you.
Using a 6.5 teaser laying -110, all you need on the opposite alt spread is +260 to break it even. You are offering over +400 with your lines.
You are so far off on this one my friend.
This is a nine year old memory so I can't vouch for its accuracy BUT....
In 1996 Alabama was at LSU, LSU -3. I posed this same question to a guy at Don Best. The numbers we came up with were Alabama -3 1/2 +180, Alabama -7 +300. I think these numbers were discounted 40 cents from what the "real" number would have been.
Anyway,thanks for the input.
In 1996 Alabama was at LSU, LSU -3. I posed this same question to a guy at Don Best. The numbers we came up with were Alabama -3 1/2 +180, Alabama -7 +300. I think these numbers were discounted 40 cents from what the "real" number would have been.
Anyway,thanks for the input.
That is why they dont post alternate spread in football, and if they ever did they wouldn'y be able to tease them.
All I know is that anyone with half a brain isn't going to take LAY -3 +180, when they can take PK +145. How assinine would they be?
Generally 1/2 pt is worth 25-27 cents. So if you wanted to go that route you could say that Ala (which is +2.5) and you inverted them to -3. That is a 5.5 point swing. 5.5 X 26(average it) = $1.43. SO you add 143 to 145, that would be -3 +288, at the very least(since 3 is a "key" number I would add another 25 cents to it to be sure. I figure if you are willing to take a dog by a spread you get a mark up (like Pinny does with their alt RLs) and that would add another premium on the dog. Maybe not as much I I figured, but as I said I inflated them about 50-60 cents. But if you take the 288 (that it "should" be and add a quarter for the 3, and another 20 cents for a premium of taking the dog minus points. That gets you to +333. That is the least anyone should be willing to bet Ala -3 with.
All I know is that anyone with half a brain isn't going to take LAY -3 +180, when they can take PK +145. How assinine would they be?
Generally 1/2 pt is worth 25-27 cents. So if you wanted to go that route you could say that Ala (which is +2.5) and you inverted them to -3. That is a 5.5 point swing. 5.5 X 26(average it) = $1.43. SO you add 143 to 145, that would be -3 +288, at the very least(since 3 is a "key" number I would add another 25 cents to it to be sure. I figure if you are willing to take a dog by a spread you get a mark up (like Pinny does with their alt RLs) and that would add another premium on the dog. Maybe not as much I I figured, but as I said I inflated them about 50-60 cents. But if you take the 288 (that it "should" be and add a quarter for the 3, and another 20 cents for a premium of taking the dog minus points. That gets you to +333. That is the least anyone should be willing to bet Ala -3 with.
Wanti:
Look at NFL Alternate Lines when they come out Friday at Pinnacle and then we can further this discussion. You do believe that Pinnacle is sharp right? What you see Friday will blow you away. If you are right with your theories on Alternate lines, then you are going to be able to make a killing by destroying Pinnacle.
Look at NFL Alternate Lines when they come out Friday at Pinnacle and then we can further this discussion. You do believe that Pinnacle is sharp right? What you see Friday will blow you away. If you are right with your theories on Alternate lines, then you are going to be able to make a killing by destroying Pinnacle.
Doing it your way on tonights game:
So Miss -6.5 (-110 juice)
I want to buy twelve half points to get the line down to So Miss 0.5. 12*25cents (which you believe a half is worth). That means I would be laying So Miss minus a half a point for -410 juice. Dude the moneyline was only 260.
Go rework your math.
So Miss -6.5 (-110 juice)
I want to buy twelve half points to get the line down to So Miss 0.5. 12*25cents (which you believe a half is worth). That means I would be laying So Miss minus a half a point for -410 juice. Dude the moneyline was only 260.
Go rework your math.
Ok Wanti:
I emailed Simon and Henry from Pinnacle and here is what they said the alternates should look like.
Dear Sir,
With LSU at it's current price of -3 (-108) and the total at 37 (over -110), the alternates would look like the following:
[size=+0][size=+0]Alabama -2.5 (+157)
Alabama -3 (+171)
Alabama -3.5 (+181)
Alabama -6.5 (+233)
Alabama -7 (+268)
Alabma -7.5 (+282)
If you have questions, please email our multi-language 24 hour Customer Service Department at csd@pinnaclesports.com.
Regards,
Customer Service Department
Pinnacle Sports
[/size][/size]
I emailed Simon and Henry from Pinnacle and here is what they said the alternates should look like.
Dear Sir,
With LSU at it's current price of -3 (-108) and the total at 37 (over -110), the alternates would look like the following:
[size=+0][size=+0]Alabama -2.5 (+157)
Alabama -3 (+171)
Alabama -3.5 (+181)
Alabama -6.5 (+233)
Alabama -7 (+268)
Alabma -7.5 (+282)
If you have questions, please email our multi-language 24 hour Customer Service Department at csd@pinnaclesports.com.
Regards,
Customer Service Department
Pinnacle Sports
[/size][/size]
Hitman26 said:
You might want to rework your math... 12* 25= 300 MOST places HAD So Miss -280/300. I also said GENRALLY. It isn't as simple as multiplying it out. That is also mostly on the ML tallying at well. Pinnacle is their own beast. Genrally for them it is 18-25 cents.(up to a certain spread) then they just throw numbers up that look good.
As for what Pinnacle wrote back to you. Find it hard to believe and certainly WOULD NOT take those numbers(on the Ala side), that is just stupid and bad gambling.
Why on earth would I take a team at -3 for +171 when can bet them at a PK for +141? Not to mention they are only valuing the2.5 to 3 at 14 cents? I know it isn't as relavant in NCAA, but is definately worth more than 14 cents. At the 3 to 3.5 it is only a frigging dime. Trust me if they were offering LSU +3.5 -191, even -201 I would MAX bet that line EVERY TIME. Especioally considering they are only -153 on the ML. I am getting 3.5 points for 38 cents? You would have scapable middles out the ass if they offered those numbers. Or some middles that would be costing you 5-10 cents.
In the 173/174 game, one side is +2.5 -105. To buy up to +3 they are charging 19 cents. So you are paying -124 on a regular game you can buy. Why would they onyl give you a 14 cents premium on a number that is supposed to be harder to acheive? You laso notice that on their drop downs that I am sure you were using to figure this out, they don't always even out. I have seen some -2 teams that you could BUY and get BETTER number than the ML by 3-5 cents. Example a -2 fave -105, buy down to PK pay -120, ML -125. I have seen that A LOT. So even they themsleves aren't balancing it out.
Granted MLs are supposed to be a seperate entity, and not tied to the straight wager pools. But anyone beting the ML -125 versus BUYING down to -120 is losinga lot of money in the long run. If their holds on their ML were alittle lower you could scalp them (with a lead) when/if their lines move just a little bit.
I am not going to argue or debate. Alt spreads are another simple gimmick to fleece people out of their money, and if people are actually betting those numbers that they sid they would offer on Alabama and not LOAD UP on LSU at their corresponding numbers, then no wonder they are making so much money.
Personally I beat Pinnacle like a red headed step child, and make no bones about it. And I don't have to use gimmick plays or get lucky to do it. I use their own "sharpness" against them.
Anyone with half a brain and a little time can do it. It certainly doesn't take a genius. Thatis why Iam so suprised when people say that Pinnacle beats them weeek in and week out. My advice to them...stop gambling.
